BIT 투자 연구: 2028년 반감기가 끝이 아니다, 비트코인 채굴업의 진정한 재편은 이제 시작이다
- 핵심 견해: 현재 비트코인 채굴업은 구조적 조정을 겪고 있다. 블록 보조금 감소와 수수료 수입 부진으로 채굴자의 수익성이 지속적으로 악화되면서, 업계는 '채굴 사업'에서 '인프라 사업'으로 전환 중이며, 2028년 반감기는 업계의 도산을 가속화할 것이다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 비트코인 가격은 약 61,000달러, 전체 네트워크 해시레이트는 1 ZH/s에 가깝지만, 채굴자의 이론적 일일 수입과 실제 수입의 차이는 136%에 달해 수익성의 지속적인 괴리를 보여준다.
- 분석에 따르면 비트코인 생산 비용 하한선은 약 46,744달러, 업계 전체 손익분기점 가격은 약 65,000달러로, 현재 채굴 사업으로는 이상적인 수익을 유지하기 어렵다.
- 2025년 채굴자 총수입은 약 172억 달러이며, 이 중 전력 비용은 약 123억 달러로 총수입의 71.5%를 차지해 비용 부담이 크다.
- 채굴자의 일평균 수수료 수입은 22만 달러에 불과해, 역사적 관계가 암시하는 약 970만 달러에 크게 미치지 못하며, 수입 구조가 아직 수수료 중심으로의 전환을 완료하지 못했다.
- 2028년 반감기 이후 생산 비용 하한선은 약 93,289달러로 상승할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 자본이 풍부하고 수입원이 다양한 기관 중심 채굴 기업으로의 업계 집중을 가속화할 것이다.
- 채굴 기업들은 단순 채굴에서 인프라 운영자로 전환 중이며, 주요 경쟁 분야는 해시레이트 확장에서 에너지 관리 및 AI/HPC 연산 위탁과 같은 비즈니스 모델로 업그레이드되고 있다.
The Bitcoin mining industry is currently undergoing its most complex structural adjustment since the protocol's inception. Although the Bitcoin price remains around $61,000 and the network's total hashrate is near an all-time high of approximately 1 ZH/s, miner profitability continues to deteriorate. Multiple indicators, including production costs, fee revenue, hashrate expansion, and the industry's security budget, all suggest that mining is currently operating close to the break-even point, and the 2028 halving is expected to further accelerate industry consolidation.
Based on current data, the challenges facing the mining industry stem not only from the decline in block subsidies due to the halving but also from the fact that the industry's revenue structure has not yet completed its transition to being fee-driven. Simultaneously, an increasing number of mining companies are beginning to shift from being pure Bitcoin producers to infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC computing infrastructure providers. In this process, the focus of competition in the mining industry is gradually shifting from hashrate expansion to business model upgrades.
Profitability Under Persistent Pressure: Re-evaluating the Mining Economic Model
The PoW difficulty/issuance model shows that the lower bound of Bitcoin's current production cost is approximately $46,744. Historically, whenever the price has dropped near this level, it has often signaled marginal miners starting to exit the market and corresponded to the formation of a cyclical bottom. However, what is more noteworthy currently is that miner revenue and the Bitcoin price have experienced a sustained divergence for the first time in history.
Data indicates that at a Bitcoin price of around $61,000, the theoretical daily revenue for the entire network should be about $78 million, while the actual figure is only about $33 million—a theoretical revenue about 136% higher than the actual revenue. Meanwhile, the total network hashrate has approached 1 ZH/s, but fee revenue remains persistently low, currently averaging only about $220,000 per day, far below the approximately $9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As the halving continues to compress new issuance, the Bitcoin mining industry is facing increasing profitability pressure.
From Mining to Infrastructure: The 2028 Halving Could Drive Industry Restructuring
Beyond declining revenue, cost pressures on mining companies are also mounting. In 2025, the total revenue of Bitcoin miners was approximately $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for about $12.3 billion, representing 71.5% of total revenue. Global investment in mining hardware was about $4.5 billion. Comprehensive calculations suggest that the industry's overall break-even price is currently around $65,000, meaning that at current price levels, relying solely on mining operations makes it difficult to maintain ideal profitability levels.
It is estimated that after the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin's production cost will rise further to approximately $93,289, accelerating the industry's concentration among a few large, well-capitalized mining companies with diversified revenue streams. Compared to traditional miners dependent on block rewards, institutionalized mining entities with access to low-cost power resources, AI/HPC colocation services, and stronger balance sheet capabilities are likely to gain a stronger competitive advantage in the new cycle.
Overall, the Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing a profound transformation from a "mining business" to an "infrastructure business." As block subsidies continue to decline, relying solely on Bitcoin production will be difficult to sustain long-term profitability. The industry's future will increasingly depend on diversified revenue sources such as energy management and AI/HPC computing colocation. For investors, what truly deserves attention is not just the halving itself, but which mining companies can successfully complete their business model transformation and establish a more resilient competitive advantage in the new industry landscape.
Some of the above perspectives are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
