专访PPP：世界杯引爆预测市场，如何找到“可复制的聪明钱”？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

With the World Cup heating up, the prediction market has experienced an unprecedented data explosion.

Outcomes of individual matches, advancement scenarios, the eventual champion, the Golden Boot rankings... a massive influx of capital is fueling intense speculation in the prediction market, pushing trading volumes and user engagement to historic highs. Yet, amidst the frenzy, most regular users face an awkward reality – staring at a screen full of fluctuating probabilities, unsure how to operate to achieve consistent profitability.

In search of profitable certainty, many users track "smart money" movements on social media or news platforms. However, in reality, this "wait for a signal, then manually copy trade" approach often leaves them at a disadvantage. Since probabilities in the prediction market fluctuate in real-time, opportunity costs can vanish in an instant, making it difficult for manual operations to keep pace.

To address this, some users have started looking at common copy trading tools available, which harbor a more insidious "smart money trap." Many tools simply use "total profit" or "recent win rate" as the sole criteria to showcase so-called smart money addresses. Users, seeing the dazzling multi-million dollar profits of these "pros," blindly follow, only to often end up with losses.

"Not all profitable addresses are suitable for copy trading."

When discussing the reasons behind this situation, PPP (Prediction Position Platform), a prediction market strategy platform we recently came across, gave the above answer.

PPP explained that some addresses might achieve profits due to special information, extreme positions, one-off market moves, or advantages in capital scale. If regular users only look at profit rankings, they can easily overlook factors like drawdown, liquidity, position style, and actual followability. Blindly copying such addresses often leads to unexpected results. In other words, "profitability" itself does not equate to "copyability."

"An address that can be safely copied by regular users must demonstrate stable profitability over a large sample size across a relatively long period. Win rate, maximum drawdown, strategy stability, and position allocation... every single metric is indispensable. Only addresses that withstand scrutiny across these dimensions possess a replicable profit logic."

AI Modeling + Manual Review: Filtering Truly Replicable Strategies

In PPP's view, the biggest problem facing current prediction market users is how to filter out truly "replicable, verifiable, and sustainable" smart money addresses from the vast sea of trading addresses, and to be able to track the dynamics of related addresses in a simpler way to participate in copy trading.

To this end, PPP is attempting to build a complete system – structuring complex address data and trading signals for screening, ultimately transforming them into strategy entry points that regular users can understand and utilize.

Lorne, a team member at PPP, stated on this matter: "The market lacks neither monitoring tools nor copy trading tools. What's missing is a mechanism that structures and cleanses complex trading behaviors, transforming them into strategy mechanisms that average users can understand, trust, and easily operate."

Lorne added that PPP employs a dual mechanism based on AI modeling and manual review, analyzing specific addresses across multiple dimensions, including but not limited to:

• Profit performance and stability;
• Win rate structure;
• Maximum drawdown and risk exposure;
• Capital scale and position ratio;
• Activity level and trading frequency;
• Holding period...

After comprehensively modeling these indicators with AI, the system first eliminates "accidental profits" and "abnormal trading samples." Then, combined with multiple rounds of manual review, it ultimately selects a batch of trading addresses that are statistically more stable and possess sustained research value.

PPP emphasizes that its AI algorithm model is not disclosed to the public. However, the platform opens up the analytical capabilities of the model to users in the form of an "AI Address Analysis Tool." Users can paste an address they are tracking onto PPP, compare it against the smart money address library, and assess its profitability, information advantage, drawdown resistance, and win rate percentile. This helps determine whether the address possesses stable strength.

Strategy Tiers: Meeting Diverse Needs

After completing the basic screening, PPP further stratifies these replicable smart money addresses and builds two core product systems catering to different user needs.

First is the "Strategy Plaza." According to Lorne, the Strategy Plaza aggregates stable trading strategies that have been verified over a relatively long period. Addresses entering this system typically need to meet stricter screening criteria, including:

• Verification of historical trading for at least half a year;
• A multi-dimensional AI score;
• Manual review confirming strategy consistency;
• Focus on risk-reward ratio and drawdown control capability;
• Emphasis on strategy replicability and long-term stability;

In summary, the Strategy Plaza functions as a filtered pool of long-term strategies, aiming to provide users seeking stable copy trading with more sustainable choices. PPP also conducts periodic reviews of strategies in this section weekly to ensure their continued effectiveness.

