世界杯8強戦が目前に迫る中、AIたちはどのチームに勝ち進む票を投じたのか。

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

After the World Cup quarterfinalists have been decided, the real knockout stage has just begun.

France has maintained a strong team presence with consistent attacking firepower, and someone always steps up in crucial moments. Morocco continues its dark horse run, defeating Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16, proving once again that they are no flash in the pan. Spain has played the steadiest football, with solid defensive discipline and possession control, edging out Portugal with a last-minute winner in the Round of 16 to keep Cristiano Ronaldo out of the quarterfinals. Belgium, on the other hand, re-established their offensive threat with a 4-1 victory over the United States.

On the other side, Norway has become the biggest surprise of the tournament. Led by Haaland, they eliminated Brazil 2-1, creating the most significant upset of the knockout stage. Although England's path was bumpy, they managed a 3-2 narrow victory over Mexico thanks to their squad depth. Argentina's advancement was the most dramatic, coming back from 0-2 down against Egypt to win 3-2. Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, securing their quarterfinal spot in typical "tough nut" fashion.

To provide reference for predicting the upcoming four quarterfinal matches, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok to predict the winner, score, and whether each match would go to extra time or penalties.

Looking at the results, the AIs were unanimous in their predictions for the four quarterfinal matchups, all agreeing on the semifinalists: France, Spain, England, and Argentina. The real disagreements primarily revolved around details like scores, extra time, and penalties.

AI All Predict France to Advance; Morocco Unlikely to Repeat Dark Horse Miracle

The first quarterfinal of this World Cup is France vs. Morocco, kicking off at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, France has a 63% win probability; a draw is 25%; Morocco has a 14% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, France has a 79% chance of advancing, while Morocco stands at 22%.

This is also the match with the least disagreement among AI models in the four quarterfinals. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok all favor France to advance, with the only difference being whether France will win 2-0 or 2-1, and whether Morocco can score a goal.

Claude and Qwen both predicted a 2-0 win for France. They believe France is the team closest to the championship template in this tournament, with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise constantly creating threats up front, and Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot providing support in midfield. Their attack and defense are both more complete than Morocco's. While Morocco has proven they are not an ordinary dark horse, their squad depth and individual abilities still make it very difficult to go toe-to-toe with France.

DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT lean more towards a 2-1 win for France. Their assessment is that Morocco won't be easily broken down and still has a chance to create threats through counter-attacks, set pieces, or wing play. However, the problem is that Morocco will find it hard to contain France's attacking firepower for the full 90 minutes. As the game progresses into the second half, France's individual quality and bench depth will become increasingly decisive.

Overall, the AI models unanimously agree that France will advance in regular time, with no need for extra time or penalties.

AI Favors Spain; Belgium's Counter-Attack is the Only Variable

The second quarterfinal of this World Cup is Spain vs. Belgium, kicking off at 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 11. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Spain has a 61% win probability; a draw is 25%; Belgium has a 17% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Spain has a 79% chance of advancing, while Belgium stands at 22%.

In this match, all six AI models also favor Spain to advance, but the disagreements on the match process are more pronounced than in the France vs. Morocco game.

Claude, Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe Spain is likely to settle the match in regular time, with predicted scores concentrated around 2-0 or 2-1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently has stronger overall cohesion, stable possession, pressing, and defensive discipline, allowing them to likely control the game's tempo.

ChatGPT's prediction is more conservative, favoring a narrow 1-0 win for Spain. It thinks the match won't be an open attacking battle but rather a contest of "system stability" vs. "attacking explosiveness." Spain may not score many goals, but they are more likely to secure the win through possession-based attrition, wing variations, or a single set-piece opportunity.

The only AI predicting extra time and penalties is Gemini. It predicts a 1-1 draw in regular time, no further goals in extra time, and Spain advancing via a penalty shootout. The key to this prediction is that if Belgium can score first through a counter-attack, Spain could be dragged into a more exhausting and tense battle.

The Match with the Most AI Disagreement; Haaland is England's Biggest Problem

The third quarterfinal is Norway vs. England, kicking off at 5:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Norway has a 23% win probability; a draw is 27%; Belgium has a 53% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Norway has a 36% chance of advancing, while England stands at 66%.

The presence of Haaland makes this knockout match the most likely candidate for an upset among the four quarterfinals. Although all six AIs ultimately gave the nod to England, their predictions were noticeably less certain than for the previous two matches. Norway just eliminated Brazil 2-1 in the last round; the question isn't "if" they can cause an upset, but that they just did. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need his team to dominate the entire game; one chance could be enough to get England into trouble.

Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe England is likely to win 2-1 in regular time. England has better squad depth, with players like Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden capable of deciding a match. In contrast, Norway's attack relies more heavily on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard. Once that link is cut off, Norway's attacking threat significantly diminishes.

But Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT all explicitly factored in extra time. Claude believes England might win narrowly in regular time or could be dragged into extra time by Norway. Gemini predicts a 2-2 draw in regular time, with England securing a late winner in extra time thanks to their bench depth. ChatGPT predicts a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, with England winning 2-1 in extra time.

AI Favor Argentina to Advance; Switzerland Could Drag Match to Penalties

The fourth quarterfinal is Argentina vs. Switzerland, kicking off at 9:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Argentina has a 58% win probability; a draw is 28%; Switzerland has a 17% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Argentina has a 74% chance of advancing, while Switzerland stands at 27%.

In this match, the AIs unanimously agree that Argentina will advance. Unlike the predictions for France and Spain, which leaned more towards "strong team dominance," Argentina vs. Switzerland looks more like a match of patience.

Qwen and Gemini gave the most optimistic predictions, both favoring Argentina to win 2-0 in regular time. After coming back from 0-2 down against Egypt to win 3-2 in the previous round, Argentina's form and morale have been lifted. Facing a team like Switzerland, which lacks outstanding attacking firepower, Argentina should be able to settle the match within 90 minutes as long as they minimize defensive errors.

DeepSeek and Grok were more cautious, both leaning towards a 2-1 win for Argentina. Switzerland has a stable defensive organization and strong game discipline, making them difficult to break down easily. However, the problem for Switzerland is their lack of sustained attacking pressure. Once Argentina scores first, it will be very hard for Switzerland to consistently drag the game back into their preferred rhythm.

Factoring in extra time and penalties were Claude and ChatGPT. Claude believes opponents like Switzerland can easily drag Argentina into a tough battle, with the match potentially ending 1-1 and going into extra time, eventually decided by a penalty shootout. ChatGPT directly predicts an Argentina win on penalties, arguing that Switzerland has the capability to turn the game into a low-scoring war of attrition, pushing it to the final stage where it comes down to goalkeepers and penalty quality.

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