每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0606-0612）

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-06-13 02:24

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优质深度分析文章及一周热点恶补。

สรุปโดย AI

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核心观点：本期内容汇总了宏观局势、投资市场及加密行业的多维度动态，重点分析了AI产业被视为中国下一代主导产业的可能性、美股牛市未达极端泡沫水平，以及比特币在短期持有者普遍亏损下的脆弱性。
关键要素：
1. 瑞·达利欧认为，中国正重现“朝贡体系”格局，其注重利用AI推动发展，机器人技术将成为类似电动汽车的下一个主导产业。
2. J.P. Morgan年中展望指出，AI叙事未见顶，全球三大风险被过度定价，建议继续押注AI和美股，增配实物资产对冲通胀。
3. 高盛评估显示，当前市场亢奋程度升至历史86百分位，逼近但尚未触及2000年互联网泡沫与2021年牛市顶峰水平。
4. 全球半导体板块上周重挫，但黄仁勋访韩强化AI供应链合作，市场重新评估此次下跌是AI周期见顶还是拥挤交易出清。
5. 比特币短期持有者超95%处于亏损状态，盈利筹码占比远低于四年均值，市场基本面脆弱；机构需求降温，比特币跌破关键支撑后经历大规模去杠杆。
6. SpaceX成为史上最大IPO焦点，多个平台推出盘前合约产品，但价格差异巨大且非真实股票，本质是映射市场对最终估值的预期博弈。
7. 投资人参“白毛股神”Serenity因其精准的“瓶颈点投资法”及超高回报率获大量粉丝，但其匿名性和影响力引发争议，可能成为市场转向时的负面焦点。

Information flows too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column retrieves these valuable pieces of content from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macro Landscape

Ray Dalio: China-led "Tribute System" Re-emerges, AI Industry Will Develop Like the EV Industry

The value of currency is at risk. The credibility of the US as a global power willing to fight to defend its interests is declining. Nations acknowledge and respect China's formidable strength, but this system is not oppressive or controlling.

China focuses more on "using AI to drive development in various fields" and is committed to finding the next industrial sector where it can gain dominance. The robotics technology track can essentially be viewed as China's next-generation electric vehicle industry.

J.P. Morgan Mid-Year Outlook: AI Narrative Has Not Peaked, Reduce Cash Holdings, Increase Allocation to Physical Assets

J.P. Morgan believes the market's overly pessimistic pricing of the three major global risks (fragmentation, inflation, AI disruption) means the current volatility is precisely an entry window.

The overall assessment is: Continue betting on the AI super-cycle and US stocks, hedge against inflation with physical assets and alternative strategies, reduce cash holdings, and pay attention to emerging markets.

How Far Is the Current US Stock Bull Market from Historical Bubble Peaks?

Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist's latest assessment shows that current market euphoria has risen to the 86th historical percentile, approaching but not yet reaching the extreme levels seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 bull market peak.

For the market, this judgment implies that while the current bull market still has room to run, risks are accumulating.

Snider clearly stated, "We're not there yet," while warning that the market doesn't need to reach extreme investor euphoria to experience a decline, and historical patterns may not necessarily repeat in this cycle.

Korean Stock Plunge, Global Capital Liquidation: Has the Semiconductor Fundamentals Really Changed?

Last Friday, the global semiconductor sector suffered a severe downturn, causing a circuit breaker in the Korean stock market on Monday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the decline.

However, over the weekend following the crash, Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to Korea and strengthened cooperation with Korea's AI supply chain. The market began to reassess whether this was the peak of the AI cycle or merely a washout of crowded trades.

Related tickers: 000660.KS (Korean Stock), 005930.KS (Korean Stock), NVDA (US Stock), MU (US Stock), AVGO (US Stock), EWY (Korea ETF), SOXX (US ETF).

Korea has become one of the most sensitive markets for global AI trading, with its direction determined by overseas variables.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

The Biggest IPO in History Arrives: What Channels Do Retail Investors Have for SpaceX Subscription?

