Bitget 对话北大交易员米哥：十年 9000 倍，运气定上限，纪律守下限

The cryptocurrency market can create a fortune overnight, but it can also lead to disappointment and departure just as quickly. There are very few people who can navigate multiple bull and bear cycles and persist for ten years.

Today, we have invited Bitget's senior user, Brother Mi, a professional trader who graduated from Peking University and entered the crypto market in 2016. He experienced the ICO frenzy and multiple deep bear market drawdowns, achieving a 9,000x return over ten years without ever leaving the market. He may not be the luckiest, but he is one of those who have stayed the longest. What kept him going wasn't luck, but discipline—and an unquenchable curiosity about the market.

Led by a Peking University Alum, Doubling Money on Ethereum in a Week Changed His Career Path

Brother Mi entered the crypto market driven by a friend's encouragement.

During his time at Peking University, Brother Mi had never engaged in any form of trading, instead adopting an extremely conservative financial style, "keeping money in Alipay's Yu'ebao," thinking "earning a few bucks a day was pretty good."

The turning point came in 2016. His childhood friend—also a Peking University alum, proficient in various computer technologies—mentioned Bitcoin and Ethereum to him. Ethereum had just launched in 2015, and 2016 saw the first wave of altcoin hype. Coincidentally, that same summer, an Italian friend of Brother Mi bought a few Ethereum with a few euros before returning home, when the price was around three or four euros each. After a summer, it increased by three or four times.

"It wasn't a lot of money, but back then, everything you bought would go up or down a lot," his friend told him, and suggested he give it a try.

The usually conservative Brother Mi decided to dip his toes in, putting in a few thousand yuan. It doubled in a week, and he felt the thrill of cryptocurrency.

After that, he started downloading apps specializing in aggregating Ethereum news and market data, researching for two full weeks. At that time, Ethereum's core narrative was the "world-class decentralized supercomputer," and the more he researched, the more interesting he found it. After his research, he made a decision that seemed quite bold at the time—he invested all of his girlfriend's savings, 70,000 yuan, into Ethereum and held it all the way to the 2017 bull market.

It's worth noting that the childhood friend who brought him into the circle later took a completely different path—delving deep into primary market investment, joining Bitmain to handle VC business, and even participating in the company's IPO bell-ringing ceremony. "We took completely different directions. I'm purely a secondary market trader, he's a primary market investor. Two Peking University classmates, both persevering in the crypto industry—pretty interesting."

The ICO Frenzy and Unforgettable Drawdowns:

2017 was the craziest year for the entire crypto market. The logic behind the ICO frenzy was brutally simple: a newly issued project token, once listed on an exchange, would almost certainly go up. In random WeChat groups, posting a project whitepaper would instantly fill a 500-person group, with everyone scrambling to send money for subscriptions, endlessly filling up the queue. "Back then, if the coin you invested in only doubled, you'd be disappointed—because most good projects did at least 5x, many did 10x, and the really powerful ones did 100x. Especially between May and October 2017, it was truly intoxicating."

Brother Mi also invested in a large number of ICO projects and learned many trading lessons: "For example, I often thought the market was about to drop, so I cleared all my positions. Then I'd wake up to find it went up 30% to 40%. Panicking after being left behind, I'd quickly buy everything back. I realized my mindset was completely off." This experience made him realize: either don't trade, or seriously learn how to trade. From that moment on, he began systematically studying candlestick charts, starting with technical analysis and slowly gaining practical experience with real money.

After the frenzy, two drawdowns followed.

The first was on September 4, 2017. China announced a ban on ICOs and exchange operations, causing the market to crash 50% within a week. For Brother Mi, this wasn't the worst part—many of the altcoins and ICO tokens he held went to zero, resulting in a total drawdown of 70-80%. "Most of my friends... maybe only me, my childhood friend, and another guy didn't leave the circle. Almost everyone else left."

The second drawdown was in the first half of 2018. The ICO projects he had bet on in 2017 began to implode one after another: more than half of the teams ran away directly, and while the other half didn't run, their tokens never got listed on major exchanges, making it impossible to cash out. "There were no DEXs back then, so if you weren't on a major exchange, you couldn't withdraw. That money just vanished."

With these two major drawdowns combined, his assets shrank significantly, and almost everyone around him left. But Brother Mi did not.

Trading Methodology: Luck Defines the Ceiling, Discipline Defines the Floor

When talking about his trading methodology, Brother Mi puts it clearly:

"Luck determines your ceiling—it decides how much you can make in one trade. But discipline determines your floor. Discipline ensures I won't go bankrupt."

Many people see Brother Mi frequently calling trades or saying "liquidation again" on Twitter and think he's a reckless gambler. But after a deep conversation, you'll find a very clear position management logic within his trading system.

His core strategy is: use relatively small capital for futures trading, and once the account grows to a certain size, immediately withdraw at least half. "I might start with a few tens of thousands of yuan, grow it 50x in a month. Then I'll withdraw at least half. The remaining half continues to trade—it could be liquidated, or it could double again. But as long as the half I withdrew goes into a better investment target, the overall result is a win."

