对谈VanEck CEO：存储芯片股是供需错配泡沫，多数加密项目五年后消亡

Arranged & Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Jan van Eck (CEO of VanEck)

Host: Wilfred Frost

Original Title: Memory Is A Bubble, But Nvidia Protected – Jan Van Eck On Semis Surge

Podcast Source: The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Air Date: May 27, 2026

Editor's Introduction

This episode features VanEck CEO Jan van Eck. His core thesis is that Nvidia has transformed from a single GPU maker into the "host" of AI infrastructure, possessing a moat built on its software ecosystem, scale, and power efficiency. However, the surge in memory chip stocks looks more like a bubble driven by cyclical supply-demand mismatches.

The head of VanEck, which manages approximately $225 billion in assets and was among the earliest proponents of the Bitcoin ETF, distills the main themes of the next decade into three areas: AI computing infrastructure buildout, the rise of India, and excessive fiscal leverage in developed economies like the US, UK, and Japan.

More provocatively, he labels 2026 the "Year of the Corporate Control Chain," predicting Wall Street will absorb the best aspects of blockchain, stablecoins, and programmable money. However, most crypto projects and software will lose relevance in 5 to 10 years; Bitcoin, stablecoins, and the blockchain concept will survive, while many token ecosystems will disappear.

Key Quotes

AI, Semiconductors & Memory Stocks

• "From an AI perspective, the problem is simple. Compute demand is here, supply is below. Semiconductors are clearly at the core of this structure."
• "Nvidia is no longer just a GPU manufacturer; it's more like the host for AI. The old cyclical, highly competitive nature of a single chip maker isn't the whole story for them today."
• "Nvidia's advantage comes not only from scale of production but also from chips that deliver higher efficiency per dollar of electricity. With a forward earnings multiple in the low twenties, I still see it as a solid asset in a portfolio."
• "The profit explosion in memory chip stocks isn't primarily due to selling more units, but because of higher prices. This means companies using memory will start looking for ways to use less."
• "I don't like calling tops easily, but I'm cautious on memory chip stocks. In the medium to long term, they don't have a competitive moat as deep as Nvidia's."

ETFs, Active Management & Asset Allocation

• "VanEck's investment philosophy is to look back from a decade out: looking towards 2036, which big themes truly changed the world and financial markets?"
• "ETFs are a scale game. The larger the assets, the broader the client base you can serve. Much active management, especially private equity and hedge funds, might suffer from diseconomies of scale."
• "Even if the ETF vehicle itself is passive, deciding which ETFs you own, how to allocate, and when to add or reduce weight is fundamentally a very active decision."

Macro Debt, Gold & Hard Assets

• "If the market truly loses confidence in the US government's ability to meet its obligations, I don't know where to hide. Even gold, a medium-term hedge, could be sold off in the short term."
• "I think gold is re-emerging as the world's primary currency, because if not the dollar, I don't believe China or India will become international reserve currencies."
• "Government bond markets are among the world's strangest and most inefficient markets. They can lock into a certain mindset and become disconnected from reality."
• "The Nuclear ETF grew from under $20 million to $4.7 billion. Behind that is a dramatic policy shift; both US parties, as well as countries like Japan, have re-embraced nuclear energy."

Crypto, Stablecoins & The Corporate Control Chain

• "I call 2026 the 'Year of the Corporate Control Chain.' Banks, trading firms, and financial institutions want to absorb the best parts of blockchain while still controlling their own ecosystem."
• "I believe we are experiencing a crypto winter, and it's not coming back. Many projects and software won't be interesting or alive in five to ten years."
• "The concept of blockchain will remain, stablecoins will remain, Bitcoin will remain. But many other parts of the ecosystem, in my view, will disappear."
• "The stablecoin bill, for the first time, allows tech companies to compete with the banking system. But banks have survived competition from money market funds before."

India & SpaceX IPO

• "You can't fight demographic trends. India, under Modi, has been consistently pushing pro-business reforms. There's no reason for such a country not to grow at a higher rate."
• "SpaceX is massive. As an ETF issuer, we're very happy to see it enter the public markets. The liquidity flowing into the economic system will be in the hundreds of billions."

