จากที่ชี้ให้ซื้อ HYPE ที่ 150 ดอลลาร์ ไปจนถึงการเทขายจนหมดพอร์ตภายในสามวัน ความน่าเชื่อถือของ Arthur Hayes เหลืออยู่เท่าไร?

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes still have? Recently, the "father of crypto perpetual swaps" and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has faced public backlash, with on-chain detective ZachXBT publicly questioning how much exit liquidity he has created at the expense of his followers.

Dumping HYPE, NEAR, WLD

Since last week, Arthur Hayes has repeatedly executed unexpected sell-offs at market tops.

Arthur Hayes had publicly stated multiple times that HYPE would rise to $150 in this cycle. On June 1, he even engaged in a heated argument with former Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani over the latter's criticism of Hyperliquid, placing a $100,000 bet with him. However, just three days later, Hayes announced he had fully liquidated his HYPE and NEAR positions, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% that day. His sell-off indeed timed the top perfectly; after hitting a new high of $75.5 on June 4, HYPE has been on a downtrend, currently trading around $62-64.

Besides dumping HYPE and NEAR, Hayes also cleared out ZEC and WLD. His liquidation of ZEC might be justified due to the Orchard Pool attack, but selling WLD resembled a classic "KOL pump-and-dump" strategy of early accumulation, public shilling, and final distribution at higher prices.

From publicly promoting WLD to dumping it entirely, Arthur Hayes only "played the role" for three days. On June 3, a day before selling HYPE, Hayes publicly set a target of $10 for WLD, claiming it would be an alternative for investors who couldn't directly participate in SpaceX equity deals. Following the hype, WLD surged over 35% that day. But by June 6, Hayes changed his tune, stating he had sold all his WLD because the pre-market price action of SpaceX was "abnormal." This flimsy excuse caused WLD to drop over 20% that day.

The difference between Arthur Hayes and "third-rate KOLs" is his ability to craft elaborate explanations, often justifying his moves from a macroeconomic and top-down design perspective.

On June 9, Hayes published a lengthy article titled Reality Test (requiring about 20 minutes to read in full) to explain his recent actions. He argued that three factors would burst the AI bubble: rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, IPOs of major AI stocks like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and Trump pivoting against AI to win the midterm elections.

Consequently, his family office Maelstrom holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers and has sold off AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, only retaining BTC and ETH.

Don't Listen to Arthur Hayes, But Watch His Moves

Arthur Hayes' articles are adept at using extensive economic data and charts to support his arguments, sometimes layering in political and historical perspectives that can easily dazzle readers. But once you take his words at face value and invest real money following his lead, he might announce a full liquidation the next day and turn bearish, as if completely forgetting what he said the day before—while your portfolio takes a simultaneous hit.

This pattern is all too common. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly performed the "bullish one day, dumped the next" act. The most classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, Hayes promoted HYPE during a speech at WebX in Japan, claiming the token still had a massive 126x upside potential (Odaily note: price was $45.9 at the time). Yet just one month later, he announced he had liquidated HYPE, pocketing millions of dollars, citing the need to avoid token unlock risks.

This dump happened right at the peak of HYPE's previous cycle, after which HYPE began a volatile decline. It wasn't until mid-January 2026 that Hayes started buying HYPE heavily again. Looking at the price action, his entry point coincided perfectly with the bottom of that cycle.

Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA, where he publicly voiced bullish sentiment, dumped without warning, and precisely exited at the top. (Related reading: There He Goes Again! A Review of Arthur Hayes' Top-Exit Timings)

Long-time followers of Arthur Hayes have developed a methodology: Don't listen to Arthur Hayes' words, but keep a close eye on his actions—follow cautiously when he builds positions, and exit decisively when he sells.

However, if Hayes continues to pull these stunts, especially in cases like manipulating WLD's price volatility, no matter how well he disguises his excuses, his market credibility will be eroded. This is a crypto version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"—eventually, the backlash will catch up with Arthur Hayes.

In his latest article, he got one thing right: "I am still a die-hard gambler." And gamblers usually don't end well.