He admits that he gets liquidated every year, sometimes once every few months. "That's normal. You're using very small capital to bet on a highly volatile asset. You have to assume liquidation will come and be prepared for it."

In his view, spot accounts and futures accounts operate on two completely different logics.

"Spot is where accumulation happens. If you just DCA into Bitcoin and Ethereum, your coin count will keep increasing. As long as you're bullish on the long-term cycle, this accumulation will eventually pay off." He even started building a retirement fund for his parents a few years ago, regularly buying Bitcoin weekly and allocating some to Ethereum as long-term asset reserves.

Futures are a different story. "Futures are more for short-term trading. You assume you'll get liquidated, so when you profit, you must withdraw half. That's an iron rule."

The funds he withdraws are used to DCA into high-quality assets or buy physical gold. "Every month, I go to China Construction Bank to order a gold bar. This prevents me from impulsively turning it back into futures capital. Money sitting on an exchange isn't yours. Numbers in a bank account are also illusory. You need to turn it into real things in life—buying a house, buying a car, traveling with your family—that's what truly belongs to you."

He summed up the essential difference between spot and futures in one sentence: "Spot is for accumulating wealth; futures are for chasing excess returns. The two should not be confused."

Predicting the Market Script: The Relatively Scientific 'Guesswork' Behind is Capturing Liquidity

Brother Mi has a series of widely circulated Bitcoin price predictions on Twitter, from 73,000 to 80,000, then breaking below 60,000 to 94,000, 74,000, 137,000… These predictions have often been quite accurate on large timeframes, earning him significant attention and some controversy.

He is surprisingly frank about this: "To some extent, it's guesswork. Predicting the future is all guesswork; I'm not a god. But there is a logical basis behind it—it's relatively scientific guesswork."

His core analytical framework is built on the logic of liquidity capture.

"A bear market is a zero-sum game; the overall capital pool is shrinking. When liquidity is insufficient and the market oscillates at a certain level for too long, it will inevitably move to an extreme position to capture liquidity. Either it pumps to trap a batch of longs, or it dumps to shake out a batch of holders, completing a redistribution of liquidity."

He gave a specific example to illustrate this logic: "If bad news is everywhere—Trump, Iran, Israel fighting like that—and Bitcoin still can't break below $60,000, what does that mean? It means there isn't enough fuel for it to continue falling. The market needs to go up first, trap a batch of longs, and then when those longs are forced to cut losses in the subsequent drop, it can complete an effective decline. That's why I said it would rise to $80,000 first, then break below $60,000. It's not random. It's based on market liquidity logic, plus years of experience and intuition from reading charts."

Brother Mi also pointed out that the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd will be a very important time node: "Before the elections, they (the establishment) will likely try to make the stock market perform well. If the stock market takes off, funds will flow into the crypto market, and Bitcoin will also rally. But be careful, this rally might end early because the 'smart money' will already be very fat by then and will jump ship early, leaving retail investors stuck at the top. So heading into October, I personally will become very cautious."

Why He Chose to Trade on Bitget: Never Lagged Once During Major Volatility

Regarding the choice of trading tool, Brother Mi gave a straightforward evaluation of Bitget.

"Out of all the exchanges I've used, Bitget has the smoothest app. For example, during the major volatility on October 11th, other platforms lagged terribly, but Bitget never lagged or crashed once. That is crucial."

He revealed his typical trading volume: small positions are 5 to 10 BTC, large positions are 50 to 100 BTC bought in two or three batches. "Liquidity is absolutely not a problem; slippage doesn't have a significant impact."

Regarding fees, he also mentioned that with VIP rates stacked, "the fees are basically negligible"—a real cost saving for a trader.

Advice for Newcomers: Going Bankrupt Twice is the Start of an Investment Career

At the end of the interview, Brother Mi shared a few pieces of advice for newcomers.

First, never borrow money to trade crypto. "Don't use money you don't have. Don't take out loans to trade crypto. It's highly irresponsible behavior and extremely risky."

Second, separate spot and futures management. "Use your spot account for DCA-ing into high-quality assets to accumulate wealth. Use your futures account for short-term trading, but assume you will get liquidated. When you profit, you must withdraw half."

Third, turn the money you earn into real things. "The money sitting on an exchange isn't yours. The money in your bank account is also illusory. If you don't convert it into real-life enjoyment—buying a house, buying a car, traveling with family—that money is virtual. Spending money on yourself is when it truly becomes yours."

Fourth, taking profit is harder to learn than cutting losses. "Learning to cut losses might take one try. But learning to take profits might take a lifetime. Because everyone has greed."

He ended with a sentence that might be the most refined summary of his 10-year trading career: "I often say that going bankrupt twice is the true start of an investment career. Once might not be enough; you need to learn more lessons."