From IPO认购 activities launched by CEXs, to Pre-IPO equity tokens, and various pre-market contract products, different types of investors are competing through different methods for a "ticket" to SpaceX.

Increasingly diverse participation channels are allowing more people the opportunity to join this capital feast early.

For beginners, choosing to wait until SpaceX officially lists before deciding whether to participate is also a reasonable option.

Why Is the Price Spread for SpaceX Pre-Market Contracts So Large Across Exchanges?

Whether it's Binance, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid, the currently listed SPCX is not the actual stock of SpaceX, but a derivative designed around the future IPO price.

These products will ultimately be settled based on SpaceX's market capitalization and share data post-IPO. Therefore, their price essentially reflects the market's expectation of SpaceX's final valuation. Since SpaceX is not yet listed, these expected prices lack a definitive anchor. This uncertainty is the source of the current market price spread game.

Although the best arbitrage window may have already passed, for ordinary investors, this price game surrounding SPCX offers an excellent sample for observing the operational logic of the pre-market market.

SpaceX IPO Day One Strategy: Don't Trade It Like a Regular Hot Stock

SpaceX's IPO day one is for traders; long-term judgment requires waiting for supply tests. For traders, day one could be the "Super Bowl" of order flow trading; for investors, the first day's price movement should not be over-interpreted.

In this sense, the core question of the SpaceX IPO is no longer just whether to buy on day one, but whether participants can first determine which game they are entering: day one is about order flow, long-term is about supply absorption capacity. Confusing these two is precisely why most retail investors lose money.

BTC Sideways ≠ Industry Recession, Ansem: Bullish on These Three Underestimated Crypto Tailwinds

The problem Bitcoin faces now is the "Ponzi-like" tendency brought by Saylor's playbook, which is temporary. Until this issue is resolved, BTC will not see a clear trend-driven uptrend.

Furthermore, concerns about quantum computing are real.

These two points, combined with institutional withdrawal of liquidity, are the reasons why veteran BTC players de-risk towards excess liquidity.

With AI models improving exponentially over the next few years, three undervalued crypto tailwinds exist: 1) Open-source AI will become more competitive with closed-source AI; 2) Small teams will find it easier to build successful startups with software; 3) Stablecoins and blockchain are superior infrastructure for AI agents to conduct transactions.

Leverage Washout, Buyer Apathy: Bitcoin Still Trapped in the Waiting Game for 'The Last Drop'

Over 95% of short-term holders are in a loss position. The proportion of profitable short-term holder chips has only slightly recovered to 3.3%, far below the four-year average of 55%. The market fundamentals are fragile and highly susceptible to external shocks.

Institutional demand in the US has cooled significantly, with the pace of Bitcoin accumulation by corporate treasuries slowing down drastically. The two main pillars of market support have retreated. After Bitcoin broke below key support levels, the market experienced a large-scale deleveraging event, with a massive number of leveraged long positions being liquidated en masse, clearing out excessive speculative positions.

Market trading is primarily defensive, with the largest negative gamma exposure concentrated around the $65,000 level, which is not far from the current spot price.

Unveiling "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity: Spiritual Comfort for Anxious Retail Investors

Serenity's investment strategy involves using the "Chokepoint Investment Method" to screen for small, under-priced monopolistic companies within the AI supply chain. As over 16 stocks he has signaled have achieved returns exceeding 100% this year, and his personal year-to-date return surpasses 3612%, combined with his professional background as a former AI research scientist and rigorous analysis of the AI industry and favored companies, Serenity has accumulated a large base of loyal retail followers in the US, Europe, Japan, and Korea. His X account subscription count surpasses Elon Musk's, ranking first on the platform.

Serenity's anonymous identity, opaque investment returns, and intense desire for influence are fueling market controversy. However, interestingly, even those who question him find themselves constantly refreshing his profile page.

