8강전이 곧 시작됩니다. AI들은 누구에게 8강 진출권을 줬을까?

Asher

Odaily资深作者

@Asher_0210

2026-07-09 02:36

이 기사는 약 2972자로, 전체를 읽는 데 약 5분이 소요됩니다

각 모델의 4강 예측은 프랑스, 스페인, 잉글랜드, 아르헨티나로 매우 일치했습니다.

AI 요약

펼치기

핵심 의견: 여러 AI 모델의 월드컵 4강(프랑스, 스페인, 잉글랜드, 아르헨티나) 예측 결과는 매우 일치했지만, 주요 차이는 점수, 연장전, 승부차기 등 경기 세부 사항에서 나타났습니다. 이는 AI가 거시적 추세 판단에서는 동질성을 보이지만 세부 처리에서는 차이를 보인다는 점을 반영합니다.
핵심 요소:
1. 프랑스 대 모로코: AI 모델들은 일관되게 프랑스의 정규 시간 내 진출을 예측했으며, 점수는 2:0 또는 2:1로 집중되었습니다. 프랑스의 공수 균형이 더 완벽하다고 판단했습니다.
2. 스페인 대 벨기에: AI는 대체로 스페인의 정규 시간 승리를 점쳤지만, Gemini는 1:1로 연장전에 돌입해 승부차기로 승부가 갈릴 것이라고 예측해 벨기에의 역습 능력에 대한 우려를 드러냈습니다.
3. 노르웨이 대 잉글랜드: 가장 큰 의견 차이를 보인 경기입니다. AI는 모두 잉글랜드의 진출을 예측했지만, 여러 모델은 홀란드의 이변 가능성이 경기를 연장전으로 끌고 갈 수 있다고 분석했습니다.
4. 아르헨티나 대 스위스: AI는 아르헨티나의 진출을 예측했지만, 경기가 매우 치열할 것으로 전망했습니다. Claude와 ChatGPT는 연장전 또는 승부차기까지 갈 가능성이 있다고 예측했습니다.

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

With the World Cup quarterfinalists set, the real knockout stage has just begun.

France has maintained its strong form throughout, with consistent attacking firepower and key players stepping up in crucial moments. Morocco continues its Cinderella run, eliminating Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16, proving once again that they are not a flash in the pan. Spain has been the most stable team, with solid defensive discipline and possession control, sealing a dramatic last-minute winner against Portugal in the Round of 16 to keep Cristiano Ronaldo out of the quarterfinals. Belgium, meanwhile, reasserted their attacking presence with a commanding 4-1 victory over the United States.

On the other side, Norway has emerged as the biggest surprise of the tournament. Led by Haaland, they eliminated Brazil 2-1, producing the most shocking upset of the knockout stage. England, despite a bumpy ride, narrowly edged out Mexico 3-2 thanks to their squad depth. Argentina's path to the quarterfinals was the most dramatic, coming back from 2-0 down against Egypt to win 3-2. Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, securing their place in the last eight in their typical "tough nut to crack" fashion.

To provide a reference for the upcoming four quarterfinal matches, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok to predict the winner, scoreline, and whether each match would go to extra time or penalties.

The results show that the AI models were unanimous in their predictions for the four quarterfinal winners, all choosing France, Spain, England, and Argentina for the semifinals. The real divergence was in the details – the specific scores, the possibility of extra time, and penalty shootouts.

AI Unanimously Predicts France to Advance; Morocco Unlikely to Repeat Cinderella Run

The first quarterfinal of this World Cup is France vs. Morocco, kicking off at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10. According to data from predict.fun, in regular time, France has a 63% chance of winning; a draw is 25%; Morocco has a 14% chance. Including extra time and penalties, France's probability of advancing is 79%, while Morocco's is 22%.

This is also the match with the least disagreement among the AI models in the four quarterfinals. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok all favor France to advance, with the only differences being whether France will win 2-0 or 2-1, and whether Morocco can score a goal.

Claude and Qwen both predicted a 2-0 victory for France. They believe France is the team closest to the championship blueprint in this tournament, with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise constantly creating threats upfront, and a midfield supported by Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot, making them more complete than Morocco in both attack and defense. While Morocco has proven they are not just an ordinary dark horse, their squad depth and individual quality still make it difficult to match France head-on.

DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT lean more towards a 2-1 win for France. Their assessment is that Morocco won't be easily broken down and will still have opportunities to create threats through counter-attacks, set pieces, or wing play. However, the problem for Morocco is maintaining their defensive solidity against France's attacking firepower for 90 minutes. As the game progresses into the second half, France's individual brilliance and superior bench depth will become increasingly apparent.

