World Cup prediction battles erupt: How exchanges compete for tournament traffic

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

With the World Cup approaching, the prediction market is already heating up.

Over a month-long schedule with 104 matches, from the group stage to the knockout rounds, different teams take the field every day, sparking new discussions daily.

Because of this, the prediction market giants, Polymarket and Kalshi, have already positioned themselves ahead of the World Cup. Polymarket has launched a World Cup section, but has not yet set up a dedicated prize pool, likely still relying on LPs for incentives. Meanwhile, Kalshi has offered a $1 million prize pool for predicting the champion, but participation requires US KYC.

Polymarket’s World Cup prediction interface

However, the excitement in the World Cup prediction market isn't limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. As the event draws nearer, major exchanges are also joining this prediction frenzy. Below, Odaily Planet Daily will take you through the prediction activities of major exchanges during the World Cup.

Binance: predict.fun Takes Over the World Cup Prediction Market Gateway, Total Prize Pool for Dual Events Exceeds $2.3 Million

Based on the World Cup prediction market activities announced so far, predict.fun within the Binance ecosystem offers the highest rewards.

It's worth noting that both the Binance main site and Binance Wallet have integrated the third-party on-chain prediction market platform predict.fun, granting users access to probability trading. Consequently, Binance's prediction market activities during the World Cup are centered around predict.fun.

Binance main site prediction section World Cup activity interface

Specifically, predict.fun's activities during the World Cup are split into two parts. First, the "Predict Cup" event launched on the predict.fun platform, with a total prize pool of $2 million. Second, Binance Wallet has partnered with predict.fun to launch the Football Season PNL Trading Competition, with a $300,000 prize pool.

The "Predict Cup" event leans more towards gameplay covering the entire World Cup schedule (official link: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can select up to 5 supported teams and make predictions on markets like match results, scores, and goal counts to accumulate Fan Points and share in the prize pool. The rewards users receive depend on their points ranking at the end of each round and are distributed after that round concludes. The top-ranked player always receives 15% of the prize pool, increasing to 20% for the final. Here is the breakdown of the available prize pool for each round:

• Group Stage: $70,000 per group;
• Round of 32: $25,000 per match;
• Round of 16: $30,000 per match;
• Quarter-finals: $40,000 per match;
• Semi-finals: $50,000 per match;
• Final: $260,000.

"Predict Cup" Event Prize Pool Allocation

The $300,000 PNL Trading Competition between Binance Wallet and predict.fun (pinned by the official Binance Wallet X account) is more focused on trading performance rankings. Users need to register via the event page and trade on the Binance main site prediction market or within the World Cup category market of the predict.fun app in Binance Wallet. Final rankings are based on realized PnL generated during the event period. Users in the top 500 of the leaderboard who meet the conditions can receive rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.

Binance Wallet web version prediction market section activity interface

OKX: Earn Points for Free to Make Predictions, Maximum Prize Pool of 16.6 BTC

Unlike Binance, OKX's World Cup activity doesn't involve a third-party prediction market but is based on its in-house prediction market. Users don't need to invest funds directly to participate in World Cup predictions; instead, they earn points by completing tasks and use those points for predictions.

In terms of participation barriers, OKX's approach leans towards "free predictions + task incentives." Users can earn points by registering for the event, checking in daily, predicting match outcomes, completing new user tasks, and inviting friends. These points are then used to predict World Cup-related events.

Regarding the prize pool, OKX uses a dynamic unlocking mechanism. Currently, there are nearly 80,000 participants, and the prize pool stands at 4 BTC (approximately $247,000). When the number of participants exceeds 400,000, the prize pool will reach its cap of 16.6 BTC (approximately $1.02 million). Specifically, users can earn points in five main ways:

• Predict World Cup matches to earn points;
• Register for the event to receive an immediate points bonus;
• New users who complete tasks and register for the event receive an immediate points bonus;
• Invite friends who complete new user tasks to earn points instantly;
• Check in daily to earn points.

OKX Prediction Section World Cup Activity

Bybit: Trade to Earn Points, Use Points to Predict Matches, Maximum Total Prize Pool of $1 Million

Bybit's World Cup activity, named Football Season 2026, revolves around trading tasks and football match predictions, with a maximum total prize pool of $1 million.

The event uses a "trade to earn points, use points for predictions" mechanism. Users first earn Points by completing designated trading tasks, then use those Points to predict football match results. Correct predictions multiply the points based on the corresponding community multiplier; incorrect predictions result in a deduction of the used points.

The event is divided into three phases: Group Stage, Knockout Stage, and Final, with each phase settled independently. Users who accumulate at least 30 net Points in a single phase are eligible to share in that phase's prize pool. Final rewards are distributed proportionally based on the net Points of qualifying users.

Bybit World Cup Prediction Activity Interface

Gate: Launches World Cup Section and "$500,000 Green Pitch Prophet" Event

Gate has launched the "Green Pitch Prophet" World Cup limited-time event. During the event, users who register and complete tasks related to Spot, Futures, CFD, VIP upgrades, and other business lines can claim prediction market trial vouchers and prediction tickets. These are used to participate in prediction challenges within the designated football event prediction markets on Gate Polymarket, competing for points rankings, champion ultimate predictions, VIP jersey gift boxes, live streaming raffles, and other benefits.

The event's total prize pool exceeds $500,000, including prediction market trial vouchers, USDT rewards, trading rebates, and limited-edition football-themed merchandise.

Gate Green Pitch Prophet Activity Interface

Bitget: Main Battleground is Bitget Wallet, Launching a $200,000 Event

Bitget's World Cup efforts are primarily focused on Bitget Wallet. On the product side, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket's World Cup prediction market. Users can directly participate in on-chain predictions within the wallet and access supplementary information like AI analysis and smart money tracking.

Centered around this entry point, Bitget Wallet has launched the 2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Market Event, with a total prize pool of $200,000. Specific activities include:

• World Cup Champion Prediction, with a prize pool of $20,000. Users select the team they believe will win the championship and earn points by inviting friends. Users who correctly guess the champion will share the prize pool based on their points. This gameplay doesn't require trading, making it low-barrier;
• 20-Day Prediction Win Streak Event, with a prize pool of $80,000. Users participate in designated prediction market trades daily during the event period. Rewards are distributed upon meeting requirements, up to $10 per day and a maximum of $200 for the entire event;
• Social Watch Party, with a prize pool of $50,000. Users who join Bitget Wallet's watch-along channel can participate in random red packets and exclusive airdrops during live match broadcasts;
• First Trade Protection, with a prize pool of $50,000. First-time prediction market users who incur losses can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet. Spots are limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis.