คำตอบ: เจ้าแห่งการลงทุนระดับมหภาค Raoul Pal สัมภาษณ์: จุดเปลี่ยนทางเศรษฐกิจกำลังใกล้เข้ามา ในอีกสี่ปีข้างหน้าอย่าลงจากรถง่ายๆ

Original Source: 《When Shift Happens》

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal returns to the *When Shift Happens* podcast to delve into why the AI race is the largest capital event in human history and why cryptocurrency holders are in an advantageous position. Pal explains the economic singularity, why traders always lose to long-term holders, and why he continues to buy during corrections.

PANews has compiled the interview highlights.

Host: A few weeks ago, you shared and commented on a funny video. It satirically suggested that because the US stock market always goes up, you can make money just by "buying the dip." If you don't have money, just borrow. It's not a pyramid scheme; it's a "buy-the-dip" program. What's really going on with the stock market?

Raoul Pal: Mainly two reasons. The first is clearly liquidity; we are witnessing an expansion of liquidity. The other thing is that we are living through the most extraordinary period in human history, where nothing else matters. All capital is flooding into the field of artificial intelligence. This is the greatest race in history. It's a race between nations, a race between corporations. Therefore, of course, it will suck up every last dollar of capital because you can't slow it down.

Host: Tell me about this race.

Raoul Pal: In this world, no one will allow a single superpower to dominate AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). So there must be two, and globally, only the US and China can afford this race. Game theory dictates that no country will stop now because stopping means giving the opponent an advantage. Even if a scenario like OpenAI going bankrupt or running out of funds occurs, the US government would immediately auction off its assets to companies like Microsoft and Google, never allowing one company to hold an exclusive advantage. The scale of this game is too massive for anyone to stop. It's a game of "converting units of energy into units of intelligence."

Host: Too big to fail. So, should one just "buy the dip" forever? Will it ever end?

Raoul Pal: In my *Global Macro Investor* writings, I've said it won't end until we reach the economic singularity. The economic singularity is when the system can no longer cope with the speed of technological development. You know that magical formula: population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. When you count AI and robots as population, our current maximum population is 9 billion, but we could reach 18 billion, 100 billion, or even one trillion agents. With 10 billion or 50 billion agents, the economic system simply cannot function as it used to; it runs too fast.

Historically, almost all technology adoption followed Metcalfe's Law (PANews Note: The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users), exhibiting logarithmic growth. But AI is the first observable case of "Reed's Law" in human history (PANews Note: The value of a network increases not only with user growth but, due to group formation, the total value grows exponentially), which is exponential to the exponential. It's estimated that by 2028, the volume of text AI produces annually will surpass the total text output created by humanity from Gutenberg's printing press to the present day.

Host: An interview with Anthropic today also said they originally expected 10x growth in Q1 but ended up with 80x growth. It's unbelievable.

Raoul Pal: Yes. The economic singularity is what happens when you have economic agents that can form capital instantaneously. That's the significance of Meme coins: instant capital formation and capital destruction. They can build a digital business instantly, capture a market rapidly, and then exit when the opportunity vanishes. In this economy, what is the role of large traditional enterprises? Who are the workers? The system can no longer function normally. Because carbon-based lifeforms (human neurons) operate at a speed of 1 millisecond, but now we are running electrical current through sand (silicon, the second most common element on Earth) to create intelligence, which is six orders of magnitude (a million times) faster than human neurons. This is insane.

Host: Since AI is exploding exponentially, many in the crypto space want to pivot to AI. They find the crypto industry boring now and are even afraid of being stuck. How do you view the investment choice between AI and cryptocurrency?

Raoul Pal: Despite the immense heat in the AI sector, I still believe, over the long term, that cryptocurrency offers one of the best risk-reward profiles. However, it's genuinely tough to compete with chip companies like Nvidia because they are the core component converting energy into intelligence. That said, cryptocurrency has an "infinite TAM (Total Addressable Market)." Around October last year, we witnessed the birth of the agent economy (AI Agents). When these agents begin to scale massively, they will have their own wallets and conduct business on-chain. My previous estimate of the crypto market reaching $100 trillion was based on human users. Now, with infinite AI agents, the game has completely changed. Furthermore, the Fed, like the Greenspan era, will run the economy relying on a productivity miracle to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. The debasement of fiat currency won't stop, and the entire financial system is migrating to blockchain infrastructure. So, you just need to front-run the institutions. The worst period is over because global liquidity is accelerating.

Host: So for you, Bitcoin falling from its recent peak back to $60k is not a bear market?