Second is the "Trading Leaderboard." Lorne explained that, unlike the Strategy Plaza, the Trading Leaderboard is more geared towards capturing short-term opportunities. This leaderboard is generated by PPP through a combination of AI multi-dimensional modeling and manual review, primarily filtering traders who have shown outstanding performance in the last 30 days. Key focus dimensions include:

• Speed of profit growth;
• Trend of win rate changes;
• Activity and market participation;
• Characteristics of short-term capital behavior;

In this system, high profits often come with higher volatility. PPP explicitly warns about this: "This leaderboard is more suitable for users seeking short-term opportunities, not for long-term stable copy trading strategies."

To meet the diverse operational needs of users, PPP provides simple, easy-to-understand abstract summaries and descriptions of the specific styles of strategies and addresses in both the Strategy Plaza and Trading Leaderboard (e.g., "High Implied Win Rate Strategy, Wide Fluctuations"), allowing users to more clearly understand the differences between strategies and make informed choices.

In addition to the two standardized leaderboard systems mentioned above, PPP also offers a one-click trading function and an address copy trading function. The former helps users immediately copy trades upon receiving a trading signal; the latter supports users in inputting any address of interest to follow it.

Lucky During Trial: Over 60% Daily Return

Lorne revealed that PPP has recently officially launched its Telegram Bot product. Currently, this product serves as the main user interface, while the website and other products are actively being prepared.

Guided by Lorne, we also tried the complete process as a regular user.

Upon entering for the first time, users need to log in to their account and create a wallet through the Telegram Mini App. PPP's wallet system operates in a non-custodial mode, meaning users will always have control over the wallet (the private key can be exported following the process; please store it securely yourself). This implies that any potential future rewards associated with this wallet, such as potential airdrops from Polymarket, will belong entirely to the user.

Next comes the deposit and subscription phase. PPP operates on a subscription-based service; users need to subscribe first to unlock full functionality. The monthly subscription fee is 59 USDC, but there is currently a limited-time discount for a 1.99 USDC subscription fee, allowing early users to experience the service at a low cost.

After subscribing, users can see the unlocked full services on the PPP homepage, including the Strategy Plaza, Trading Leaderboard, Address Copy Trading, AI Address Analysis as mentioned above, as well as "Wallet & Assets" for viewing balance status, "Current Copied Trades" for checking existing positions, and "Signal Detection" for monitoring the latest market trends. PPP has also launched a dedicated World Cup section where users can view the latest match schedules in real-time. Furthermore, PPP will continuously update related smart money movements and key trading signals, helping users quickly identify what capital is betting on.

As for the specific copy trading operation, after selecting a strategy, users can view the core metrics of that strategy across various dimensions. Once they confirm it meets their needs, they can choose the copy amount or customize settings to start copying. A feature worth mentioning specifically is the "Copy Settings" function within the service options. Users can actively adjust parameters like trigger amount, copy amount, slippage, take profit, and maximum holding limit for different strategies right on this interface, effectively controlling the execution boundaries of their copy trades.

I personally deposited a small amount of $100 and ran a test for a day. I copied two strategies and addresses from the Strategy Plaza and Trading Leaderboard each. When I opened the app the next day, I was taken aback – my account net value had peaked at $164, resulting in a daily return of over 60%.

However, during subsequent testing, the account experienced some drawdown. In summary, the main issue was not setting different copy amounts for strategies with varying risk profiles, causing a low-probability event to consume too much capital.

Lorne commented honestly on this: "Although PPP has conducted rigorous screening and review of the historical performance of selected strategies, and has validated the address's capability through multi-dimensional modeling, the platform cannot guarantee that the strategy accounts will continue to be profitable in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that users try it within their acceptable risk tolerance and not get carried away."

Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market

After testing it for a few days and having an in-depth conversation with Lorne, our most intuitive feeling is that PPP should not be simply understood as a "copy trading tool." It seems more like an attempt to build a structured "compilation" pathway "from trading signals to executable strategies."

Smart money does exist, but it is scattered across countless addresses, strategies, and short-term fluctuations. Profit records are real, but the underlying risk structures, capital behaviors, and strategy stability are often obscured by simple profit figures. This explains why "following smart money" is often unstable in practice – users see the results, but the market runs on processes; users want to replicate profits, but often overlook the path.

PPP is trying to solve this disconnect. By deeply combining AI's complex algorithms with manual review, it de-noises and structures the originally chaotic and random on-chain trading signals, extracts smart money strategies with genuine "replicability," and delivers them to users through a low-barrier TG Bot. This serves as both an effective defense against the "smart money trap" and a way to eliminate information asymmetry in the prediction market.

Of course, as Lorne emphasized, no historical backtesting or strategy screening can offer a 100% guarantee of future returns. High returns in the prediction market are inevitably accompanied by high volatility and high risk. While