华尔街资产管理公司CEO公开持仓：押注纳斯达克指数和比特币，「中间地带」才是最差选择

Compiled & Translated by: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Anthony Pompliano, Founder & CEO of Professional Capital Management

Host: John Pompliano, Associate at Pomp Investments

Podcast Source: Anthony Pompliano

Original Title: I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio…

Air Date: June 24, 2026

Key Takeaways

Anthony Pompliano and John Pompliano are back together for this episode, deeply analyzing the brutal sell-off in the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) tech stocks, the market-wide panic over AI capital expenditure (CapEx) being a bubble, and why the underlying inflation data is actually much safer and more controlled than the sensational headlines suggest.

The guest is Anthony Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, who has been active in the crypto investment space for a long time. His podcast is one of the most listened-to financial podcasts in North America.

Additionally, we will fully review Anthony's current portfolio, offer an exclusive analysis of the real political chess game behind new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's interest rate decisions, and deeply deconstruct why Bitcoin's "high volatility" is not a risk but its core ultimate advantage in the long-term journey towards the next decade.

Key Insights Summary

The Real Logic Behind the MAG 7 Correction

• "The core reason for the Mag 7 sell-off is that they are essentially long-duration assets and thus very sensitive to inflation."
• "For the Mag 7, these AI companies won't suddenly explode or go to zero."
• "If inflation falls in Q3 and Q4, the valuation multiples of the Mag 7 are very likely to expand again."
• "Google is now cheaper than Apple on a valuation basis but growing faster. Why is that? The core reason is the market's concern over AI CapEx. This actually presents a good opportunity to buy some of the world's best companies at lower valuations."
• "Many value investors have underperformed over the years because they are too fixated on using past frameworks to judge today's companies. You should respect history, but you can't just point to old data and say 'these companies are too expensive' for 15 consecutive years."
• "A likely scenario is that a company initially says it will spend $10 billion on CapEx over the next two years, but the actual spending ends up being only $6 billion. $6 billion is still a huge number, but it's 40% less than the market feared. The market is currently too fixated on the direction of inflation, which I believe is being mispriced."

Repricing AI CapEx and ROI

• "The real problem right now is the token cost. Talk to a bunch of CEOs, and everyone is saying the same thing: We're spending too much on tokens, but we have no idea where the ROI is."
• "Everyone is starting to focus on the same goal: getting the same output with fewer tokens."
• "What is the bottleneck limiting the adoption of this technology? Electricity, data centers, chips."
• "I saw a news item the other day about a company shifting employee work hours to 1 AM to 10 AM. One reason was their belief that calling models during this time is cheaper, system load is lower, and answers are more accurate."

Investment Method: Avoiding the Middle Ground

• "If I were to summarize investment approaches, I think there are roughly two paths. The first is buying large-cap indices. Investing in broad market indices is a perfectly good strategy. The second path is investing in highly asymmetric opportunities. I believe the worst place to be is in the middle. You shouldn't allocate capital to companies that are medium-sized, have only medium growth, and offer mediocre return profiles."
• "The two most interesting technologies in the world today are Bitcoin and AI."
• "I hold Tesla. I believe that if Elon establishes a monopoly in humanoid robots and autonomous driving, that will be extremely valuable."
• "Once he can endow hardware with these capabilities using AI, machine learning, and computer vision, he effectively secures the embodied entry point for 'physical AI.' I believe that will be immensely valuable."
• "Which areas do I actually want exposure to? I will hold some cash long-term, and I will also hold Bitcoin."
• "Anduril's model is to let a bunch of startups achieve technological breakthroughs first. Once the technology is validated, Anduril swoops in and acquires these drone companies. It's very good at M&A and has a strong business development team that can quickly commercialize acquired technologies through government contracts. In other words, it's a platform that buys technology and then commercializes it."

