Trump opposed prediction markets for a full two days

Original Author: ShenChao TechFlow

At a White House press conference, Trump said with a grim expression: "You know, the whole world has unfortunately become a casino to some extent."

When he said this, his son, Donald Trump Jr., was simultaneously serving as a paid advisor for Polymarket and an investor and board member for Kalshi, the two largest prediction market platforms.

48 hours later, Trump did a complete about-face, expressing support for prediction markets.

This is arguably the most brilliant piece of political performance art of 2026.

Within 48 Hours, He Changed His Answer

The starting point of this story is a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier.

Earlier this year, this soldier participated in the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. During the operation, he placed bets on Polymarket, wagering that Maduro would be ousted before the end of the month and that the U.S. would take military action against Venezuela. In total, he made 13 bets, with a principal of approximately $33,000, ultimately profiting over $400,000.

Afterwards, he tried to delete his account and obscure the flow of funds through cryptocurrency. It didn't work. Federal prosecutors arrested him on charges of misusing classified government information, wire fraud, and commodity fraud.

Reporters took this case and asked Trump: What do you think about prediction markets?

Trump's first answer was: "I've never really been in favor of this industry." He said gambling had turned the world into a casino, his tone laced with a hint of moral concern.

48 hours later, he changed his tune.

Trump reversed his stance, claiming that "very smart" people he knows believe the industry is worth supporting, and stated that the U.S. should not fall behind in this field.

Two answers, from the same person, less than two days apart.

The Person Tasked with Persuading Him Was His Son

Observers generally credit Donald Trump Jr. for this shift in Trump's position.

Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor for both Kalshi and Polymarket. He has long been a vocal advocate for prediction markets, especially regarding election coverage, arguing that they reflect election results more accurately than traditional media.

But his financial interest goes far beyond just the title "advisor." His advisory role at Kalshi is a paid position. Furthermore, through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, he has injected "several million dollars" into Polymarket and joined its advisory board.

One person simultaneously receiving money from two competing companies is strange enough. What's even stranger is that his father is the Chief Executive of the United States government, and the agency responsible for regulating this industry is the federal body CFTC.

A spokesperson for Donald Trump Jr. stated that he "does not interact with the federal government on behalf of any company."

The Regulator is Shrinking

To understand this story, another piece of the puzzle is needed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), responsible for regulating prediction markets, has cut 24% of its staff since Trump returned to the White House, bringing its total employee count to a 15-year low.

Meanwhile, Trump's social media company has announced plans to launch its own prediction platform, while Donald Trump Jr. is a paid advisor for Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket.

On one hand, a family member is profiting within the industry; on the other hand, the agency tasked with regulating that industry is laying off people. Current CFTC Chairman Selig explains this by saying that artificial intelligence is filling the manpower gap, making their "operational efficiency higher than ever before."

Former senior CFTC officials disagree with this assessment, expressing concern that regulatory capacity has declined: "Some of the layoffs just don't make logical sense. Things will fall through the cracks. They won't be able to pursue as many cases as they could when fully staffed."

The Maduro case is just the tip of the iceberg. Researchers have already identified multiple instances of suspected insider trading, including precise bets on oil futures just before the U.S. announced major policy changes towards Iran.

Who's to Thank for the World Becoming a Casino?

Let's return to Trump's statement: "The whole world has unfortunately become a casino to some extent."

When he said this, he probably forgot that he himself built an actual casino empire in the 1980s, which later went bankrupt after a series of failures. He also probably forgot that his own Memecoin is, in essence, casino chips.

Today, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has skyrocketed from about $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026, with over 800,000 active wallets per month.

This casino is doing very good business.

And the arrested soldier was just an ordinary player who used classified information to win $400,000 in this casino. He broke the law. But he simply did something that many people close to power could potentially do, but did it too conspicuously.

As one analyst noted: "How many of Trump's direct subordinates have already tried the same thing? No one knows. Has the Department of Justice investigated? We haven't heard anything about that either."

Trump changed his story 48 hours later, saying that "very smart" people he knows support prediction markets.

Everyone knows exactly who he is talking about.