Raoul Pal: This is just a painful correction within a bull market. I've been in crypto since 2013. A 50% Bitcoin correction is normal, and altcoins usually drop even harder. For example, Solana in the last cycle fell 80% before its massive rally. The difference is that the 2021 correction was very fast – a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery; this time it's more volatile and dragging on for months, making people feel much more pain. But look at it this way: the longer the consolidation period, the longer and larger the subsequent bull market might be.

Host: The problem is that in 2021, it fell fast and rose fast. But this time, the market is turbulent and time-consuming. Also, some well-performing companies (like stablecoin issuers, RWA projects) don't have tokens for retail to invest in. People feel the promise of early riches has been broken.

Raoul Pal: I don't think that's true. Product-market fit is king. Just because your altcoin hasn't gone up doesn't mean the promise is broken. The market doesn't owe you anything. People got used to the easy days of making money blindly. But liquidity was still suppressed in 2024; we haven't entered the true "Banana Zone" (the period of explosive growth). While ordinary people might not be able to buy equity in stablecoin companies, that's not an issue at all. You just need to hold the underlying Layer 1 tokens. This is our "Universal Basic Equity." If a large part of the future economy is dominated by AI and agents, and they use crypto networks, we simply need to hold Layer 1 tokens to share in their success. We didn't have this opportunity in the internet era. There are no excuses to miss it now.

Host: What did you add to your portfolio during the recent dip?

Raoul Pal: I bought some Sui and a little Zcash. I didn't chase Zcash when it surged last year. I started buying it during this correction. In the store of value domain, privacy has value. This is a very simple "left-brain trade" (intuitive trade): it's Bitcoin with privacy. The "right-brain trade" (deliberate trade) considers it has quantum-resistant properties. Although this might invite government crackdowns, it provides a crucial protective attribute for the future.

Host: Can you elaborate on why smart contract Layer 1s will capture the majority of crypto's value over time?

Raoul Pal: Layer 1 is the investment-grade infrastructure layer. Similar to how the operating system market eventually had only three or four major players, Layer 1s will ultimately converge to 3 to 5 core chains. How to understand the value of Layer 1? If you pulled the plug on Ethereum today, the economic value you'd destroy would be immense: all Layer 2s, DeFi, NFTs, RWA would go to zero. ETH is potentially even undervalued right now. Bitcoin has a very singular function: its goal is to capture a share of global savings. However, the scalability of a smart contract infrastructure is infinite.

Host: So, which Layer 1s will win?

Raoul Pal: ETH has the densest economic value and developer mindshare (security, Lindy effect, etc.). Like Microsoft, buying it won't be a big mistake. Solana has proven successful; it's more efficient, faster, and cheaper. Sui is very early, but when the market fell 80%, ETH, Solana, and Sui were the only three tokens that maintained economic density. Sui's programmability within a single block, processing speed for thousands of transactions, and finality speed are on a completely different magnitude. You can't evaluate a blockchain using traditional "Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)" models because the network's purpose is to provide the cheapest and fastest service. Valuing it based on fee generation is nonsense. The chain that is cheapest, fastest, and most programmable will ultimately outperform.

Host: Some say DeFi is "dead" after the spate of hacks in recent months. How could traditional financial institutions put money on DeFi that's so easy to hack?

Raoul Pal: But this only forces people to develop better products. Just like we install antivirus software on our computers, hacking is omnipresent. Every bank actually has internal teams to handle hacks and has a percentage of stolen funds; they just don't publicize it. I predicted back in 2014 that the entire financial system's infrastructure would migrate to the blockchain. Why? Because it's the most efficient way to output energy, and the financial system will always migrate to the most profitable and efficient rails. Moreover, DeFi is actually better suited for machines (AI agents) than humans. Machines don't even need a front-end website. They can perform low-friction asset rebalancing and instant transactions across multiple chains using various stablecoins in milliseconds. They will be the largest user base of DeFi, and we might not even perceive these transactions.

Host: Do you think NFTs will gain huge value due to the aforementioned wealth effect? My CryptoPunks and XCOPY have been stagnant. I don't even want to look at them.

Raoul Pal: This is because NFT activity is a function of the crypto economy's prosperity. You have to wait until the overall crypto market reaches hundreds of trillions of dollars. When ETH goes from its current price to $5000, or breaks upwards, you will see a massive resurgence in NFT activity. Think about it. We are living through the biggest turning point in human history: we will no longer be the top intelligence on the planet, and art is the carrier that records our era's culture. When people make significant money in this vast machine economy, they will naturally buy "trophy assets" (PANews Note: referring to top-tier assets that are extremely scarce, in prime locations, or possess significant historical and cultural value, allowing buyers to showcase social status and gain immense psychological satisfaction, often difficult to acquire on the market), just like tech, real estate, and hedge fund moguls buy art after getting rich.

