วิธีติดตามที่อยู่ที่มีอัตราชนะสูงบน Polymarket อย่างเป็นระบบ?

Original Title:How To Find 100X Insider Polymarket Wallets To Cop，Author: Aleiah (@AleiahLock)

Compiled by｜Odaily (@OdailyChina); Translator｜Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

An address turned $35,000 into $442,000 on Polymarket, achieving a 12.6x return. Notably, this address established its position several hours before a major market movement occurred, and the trade was largely exited before the news spread to mainstream channels. This is not an isolated incident. Before the news of the political event "Venezuela Raid" became public, three addresses had already positioned themselves and collectively profited $630,000 from the same event.

If such trading occurred in traditional financial markets, one would easily think of information asymmetry. However, in prediction markets, all fund flows and position changes are recorded on the public blockchain; there are no hidden accounts or private transactions.

Being public does not mean there is no gap. The key is not whether you can see the trades, but whether you can discern truly informative signals from the vast sea of data.

Every Transaction on Polymarket is Public Data

Many prediction market participants still view Polymarket as a traditional gambling platform: watching odds, choosing directions, betting on outcomes. But Polymarket's underlying structure is completely different from DraftKings or ordinary sports betting. All transactions occur on-chain; fund flows, position sizes, entry and exit timings are all publicly verifiable. The operational paths of the most accurate and timely addresses are not post-hoc speculation but real-time, visible on-chain records.

Polymarket's API is also open. Transaction records, market data, historical trades—anyone can directly call them; there is no access barrier.

Therefore, the gap is not about who can see the data, but about who can extract meaning from it. On-chain information is public, but what is truly valuable are the wallets worth tracking continuously and the ability to recognize behavioral changes before prices fully reflect them.

What Characteristics Do Real "Insider Addresses" Typically Have?

It must be emphasized that not all profitable wallets imply insider information. Some traders possess solid research capabilities, while others rely on quantitative models and algorithmic advantages. However, when profitability is repeatedly combined with specific behavioral patterns, certain structural features distinct from "luck" can be observed.

Type 1: Combination of New Addresses and Unusually Large Bets

It is uncommon for a wallet created just a few days ago with very few transactions to suddenly deploy a large amount of capital in a low-liquidity niche market. Especially in the absence of public catalysts, large, concentrated position-building often carries stronger informational significance.

Type 2: Highly Vertical Trading Focus

Some addresses do not operate across markets but focus long-term on a specific niche sector, maintaining a stable and significant win rate within that area. They do not diversify across crypto prices, elections, sports, etc., but concentrate firepower on a single theme, with more decisive position decisions.

Type 3: Abnormal Changes in Position Size

When an address that has been betting with medium-sized positions for a long time suddenly significantly increases its stake in a particular market, this behavior often indicates a change in conviction strength. The position itself is an attitude; a sudden change in scale usually reflects an upgrade in information or belief.

Type 4: Excessively Precise Timing

Occasional early positioning can be attributed to coincidence. But if an address repeatedly completes position-building several hours before major news announcements, with highly consistent directions, this temporal lead is difficult to explain simply as luck. Once is random; repeated occurrences are more likely to reflect an information advantage.

How to Systematically Screen for Potential "Information Advantage Addresses"

Step 1: Analyze Polymarket Leaderboard Performance

Start with the leaderboard on Polymarket Analytics (link: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders), sorted by 30-day P&L, using recent stable profitability as the first filter. Focus on wallet addresses with overall positive returns for 30 consecutive days, a win rate above 55%, and total profits significantly higher than total losses. Also, confirm that their trading is concentrated in markets with genuine liquidity, not low-volume prediction events with little participation.

The goal at this stage is not to directly judge whether they have an information advantage, but to establish a watchlist of addresses with sustained profitability. A stable profit record is the foundation for subsequent behavioral analysis.

Step 2: Analyze Position Structure in Specific Events

After the initial screening, dive deeper into specific trading events. Enter active prediction markets and view the Top Holders list for that event. Polymarket publicly displays the addresses with the largest current positions; these large positions often represent stronger conviction.

The key is not whether an address hits a single large bet, but whether its behavior is consistent. If a wallet repeatedly appears on the top holder lists for multiple important events, and these positions are established before the market has fully priced them in, then this repetition itself constitutes a signal.

A single successful bet might be a coincidence, but repeatedly building large positions early, with consistent direction and validated outcomes, often indicates a stable advantage in their judgment system.

Step 3: Analyze Trading Behavior and Position-Building Timing

After identifying candidate addresses, further review their on-chain transaction history, focusing on entry timing, position structure, and holding rhythm.

First, observe the entry timing. If buying occurs several hours before official news announcements and repeats multiple times, the timing advantage itself becomes a significant variable. Entering after media coverage is more likely just information following.

Second, analyze the method of position building. Mature traders typically build positions in batches, adding gradually. Wallets with strong informational judgment often complete concentrated positioning quickly within a short timeframe because their window is limited.

Third, pay attention to the holding period. Some high-quality addresses choose to exit during the middle stages of a trend's development, rather than waiting for the tail end of extreme volatility, indicating their goal is to capture the main trend, not marginal profits.

Finally, observe their trading scope. Addresses that are highly vertical and long-term focused on a single niche sector are more likely to develop stable information advantages. Addresses frequently operating across different sectors are more likely to rely on market sentiment rather than specific domain judgment.

Advanced Address Tracking Strategies

After mastering basic screening methods, what truly creates a gap is the further breakdown of details in fund behavior.

First, focus on exit behavior, not just entry timing. Addresses with information advantages often not only position early but also proactively reduce positions before potential negative news emerges. When a large address that has held a stable position for a long time suddenly reduces it significantly without obvious catalysts, the informational content of this action is often higher than its initial buying behavior. Especially when the reduction reaches a significant proportion, this change itself is a signal.

Second, conduct wallet clustering analysis using on-chain data. Connections between addresses are not completely untraceable. Identical funding sources, similar gas usage patterns, and transactions occurring in rapid succession within a very short time may reveal relationships between addresses. Many seemingly "brand new" accounts can often be traced back to a long-active old address through 2-3 fund transfers. Tracing along the fund flow path helps identify new potential high-quality accounts before the market notices.

Furthermore, pay attention to abnormal volume changes in niche markets. If a market with typically small daily trading volume suddenly experiences a large influx of funds without public news, this structural surge often indicates that some participants have already acted early. Analyzing the specific addresses driving the volume change can help build a new watchlist.

Finally, cross-verify on-chain behavior with external public information. The so-called "Pizza Index" once inferred potential military action from abnormal order volumes at pizza shops near the Pentagon. Similarly, flight tracking data, social media activity of key figures, adjustments to public schedules, and other information can corroborate or inversely validate on-chain position behavior. The linkage between on-chain capital flows and real-world signals often strengthens the reliability of judgment.