His Actual Investment Portfolio

• "In the private markets, I hold many software-focused AI companies, like Replit, Lovable, Micro One – strong businesses in their respective verticals. In the public markets, I'm more concentrated on physical AI and robotics."
• "Whether in public or private markets, software or hardware, I have a relatively complete set of AI exposure."
• "I don't hold Tesla because of the cars. I hold it because I believe if Elon forms a monopoly in humanoid robots and autonomous driving, it will be incredibly valuable."
• "He will eventually merge SpaceX and Tesla, and this is likely to happen before 2030. Once that happens, he'll integrate his most important projects into a massive conglomerate."

Bitcoin Enters a New Phase

• "Unhappiness is essentially the gap between expectations and reality. So you can't set crazy expectations for Bitcoin. If you set your expectation at 25% to 30%, and it does better, you'll be pleasantly surprised."
• "Governments will continue to print money. Bitcoin's core investment thesis hasn't been broken. The change is simply that it has now entered a different stage of the game."
• "Bitcoin used to be like playing high school basketball, where you were one of the few standout players. Now it's more like playing college basketball. All the players are better, the gap isn't as huge as before, but the quality of the game is much higher."
• "Retail investors are typically more emotional; institutions are typically less so. I know sentiment online is bad, but from a market structure perspective, this is also a common part of the bottoming process."

Mag 7 Sell-off and AI CapEx

Anthony Pompliano:

Many people get worried simply because of Bitcoin's volatility. I think that's completely wrong-headed. I actually like it when my holdings go through phases of being disliked by the market. I don't want to own assets that are perpetually hot, because if an asset is always a market darling, it means it's already too popular, too crowded, and the returns have likely already been arbitraged away. Conversely, assets that periodically fall out of favor often still have strong asymmetry and higher potential future returns. So, volatility itself is important.

In today's episode, John will interview me. We'll discuss Kevin Warsh, the Fed, inflation expectations, interest rates, the AI CapEx debate, the Mag 7, the S&P 500, Bitcoin, SpaceX, and many other topics. I'll also clearly explain my current investment framework for both public and private markets and specifically mention some assets I've already allocated to my portfolio.

John Pompliano: Let's start with the first topic. Recently, there's been a sell-off in the Mag 7. Do you think this is a valuation re-rating, or is the market starting to rethink the entire AI trade thesis?

Anthony Pompliano:

I think the core reason for the Mag 7 sell-off is that they are essentially long-duration assets and thus very sensitive to inflation. The market was previously worried that the war in Iran would push energy prices up and reignite inflation, so these assets were sold off first.

I've repeatedly said two things in 2025. First, tariffs won't cause persistent inflation. Second, as long as the Iran conflict isn't a prolonged multi-year war, it's just a short-term price shock. We've certainly seen this short-term spike in energy, but it won't turn into long-term inflation. The bigger picture is that there are still many structural deflationary forces at work in the US economy.

Of course, there will always be people who see inflation back at 3% and scream, "Inflation is out of control again!" I don't see it that way. Many people's understanding of inflation was skewed by the extreme situation of over 9% a few years back, as if high inflation will keep recurring. But if you look at history, inflation spiking over 9% in one's lifetime is an extremely rare event. If I recall correctly, the last time US inflation exceeded 9% was in the 1970s, before I was even born. That means it's only happened once in my entire life.

That period of high inflation was severe, but also very understandable. The massive money printing and pushing interest rates to zero in 2020 made high inflation almost inevitable. But that kind of artificial manipulation is entirely different from the price disturbances caused by the Iran war or tariffs.

Looking at the Mag 7, the market now has two layers of concern. The first layer is that if inflation continues to rise, these long-duration, interest-rate-sensitive assets will face valuation compression, leading to stock price corrections. That logic makes sense. The second layer of concern is the fear that massive AI CapEx will reduce free cash flow for these companies, leaving less cash to return to shareholders in the future, thus justifying a lower valuation.

