Metrics Ventures Market Observation: The Brewing Storm
- Core Thesis: The crypto asset market currently lacks a clear narrative driver, remaining in a consolidation phase characterized by innovation scarcity and low trading volume, expected to persist until Q4 2026. Future market volatility will be dominated by supply chain inflation, fiscal crises in non-AI nations, and the evolution of the Walsh policy stance. Bitcoin's potential breakout may originate from a credit crisis triggered by the bursting of the AI bubble.
- Key Factors:
- The market oscillates between trading reflation and interest rate hike expectations. Tech stocks benefit from short-term liquidity concentration, but crypto assets face strong resistance from the 200-day moving average.
- The chronic issues on the U.S. balance sheet are beyond the Fed's capacity to resolve. Walsh's assumptions may only hold if AI changes social production relations; nations not leading in AI will first experience fiscal and monetary collapse.
- Crypto assets lack independent catalysts, with persistent low trading volume and innovation scarcity. They primarily serve as a global liquidity risk hedge rather than a directly correlated asset.
- Inflation/stagflation caused by supply chain damage points clearly towards vehicles that can absorb significant capital, such as gold, oil, and grain. Crypto assets currently do not fulfill this role.
- Bitcoin requires a longer period for chip accumulation and distribution. The consolidation phase is expected to extend to at least Q4 2026.
- Key areas to watch in the future include the evolution of the Walsh stance, the underestimated severity of supply chain damage, and fiscal/monetary crises in nations like the UK and Japan that do not benefit from AI.
- The collapse of the AI bubble could trigger a sovereign credit crisis, at which point Bitcoin might find the catalyst for its final major bull run.
加密市场二级基金 MVC 5月市场观察
1/过去的一月市场在交易预期上不亦乐乎，一面交易全球供应链受损的再通胀，一面交易不论是事实层面还是沃什预期层面的加息，两者如同冰火，导致商品、多数权益资产不断波动，但实际上受着两者同时冲击的科技却依然获益于短期流动性的集中。
2/从事实层面上，正如此前我们在霍尔木兹局面上的分析，美国存量的资产负债表顽疾已经超出了一个美联储主席能解决的范畴，沃什的所有假设都只有可能在AI改变社会生产关系时成立，而到那一天之前，作为世界多数的非AI引领国家（除中美外几乎全部都是）将率先陷入财政和货币政策的溃散，到那天到底谁是美联储主席其实已经不再重要。
3/从交易层面上，加密资产在上述所有叙事中都暂时看不到可能性，我们也看到200日均线仍然强有力地压制着资产的价格走势，anything but AI就算扩散到anything but mines也很难改变这一局面，硅基与碳基的这一阶段并无加密的舞台，但未来一定会有，请诸君放心。
市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评
加密市场除了Hype以外没有太值得评述的，成交量的低迷和创新的匮乏已经老生常谈，技术面上的压制也非常明显，事实上，加密资产或许是对冲全球流动性风险的良好工具。此刻的市场所有关注点都很难直接与加密产生联系，而供应链受损导致的通胀/滞涨也明确有黄金等金属、石油化工和粮食等更明确的大资金容纳标的。从筹码上来看，比特币也需要更多时间沉淀出清，这一变量的酝酿事关重要，我们预计这次休整仍将持续到至少2026Q4。
往前看，我们认为3件事情将陆续成为未来的市场波动主导：
①短期市场将高度关注沃什是否会重复贝森特、马斯克的覆辙，将自己的立场变成下一个“333”计划；
②全球大量供应链的实质性受损严重性以及未来修复所需要的时间明显被市场低估，中期市场终将认识到局部资源的紧缺和价格波动远超最开始的预期，正如当年的疫情时一样；
③以英、日为代表的AI不受益+通胀第一个倒下国家将陆续出现严重的财政和货币政策危机，我们应该祈祷AI的替代不会太快，否则现存的信贷体系和国家福利财政体系将快速崩溃。
有一天，市场可能会明白AI的泡沫破裂可能会带来部分主权国家传染性的信用危机，而届时的货币财政应对可能是比特币最终的那轮主升的最佳点火器。
