Interview with PPP: The World Cup Ignites the Prediction Market; How to Find "Replicable Smart Money"?

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

With the World Cup heating up, the prediction market has experienced an unprecedented data explosion.

Match results, group stage qualifications, championship winners, Golden Boot rankings... A massive amount of capital is fiercely competing in the prediction market, pushing trading volume and user engagement to all-time highs. Yet amidst the excitement, most ordinary users face an awkward reality – staring at a screen full of fluctuating probabilities, unsure how to operate to achieve consistent profits.

In search of profit certainty, many users track "smart money" movements on social media or news platforms. However, in reality, this "wait for a signal, then manually follow" approach can easily become passive. Because the probabilities in prediction markets fluctuate in real-time, and opportunity costs can vanish in an instant, making it difficult for manual operations to keep pace.

To address this, some users have started looking towards common copy-trading tools available in the market, which harbors a more insidious "smart money trap." Many tools only use "total profit" or "recent win rate" as a single criterion to display so-called smart money addresses. Users see these "pros" boasting millions of dollars in dazzling returns and blindly follow, only to often end up with losses after entering.

"Not all profitable addresses are suitable for copy-trading."

When discussing the reasons behind this phenomenon, PPP (Prediction Position Platform), a prediction market strategy platform we recently encountered, gave the above answer.

PPP explained that some addresses might generate profits due to exclusive information, extreme positions, one-time market movements, or capital scale advantages. If ordinary users only look at profit rankings, they can easily overlook drawdowns, liquidity, holding styles, and actual followability. Once they blindly copy-trade, they are likely to face unexpected outcomes. In other words, "profitability" itself does not equal "copy-tradeability."

"An address that can be safely copy-traded by ordinary users must be able to achieve stable profits over a long period with a large sample size. Win rate, maximum drawdown, strategy stability, and position allocation... every metric is indispensable. Only addresses that withstand scrutiny across these dimensions have a replicable profit logic."

AI Modeling + Manual Verification: Screening for Truly Reusable Strategies

According to PPP, the biggest problem facing current prediction market users is how to filter out truly "replicable, verifiable, and sustainable" smart money addresses from the vast number of trading addresses, and be able to track the activities of these addresses in a simpler way to participate in copy-trading.

To this end, PPP is attempting to build a complete system – screening and structuring complex address data and trading signals, ultimately transforming them into strategy entry points that ordinary users can understand and use.

Lorne, a team member of PPP, stated: "The market doesn't lack monitoring tools, nor does it lack copy-trading tools. What's missing is a set of strategy mechanisms that structure and clean complex trading behaviors, transforming them into something ordinary users can understand, dare to use, and find easy to operate."

Lorne added that PPP employs a dual mechanism based on AI modeling and manual verification, analyzing specific addresses comprehensively across multiple dimensions, including but not limited to:

• Profit performance and stability;
• Win rate structure;
• Maximum drawdown and risk exposure;
• Capital scale and position allocation;
• Activity level and trading frequency;
• Holding period...

After comprehensive modeling of these indicators through AI, the system first eliminates "accidental profits" and "abnormal trading samples," then combines multiple rounds of manual verification to ultimately filter out a batch of trading addresses that are statistically more stable and have continuous research value.

PPP emphasized that its AI algorithm model itself is not publicly disclosed, but the platform makes the analytical power of the model available to users through an "AI Address Analysis Tool." Users can paste an address they are tracking on PPP, compare it against the smart money address library, and gauge the address's profitability, information advantage, drawdown resilience, and win rate level, thereby determining if the address possesses stable capabilities.

Strategy Layering: Meeting Diverse Needs

After completing the basic screening, PPP further stratifies these replicable smart money addresses and builds two core product systems catering to different user needs.

First is the "Strategy Plaza." According to Lorne, the Strategy Plaza aggregates stable trading strategies that have been verified over a relatively long period. Addresses entering this system typically need to meet stricter screening criteria, including:

• At least six months of historical trading verification;
• A multi-dimensional AI scoring pass;
• Manual verification confirming strategy consistency;
• Focus on risk-reward ratio and drawdown control ability;
• Emphasis on strategy replicability and long-term stability;

In summary, the Strategy Plaza can be understood as a filtered long-term strategy pool, aiming to provide more sustainable choices for users seeking stable copy-trading. PPP also conducts regular reviews of the strategies in this section weekly to ensure their continued effectiveness.