The Frenzy in Memory Chip Stocks

Wilfred Frost: Our guest today is Jan van Eck, President and CEO of VanEck and its affiliates. Founded by his father, VanEck has become a major player in the ETF industry, managing around $225 billion in assets. Jan is a frequent podcast guest with very direct and clear views, which is why we welcome him. Jan, welcome to the show.

Jan van Eck: Wilfred, glad to be doing this show with you for the first time.

Wilfred Frost: I want to start with one specific ETF. Fair to say it has driven a lot of your performance in recent years and is right at the center of the current market – SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. It has performed incredibly well recently. I understand it has about $65 billion in AUM now, correct?

Jan van Eck: Roughly that size.

Wilfred Frost: It has become the main gateway for investors seeking semiconductor exposure. Up 58% year-to-date, up 135% over the last 12 months. Even more striking, an annualized return of about 29% since inception.

Jan van Eck: It's crazy, right?

Wilfred Frost: Incredible. It's very hard to do that on a compounded basis. You could retire now.

Jan van Eck: Yeah, I should stop right now.

Wilfred Frost: But I bet you won't, which is why you're here. Over the last year or so, SMH grew to $65 billion. How much was price appreciation, and how much was net inflows?

Jan van Eck: A large part is price appreciation. I would be surprised if inflows accounted for more than 10% to 20% of the increase over the past 12 months.

Wilfred Frost: That's interesting. I would have thought inflows were a bigger factor. What do you think is driving it? Maybe a simple question – is it purely the AI theme?

Jan van Eck: Yes. VanEck's investment philosophy is to look at things from a big-picture macro perspective. I call it the "10-year macro." The idea is to ask, looking back from 2036, which themes most profoundly impacted the world and, consequently, financial markets? This perspective aims to filter out a lot of noise.

I think at least three things survive: AI, the rise of India, and excessive fiscal leverage led by the US, UK, and Japan. From an AI perspective, the logic is simple: compute demand is high, supply is constrained. Semiconductors are clearly at the core.

Drilling down, you get to Nvidia. Our ETF has outperformed other semiconductor ETFs partly because it focuses on the top 25 stocks and allows the largest position to go up to 20%. So it has effectively ridden the Nvidia wave significantly.

Nvidia itself could be a whole show. Are we still comfortable with semiconductors, with Nvidia? My own answer is yes. No one can guarantee a company won't lose its moat, but I believe Nvidia will certainly be one of the leaders a decade from now. Partly because it's become like the host for AI, no longer just the cyclical, highly competitive single-chip or GPU maker of the past.

Today's Nvidia has software, cost advantages, production scale, and higher power efficiency – more efficient chips per dollar/pound of electricity. Its forward earnings multiple is in the low twenties. So, while Nvidia hasn't been the hottest stock in SMH over the last nine months, I still consider it a very solid part of a portfolio.

Wilfred Frost: According to your latest disclosures, Nvidia is about 17% of SMH, TSMC about 9%. I want to dive deeper into those later. You mentioned the significant Nvidia exposure is important; but interestingly, at least this year, or as you say the last nine months, the performance hasn't been solely driven by large caps like Nvidia. Many semiconductor companies that were left behind by the AI trade have recently caught up.

Jan van Eck: Exactly. In SMH's methodology, there's some thinking and some luck involved. When you only select the top 25 names, during this investment era of the last 15-20 years, what happened was that large-cap stocks truly led the market. There are certainly more than a hundred semiconductor companies. Filtering out the bottom ones, which are in more competitive spaces, effectively removed the drag.

Of course, this doesn't apply to all investment phases. But during this period, it definitely amplified the impact of these big winners.

Wilfred Frost: Short-term, up 58% year-to-date, the rally has clearly broadened out. Memory chip stocks have surged dramatically. Is this sustainable?