Host: So how do you plan to structure an NFT portfolio? Is it only the top-tier "Holy Grail" assets worth buying?

Raoul Pal: I am actually preparing to launch an NFT fund. Many high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and even OG crypto investors who have made money but never bought digital art don't know how to buy. Our fund will have two parts. One part invests in "Holy Grail" assets (like Alien Punks, XCOPY, Beeple, worth hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of dollars). These have proven social consensus. Another part invests in mid-tier artists with high convexity. For example, "Die with the most likes," who humorously and somewhat vulgarly documents the decline of the American middle class; or German artist Kim Asendorf, who is at the forefront of AI art. If these artists' works are repriced from 20 ETH to 200 ETH (5x to 10x), and ETH itself could also go up 10x in the future, you'd get a phenomenal 100x compounded return.

Don't worry about common NFTs. The industry is still very small, and everything will be repriced. Even if you buy common Punks from the same series, it's a good deal. Additionally, our fund will engage in NFT-collateralized lending, earning yields of over 15%, reinvesting to support the liquidity of the entire art ecosystem.

Host: Is Bitcoin a proxy for investing in AI?

Raoul Pal: You could say that. Because AI will drive economic growth, and the fiat devaluation from massive debt will benefit Bitcoin as a digital store of value. However, Layer 1 smart contract platforms are a better, more direct bet.

Host: You said everyone is too focused on cycles, while the big picture is so obvious: unless absolutely necessary, you should never sell.

Raoul Pal: Exactly. In this era of agents, constant fiat debasement, and everything moving on-chain, why would you sell? If we know the long-term direction of market value, why sell? This is humanity's pension plan. The economic singularity is approximately 4 years away. You have 4 years to accumulate as much of these assets as possible. They will carry you through the greatest uncertainty of the future.

Host: Can you prove with data that "buy and hold" outperforms those trying to trade the cycles?

Raoul Pal: Absolutely. I've done models. If you buy when it hits 1 to 2 standard deviations below the log trend channel oversold level, and do nothing, the compounding is astonishing. If you try to sell the top and buy back at the bottom, 99% of people can't do it. It's too difficult. People often chase highs during rallies. I've been in this industry for 35 years, and I don't know anyone who consistently makes big money through short-term trading. The traders who make big money are actually earning asset management fees.

It turns out that those who make the most money in crypto are the ones who "do nothing." Why do the most profitable accounts at major brokerages often turn out to be "dead accounts" (forgotten accounts)? Retail tries to buy high and sell low, not only failing but also expending immense emotional and psychological energy, being angry or ecstatic daily about price fluctuations. This is absolutely the most inefficient use of personal energy. If you have spare productive energy, go study AI, and then just hold onto your Bitcoin. If the price hits 2 standard deviations overbought, you can sell a little to enjoy life; otherwise, shut up, buy the dip, and hold patiently.

Host: How should people maintain conviction when their portfolio drops 60-80% and it lasts for months?

Raoul Pal: I simply don't care. I live off my salary. If I have spare cash and the market is severely oversold, I keep buying. Because my core thesis hasn't changed: tomorrow will be more digital than today.

Host: AI stocks are soaring now, with many charts going straight up. Will this lure people away from boring crypto to buy AI?

Raoul Pal: Your job is to be a mercenary for your own capital, going where the returns are. But I believe the compound returns in crypto are higher. Compared to the Nasdaq, Bitcoin is currently in a severely oversold position relative to its long-term trend. This implies you should be allocating more to crypto versus the Nasdaq right now.

Host: Finally, give us some optimistic hope for 2026 to 2027 to help boost everyone's morale.

Raoul Pal: There's a lot of good news. First, banks are coming in, and stablecoins will see explosive growth in the next two years. The "Clarity Act" on the regulatory front will be signed, allowing almost everyone to start building on the blockchain. Macro-wise, the US government has trillions of dollars in interest to roll over and pay; they must continue printing money, and global liquidity will inevitably increase. The business cycle remains strong, and more people's income will be recycled into speculative assets. Most importantly, current crypto assets, relative to assets like the Nasdaq, are at their cheapest point in a long-term log upward trend. We've also experienced the longest, lowest reading period of "Extreme Fear" (Fear & Greed Index below 10), and there's a high probability the Middle East conflict will be permanently resolved. This is practically a perfect storm of bullish factors. I think the probability of this positive bullish outcome is 70%. The remaining 30% downside risk primarily revolves around the Middle East conflict not being resolved, leading to inflation and a liquidity crunch, but I haven't seen signs of that yet.