Second is the "Trading Leaderboard." Lorne explained that, unlike the Strategy Plaza, the Trading Leaderboard is more focused on capturing periodic opportunities. This leaderboard is generated by PPP through its AI multi-dimensional model combined with manual verification. It primarily screens traders who have performed outstandingly in the last 30 days, focusing on dimensions such as:

• Profit growth rate;
• Win rate change trend;
• Activity level and market engagement;
• Short-term capital behavior characteristics;

In this system, high returns often come with higher volatility. PPP has also explicitly warned about this: "This leaderboard is more suitable for users looking for short-term opportunities, rather than as a long-term stable copy-trading strategy."

To meet the diverse operational needs of users,PPP provides simple and understandable abstract summaries and descriptions of the specific styles of strategies and addresses in the Strategy Plaza and Trading Leaderboard (e.g., "High implied win rate strategy, high volatility"), allowing users to more clearly understand the differences between strategies and make their choices.

In addition to the two standardized leaderboard systems mentioned above, PPP also offers a one-click trading function and an address copy-trading function. The former helps users instantly copy-trade upon receiving a trading signal; the latter allows users to input any address they are interested in to follow its trades.

Beginner's Luck: Single-Day Return Exceeds 60%

Lorne revealed that PPP recently officially launched its Telegram Bot product, currently serving as the primary user interaction interface. The website and other products are currently under active development.

Guided by Lorne, we also tried going through the complete usage process as an ordinary user.

Upon first entry, users need to log in to their account and create a wallet through the Telegram Mini App. PPP's wallet system operates in a non-custodial mode, meaning users always retain control of the wallet (the private key can be exported according to the process; please ensure you store it safely yourself). This implies that any potential future benefits from this wallet, such as a potential airdrop from Polymarket, will entirely belong to the user.

The next steps are depositing funds and subscribing. PPP operates on a subscription-based model. Users must subscribe first to unlock the full functionality. The monthly subscription fee is 59 USDC, but a limited-time discount promotion is currently running, offering a subscription fee of 1.99 USDC to allow initial users to experience the service at a low cost.

After subscribing, users can see the full range of services unlocked on the PPP homepage, including the aforementioned Strategy Plaza, Trading Leaderboard, Address Copy-Trading, AI Address Analysis, as well as "Wallet & Assets" for viewing balances, "Active Copy-Trades" for checking existing positions, and "Signal Detection" for monitoring the latest market trends. PPP has also launched a special section for the World Cup, where users can check the latest match schedules in real-time. Additionally,PPP will continuously update related smart money movements and key trading signals, helping users quickly identify where capital is being deployed.

Regarding the specific copy-trading operation, after selecting a strategy, users can view the core indicators of that strategy across various dimensions. Once they confirm it meets their needs, they can choose the copy-trading amount or customize settings to start copying. A specific function worth mentioning here is the "Copy-Trading Settings" feature. Users can actively adjust parameters such as trigger amount, copy-trading amount, slippage, take-profit, and maximum position limits for different strategies within this interface to control the execution boundaries of the copy-trading.

I personally deposited a small amount of $100 and ran it for a day, setting up copy-trading for two strategies and two addresses on the Strategy Plaza and Trading Leaderboard respectively. When I checked the next day, I was shocked – the account net value peaked at $164, representing a single-day return of over 60%.

However, during subsequent testing, the account experienced some drawdown. In summary, the main issue was not setting different copy-trading amounts for strategies with varying risk profiles, causing a low-probability event to consume too much capital.

Lorne commented frankly on this: "Although PPP has rigorously screened and reviewed the historical performance of the selected strategies, acknowledging the address's capability through multi-dimensional modeling, the platform cannot guarantee that the strategy accounts will continue to be profitable in the future. Therefore, we recommend users to experiment within their acceptable risk range and avoid overexposure."

Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market

After a few days of testing and in-depth discussions with Lorne, our most intuitive feeling is that PPP should not be simply understood as a "copy-trading tool." It seems more like an attempt to build a structured "compilation" path, from "trading signals" to "executable strategies."

Smart money does exist, but it is dispersed across countless addresses, strategies, and short-term fluctuations. Profit records are also real, but the underlying risk structure, capital behavior, and strategy stability are often obscured by simple profit numbers. This explains why "following smart money" is often unstable in practice – users see the results, but the market operates on the process; users want to replicate returns, but often overlook the path.

PPP aims to solve exactly this gap. Through the deep integration of complex AI algorithms and manual verification, it denoises and structures the originally chaotic and random on-chain trading signals, distilling truly "replicable" smart money strategies and delivering them to users via a low-barrier TG Bot. This serves both as an effective defense against the "smart money trap" and as a means to eliminate information asymmetry in the prediction market.

Of course, as Lorne emphasized, no historical backtesting or strategy screening can make a 100% promise about future returns. High returns in the prediction market are inevitably accompanied by high volatility and high risk. While