Overall, the AI models unanimously believe that France will advance in regular time, making extra time or penalties unlikely.

AI Favors Spain; Belgium's Counter-Attack is the Key Variable

The second quarterfinal is Spain vs. Belgium, kicking off at 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 11. According to data from predict.fun, in regular time, Spain has a 61% chance of winning; a draw is 25%; Belgium has a 17% chance. Including extra time and penalties, Spain's probability of advancing is 79%, while Belgium's is 22%.

For this match, all six AI models also favor Spain to advance, but there is more divergence in the predicted match process compared to France vs. Morocco.

Claude, Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe Spain is likely to settle the match in regular time, with predicted scores concentrated around 2-0 or 2-1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently has greater overall cohesion, with stable possession, pressing, and defensive discipline, meaning the game's tempo will likely be controlled by Spain.

ChatGPT's prediction is more conservative, favoring a narrow 1-0 win for Spain. It believes this match won't be an open, attacking affair, but rather a contest between "systemic stability" and "attacking explosiveness." Spain may not score heavily, but they are more likely to secure the win through sustained possession, wide variations, or a single set-piece opportunity.

The only model predicting extra time and penalties is Gemini. It forecasts a 1-1 draw in regular time, with no further score in extra time, and Spain advancing via a penalty shootout. The key to this prediction is that if Belgium can capitalize on a counter-attack to score first, Spain could be dragged into a more draining and tense battle.

The Match with the Most AI Divergence: Haaland is England's Biggest Problem

The third quarterfinal is Norway vs. England, kicking off at 5:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to data from predict.fun, in regular time, Norway has a 23% chance of winning; a draw is 27%; England has a 53% chance. Including extra time and penalties, Norway's probability of advancing is 36%, while England's is 66%.

Haaland's presence makes this knockout match the one most likely to produce an upset among the four quarterfinals. Although all six AI models ultimately cast their votes for England to advance, the predictions were noticeably less certain than for the previous two matches. Norway just knocked out Brazil 2-1 in the previous round, so it's no longer a question of "if" they can cause an upset, but that they just did. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need his team to dominate the game; one chance is all it takes for him to cause England serious trouble.

Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe England is likely to win 2-1 in regular time. England has superior squad depth, with players like Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden all capable of deciding a match. In contrast, Norway's attack relies heavily on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard. If that link is cut, Norway's attacking threat diminishes significantly.

However, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT all hedged their bets by including extra time. Claude thinks England might either win narrowly in regular time or be dragged into extra time by Norway. Gemini predicts a 2-2 draw in regular time, with England scoring a late winner in extra time thanks to their bench depth. ChatGPT predicts a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, with England winning 2-1 in extra time to advance.

AI Predicts Argentina to Advance; Switzerland May Drag Match to Penalties

The fourth quarterfinal is Argentina vs. Switzerland, kicking off at 9:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to data from predict.fun, in regular time, Argentina has a 58% chance of winning; a draw is 28%; Switzerland has a 17% chance. Including extra time and penalties, Argentina's probability of advancing is 74%, while Switzerland's is 27%.

For this match, the AI models unanimously agree that Argentina will advance. Unlike the predictions for France and Spain, which were more about "strong team dominance," Argentina vs. Switzerland is seen more as a test of patience.

Qwen and Gemini gave the most optimistic predictions, both favoring Argentina to win 2-0 in regular time. Argentina's comeback from 2-0 down against Egypt to win 3-2 in the previous round has revitalized the team's form and morale. Against a team like Switzerland, which doesn't boast overwhelming attacking firepower, if Argentina can minimize defensive errors, they have a good chance to settle the match within 90 minutes.

DeepSeek and Grok were more cautious, both leaning towards a 2-1 win for Argentina. Switzerland has a solid defensive organization and strong tactical discipline, making them difficult to break down. However, their problem lies in a lack of sustained attacking threat. Once Argentina scores first, it will be difficult for Switzerland to drag the game back into their preferred rhythm for an extended period.

Those who factored in extra time and penalties were Claude and ChatGPT. Claude believes that a team like Switzerland is precisely the type to bog Argentina down in a tough battle, predicting a 1-1 draw leading to extra time, with the outcome eventually decided by penalties. ChatGPT directly predicts an Argentina victory on penalties, arguing that Switzerland has the capability to turn the match into a low-scoring, attritional contest, forcing it to come down to a battle of goalkeepers and penalty accuracy.