But I believe two things will happen. First, inflation won't be as bad as the market fears. We're already seeing signs. In the latest inflation data, 60% of the increase came from energy. That means energy prices were the primary driver. Once energy prices fall, inflation will naturally come down. Oil has already dropped below $80. If it goes back to $60, what do you think happens to inflation? I'm not 100% declaring "peak inflation" yet, but I think we're very close. Whether it has peaked or will peak in the May or June data, my judgment is that Q3 and Q4 inflation will be lower than Q2. If this holds, valuation multiples for the Mag 7 will expand again.

The other part is AI CapEx. In my view, this boils down to two critical questions. First, is the demand we anticipate actually real? Second, will this CapEx ultimately yield a return? If demand exists, then returns are possible because someone will use the infrastructure. Does demand exist? Simply, do you use AI more frequently today than you did a year ago? Absolutely.

But lately, the market and media have started discussing another issue: Is our current way of using AI tokens efficient enough? Is the computing power and energy consumed by companies to call models really worth it? I feel this personally. Many people know we're building a product called CFO Sylvia. During this process, we encountered a real problem: costs were climbing. Users can generate their own queries. Without a sufficiently smart token management mechanism, expenses are theoretically unlimited.

Initially, the team focused on "just getting the product out." Once it was running, you realize the real problem is token costs. So what do you do? You start improving token efficiency.

We made many specific adjustments. For instance, some pages would re-call the model every time a user refreshed. That was completely unnecessary, so we stopped it, and token consumption dropped immediately. Some features periodically called models cyclically. They looked cool, but they were the major token consumers. We cut those features and watched to see if users would complain. No one complained, so we didn't restore them. That saved a massive number of tokens.

Later, we adjusted the architecture further, paying closer attention to actual cash costs. Initially, I thought it was just our company's problem. But then I talked to a group of other CEOs, and everyone was saying the same thing: We're spending too much on tokens, and we have no idea where the ROI is.

So, everyone is shifting towards the same goal: getting the same output with fewer tokens. That's why I was tweeting that the phase of blindly chasing token usage inside companies, like having leaderboards for "who calls the model more," wouldn't last long. The world will eventually return to metrics that truly matter for results: efficiency, effectiveness, ROI.

And this is precisely why I'm most bullish on private model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Grok. You'll see that customers like CFO Sylvia, or any enterprise customer, are demanding, "I want to use fewer tokens but get the same result." So, individual customers are becoming more efficient. However, at the same time, the total addressable market is expanding, and product adoption is rising. So, the total revenue for these model companies could still be very high. For me, this is a sign of product-market fit. As long as open-source models haven't completely eaten their lunch yet, these companies have a great business right now.

The next question becomes, what is the bottleneck limiting the adoption of this technology? Electricity, data centers, chips. The constraints are all in these areas. I saw a news item the other day about a company shifting employee work hours to 1 AM to 10 AM. One reason was their belief that calling models during this time is cheaper, system load is lower, and answers are more accurate. I don't think most companies will do this, but it shows people are starting to think very seriously about model call efficiency.

If the demand for this technology is persistent, it means we still don't have enough data centers, electricity, or chips. It means the bidding war for resources in this direction will continue.

So, those worried about the ROI of AI CapEx can certainly pose a long-term question: Will there be overbuilding in the future? Yes, eventually any cycle can lead to overbuilding. It's a historical pattern and hard to control precisely. But in the short term, I don't see this problem at all. I see strong demand for software, strong demand for specialized workflows, and strong demand for data centers, electricity, and chips – so strong that companies are already discussing building orbital data centers.

So, I think the market's anxiety is somewhat misplaced. Especially concerning the Mag 7, many focus on what companies "expect to spend." But expectations aren't reality. Just as expected revenue isn't recognized revenue, expected CapEx isn't the final amount spent.

A likely scenario is that a company initially says it will spend $10 billion on CapEx over the next two years, but the actual spending ends up being only $6 billion. $6 billion is still a huge number, but it's 40% less than the market feared. The market is currently too fixated on the direction of inflation, which I believe is being mispriced. More importantly, I think everyone is overestimating the AI CapEx guidance numbers. I believe the actual money spent will likely be lower than the market currently fears.

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