A bull market amplifies both returns and faith. When more and more people start making money, we all seek someone who can "scientifically explain the bubble." Serenity might just be the outward projection of this AI bull market sentiment – mysterious, professional, successful, fitting the public's full imagination of a "Stock God."

But right next to the pedestal is the guillotine, because when the trend turns, the market will look for someone to blame for the losses, and Serenity might be the most suitable candidate then.

Web3 & AI

When an LP Teaches Me Investment Using Doubao: A Private Equity GP's Career Change Story

Raising funds for small private equity funds is already tough, and with the proliferation of AI, many LPs would rather let Doubao assist with stock trading than entrust their money to GPs. As AI tools become more common, the information processing and research capabilities that once heavily relied on professional institutions are being rapidly democratized.

Apart from the final capital allocation and trade execution steps, a large portion of the work traditionally done by GPs is starting to be replaced by AI at a lower cost and higher efficiency.

The GP interviewee believes: AI is always neutral and accessible to everyone. It is a lever. GPs can use AI to enhance their knowledge system and investment strategies, creating more returns for LPs. However, AI also increases friction between GPs and LPs.

Prediction Markets

CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets, Redefining Which Events and Who Can Participate

On June 10th, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a proposed rule aiming to adjust the review process for event contracts. The CFTC is attempting to establish a framework to review contracts one by one, determining which events can be financialized and which should be kept out of the market. Sports-related prediction events are likely to be preserved with clearer boundaries. Insider trading and manipulation risks are the real issues this regulatory push aims to address.

CeFi & DeFi

Saylor Bought 1,550 BTC, But It Might Be Strategy's Worst Trade Recently

This trade shows that Strategy, for the sake of STRC's development, chose to sacrifice the core metric of MSTR's BTC per share. This is无异于 a gamble.

If sacrificing MSTR leads to a recovery in market sentiment and a stabilization of STRC's price, while pushing the adjusted net asset value back into a reasonable range, then the company can continue to rely on timely equity issuance channels for MSTR and STRC to raise funds, keeping the entire system running smoothly.

However, if market sentiment fails to improve, the situation will deteriorate rapidly. Strategy would then likely be forced to continuously sacrifice MSTR's interests to survive. The worst-case scenario would follow: the company would either be forced to delay STRC dividend payments or gradually decline amidst persistent internal friction.

If Hyperliquid is the New Nasdaq, Which Projects Are Playing the Role of Brokerages?

If the hypothesis that Hyperliquid becomes the new-generation Nasdaq holds, then the applications built on Hyperliquid that directly interface with users and optimize the trading experience would no longer be simple front-ends. Instead, they would resemble "brokerages" in the traditional financial system.

Analogous to the traditional stock market, retail investors don't trade directly on Nasdaq or the NYSE. The platforms that truly build relationships with users are often brokerages like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, or Charles Schwab. The exchange provides the underlying market, liquidity, and matching engine; the brokerage handles the user interface, product design, and experience optimization.

Currently, the most direct revenue source for these "brokerage" projects remains fee sharing and the appreciation expectation of HYPE.

Representative projects include: Trade.xyz, which brings US stocks, commodities, and indices onto Hyperliquid; Dreamcash, a capturer of mobile traffic; Ventuals, a pioneer in the Pre-IPO market; Based, the future "super app"; and Minara AI, which is proactively preparing for the era where "Agents become users".

Open combinatorial relationships and increasingly strong network effects constitute Hyperliquid's strongest moat.

Bitcoin's block height is approaching 961,632, where BIP-110 could potentially restrict non-financial data within transactions.

Supporters of the proposal argue this adjustment would allow Bitcoin to return to its core settlement function, alleviating network strain caused by inscriptions and other data-intensive applications. Critics warn that the proposal's low miner voting threshold and matching enforcement mechanism could easily lead to a chain split, forcing major exchanges and node operators to take defensive measures.