Original - Odaily

Author - Azuma

On September 27, the modular blockchain network Celestia launched the genesis airdrop of its native token TIA. The airdrop window will be open for 20 days until the end of 20:00 Beijing time tomorrow night (October 17).

According to Celestias plan, the TIA claimed by the airdrop will be directly added to the address (format starting with celestia) filled in by the user when applying with the launch of the Celestia mainnet. Although Celestia has not yet announced the specific launch time of the mainnet, today when OKX Ventures officially announced its investment in Celestia Labs, it mentioned that the network will be launched later this year, which also means that TIA will officially enter circulation within the year.

Considering the large scale of Celestia’s airdrop this round (a total of 7,579 developers and 576,653 addresses are eligible), many users have been qualified to apply for TIA, so they will naturally be curious about how to accurately value TIA and what should be done. At what price should you dispose of the airdrop chips in your hand.

Next, we will compare eight mainstream L1/L2 networks such as Solana, Polygon, Polkadot, Cosmos, Aptos, Optimism, Arbitrum, and Sui, based on two calculation methods: circulation market value (MC) and fully unlocked valuation (FDV). Simply speculate on the specific price of TIA after it is circulated.

Calculated in MC

According to TIAs token economic model, in the early days of TGE, the circulating supply of TIA was approximately 267 million coins (26.7% of the total supply), specifically composed of 20% of the public share and a small portion of the RD and ecological share composition.

Calculated based on this data, the TIA price forecast obtained after comparing the MCs of the eight major networks is as follows:

Calculated in FDV

In the same way, we can calculate separately based on the fully unlocked valuation (FDV). The total supply of TIA is 1 billion, and the TIA price prediction is obtained by comparing the FDV of the seven major networks (Cosmos is fully circulated, the data is the same as before) as follows:

summary

Taken together, by comparing the different calculation results of MC and FDV, it can be seen that TIAs price estimates fall back to the range of US$4-6 under various circumstances. However, it should be emphasized that the above content is only a rough estimate of TIA price made by Odaily based on similar positioning projects and does not involve any trading recommendations.

Since the modular concept represented by Celestia is relatively new, and the distribution of token chips in the early stages of circulation is relatively special, no one can give an absolutely accurate judgment on the specific performance of TIA after its listing.

One last thing I would like to add is that not long before the publication of this article, OKX Ventures has announced its participation in Celestia Labs’ Series B financing. This may mean that OKX will be one of TIA’s first support platforms. Interested users can start preparations in advance.