Strategy的会计花招：卖币上限远不止12.5亿美元

Source: Bankless

Compiled by Odaily (@OdailyChina); Translated by Azuma (@azuma_eth)

On July 7, Strategy disclosed that it had sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, valued at approximately $216 million.

These funds were used to pay dividends on STRC and replenish the USD Reserve previously used for dividend payments. Despite this sale, Strategy stated that its full $1.25 billion reserve-building capacity remains intact.

• Odaily Note: In the "self-rescue plan" announced last week, Strategy stated it had authorized the sale of BTC to build a USD reserve of up to $1.25 billion.

In other words, the $216 million in BTC sold by Strategy to replenish reserves was not counted against the previously disclosed reserve-building capacity.

Strictly speaking, there is indeed a technical difference between the two: one is "replenishing" reserves, the other is "building" reserves. But in practice, both types of sales ultimately flow into the same reserve pool for the same purpose, merely classified under different categories.

From another perspective, the previously disclosed "BTC Monetization Program" never limited Strategy to selling only $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin in total. It only capped one specific pool — using BTC sales to "build" the USD Reserve.

The program also permits Strategy to sell BTC for other purposes, which is exactly what we are witnessing now.

Three Pools

On June 29, after weeks of pressure on MSTR and STRC, Strategy launched the aforementioned BTC "Monetization Program" as part of its larger "Digital Credit Capital Framework."

The program allows Strategy to sell Bitcoin and outlines three primary uses:

• First, build the reserve, allowing the sale of up to $1.25 billion in BTC to establish the USD Reserve;
• Second, cover the preferreds, i.e., selling BTC to meet Strategy's fixed dividend and interest obligations on its preferred stock and debt. If management deems "selling BTC more favorable than issuing common stock," BTC can also be sold to replenish reserve funds previously used for these obligations.
• Third, fund buybacks, i.e., selling BTC to repurchase up to $1 billion in preferred shares and up to $1 billion in MSTR common stock. Additionally, proceeds from BTC sales may cover related taxes, fees, and other expenses.

At the time, the entire market discussion focused on the $1.25 billion cap of the first pool, but the reality is far from that.

Looking only at the third pool effectively adds another $2 billion in selling capacity. Therefore, counting only the portions with explicit caps, Strategy's currently designed BTC sale volume already exceeds $3 billion — and this does not include the pools for paying dividends, interest, and replenishing reserves, which currently have no disclosed upper limits.

Building vs. Replenishing

This is where the nuance truly lies.

The purpose of the USD Reserve is to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments. Under the current policy framework, it cannot be used for stock buybacks.

As of June 28, Strategy's USD Reserve stood at $2.55 billion, sufficient to cover the company's approximately $1.76 billion in annual debt and preferred stock payment obligations, providing roughly 17 months of coverage. Strategy's board mandates a minimum of 12 months of coverage unless the board approves lowering this standard.

This is why the distinction between "building" and "replenishing" reserves matters.

• Selling BTC and adding cash to the reserve before paying dividends: this is defined as "building." 
• Using the reserve to pay dividends, then selling BTC to refill the reserve: this is defined as "replenishing." 

The program treats these as separate categories, but they essentially do the same thing — converting BTC into cash to cover preferred stock dividends and interest expenses.

These details were already disclosed in the filings, but the recent round of sales made this classification difference more apparent. Strategy sold $216 million worth of BTC, used the funds to pay dividends and replenish reserves, yet simultaneously announced that its $1.25 billion reserve-building capacity remained fully intact.

Now, the market must begin to understand Strategy's "specialized language": "building" and "replenishing" are essentially accounting classifications, but they determine whether Strategy's BTC sales consume the "public cap" visible to the market.

From HODLing to Active Capital Management

In the June 29 announcement, Michael Saylor stated that the framework reflects Strategy's need for "liquidity, discipline, and active capital management."

Strategy CEO Phong Le was even more direct: "Strategy is transitioning from a one-way capital issuance model to an active capital management model."

As Castle Island's Matt Walsh and Jeff Dorman explained on a podcast last week, Strategy has effectively transformed into an actively managed hedge fund.

The old Strategy narrative was simple: sell MSTR stock → buy Bitcoin → offer investors leveraged BTC exposure. But that logic has changed.

Now, Strategy is buying and selling different components of its own capital structure to manage the tension between common stock (MSTR), preferred shares, USD Reserve, and Bitcoin assets (BTC).

This dynamic also introduces new conflicts of interest, as Walsh and Dorman pointed out:

• Selling common stock can support preferred dividends but pressures the premium of MSTR over its BTC holdings;
• Selling Bitcoin can extend cash flow duration but further weakens the core "never sell" narrative;
• Supporting the preferred share system can maintain market confidence but consumes cash reserves;
• Cutting preferred dividends can protect liquidity but may cause preferred share prices to collapse. 

The so-called "reserve loophole" is a manifestation of this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just an asset for Strategy to accumulate; it is becoming a balance-sheet lever used to sustain the preferred share system.

What We Ultimately See

Today, investors must evaluate whether Saylor can operate such a "machine" — every time he adjusts one lever in the capital structure, it helps one part while potentially threatening another.

This is the most notable conclusion following the July 6 filing. Strategy is not without options. It may have more operational room than the market surface suggests.

Please no longer mistakenly believe that the $1.25 billion cap represents the total limit of Strategy's Bitcoin sales.

Today, Strategy has become an institution that requires the market to re-understand. Now, every specialized term has become more critical:

• Build; 
• Replenish; 
• Issue; 
• Repurchase; 
• Defend; 

Just as Fed watchers meticulously analyze every punctuation in policy statements, the market must dissect every term Strategy uses to judge its implications for future BTC sales.

By launching this program, Strategy has granted itself greater flexibility, but the underlying contradictions remain. This is no longer a simple "leveraged Bitcoin trade"; it has become a bet on active capital management capabilities.

Can Strategy consistently manage to "sell BTC," "replenish reserves," "issue securities," "repurchase shares," and "maintain the capital structure," all while ensuring none of these actions disrupt the others?

Personally, I am not willing to bet on that.