Jan van Eck: I doubt this performance is sustainable. We just saw historic moves in May, so I don't think it continues at this pace. But I don't necessarily think the market pricing is irrational. Going back to the super macro view: if demand is high and supply is low, capital markets are essentially telling entrepreneurs and companies: "Come here, we need your capital, we are willing to value your capital because we need to build AI compute centers." This isn't surprising.

I think this decade-long perspective is useful because humans naturally look backward. When a big trend emerges, whether it's a country's rise or a major technology's rise, you can't just look at the last few quarters' earnings or past uses of the technology to understand its scale of buildout.

Of course, not all tech trends materialize. There are many false trends and fake technologies in the world. But AI is clearly grabbing global markets by the neck and shaking them.

Wilfred Frost: A short-term question. The KOSPI hit another all-time high today. It has tripled over the last 18 months, incredible for a country index, driven mainly by Samsung and SK Hynix. The Korean index had a single day gain of 12% last week. Does this remind you of the other side? Like late 2021, when some meme stocks surged and then 2022 saw a sharp correction. I know these memory stocks, especially those two companies, have very remarkable EPS expectations, so it's different from meme stock mania. But are there similarities that raise red flags?

Jan van Eck: Within the AI ecosystem, I would say there are indeed some bubbles. Going back to late last year, the question was the financial sustainability of the OpenAI ecosystem. Was OpenAI, the leading model company behind ChatGPT, sustainable? Would Claude surpass it? In the group I call the OpenAI ecosystem, companies like Oracle, which levered up to build compute for OpenAI, and CoreWeave, both saw drops of 50%.

So even within the larger AI trend, you find local bubbles or company-specific bubbles. Going back to your question, I do think the memory pocket is a moment in time. It's tough to call the top in such moments, but personally, I am cautious on memory chip stocks because, in the medium to long term, they lack what I consider to be a sufficiently deep competitive moat compared to Nvidia.

There will be new entrants in this space. There is a shortage now, which gives them pricing power. The main reason for their profit explosion isn't a huge surge in volume, as they have capacity constraints; it's because they raised prices. This means users of memory will start looking for ways to use less.

So I agree with your feeling that it has strong bubble characteristics. In our actively managed funds, we are reducing exposure to the memory space.

Wilfred Frost: Nvidia is about 17% of SMH, TSMC is second, then US giants like Intel, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, each around 6% or 7%. Does TSMC have a defensible moat similar to Nvidia's? Different type, but comparable defensibility?

Jan van Eck: I think so. TSMC has not only manufacturing capability but also the capital capacity to build incredibly expensive chip fabrication facilities. One common advantage for both Nvidia and TSMC, I guess, is that they work with a wide range of participants in the ecosystem, seeing almost all customers. Therefore, they can see where the technology is going, how customer demand will evolve. Most people would say TSMC will still be there in ten years; it will be a survivor.

Wilfred Frost: You mentioned Oracle or CoreWeave had significant drawdowns from their late October highs to the "Iran war lows" in March, Oracle nearly halving, which is significant for its size. I heard you say on another podcast not to worry too much about an overall AI bubble because it's already sort of popped once. The question is, how do you have the confidence to buy back into the right companies at such times? Especially since a large part of what we discuss is not publicly listed, and investors can only access it through proxy plays.

Jan van Eck: This will sound very much like an ETF issuer's answer, but from a company perspective, a diversified approach is certainly more sensible. From a timing perspective, if you are in such a trend, it's better to buy on the pullbacks than to chase it right now. Talking about SMH flows earlier, I think a lot of the assets in this fund came from investors who bought years ago and let the appreciation happen. This is somewhat healthy because there isn't too much hot money chasing it.

Of course, money is chasing memory chip stocks and the hottest parts of the ecosystem. But overall, we are still overweight semiconductors in our broad model portfolios, though we are slightly inclined to take some profits here.

ETFs & Asset Management

Wilfred Frost: Let's talk more broadly about VanEck. We discussed SMH. I realized while preparing that although the firm was founded in the 1950s, you really entered the ETF game in the early 2000s.