特朗普が38回目の「合意間近」発言、世界株式市場がTACO式急騰

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

After the US military launched a surprise attack on Iran and Trump threatened to "take strong measures against Iran" only to later cancel them, Trump for the 38th time declared that a "final agreement is imminent," prompting global financial markets, including US stocks, to awaken as if from a dream and usher in another "TACO-style rally."

This morning, the three major US stock indexes closed higher collectively, with the Dow Jones up 1.90%, the Nasdaq up 3.42%, and the S&P 500 Index up 1.73%; crypto-concept stocks also saw broad gains, with COIN rising 4.99% and HOOD rising 7.40% intraday. Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher. South Korea's KOSPI Index opened up 519.25 points, an increase of 6.69%, reaching 8283.2 points, briefly triggering a circuit breaker, with gains later expanding to 8%. The Nikkei 225 Index opened up 880.53 points, an increase of 1.37%, reaching 65097.80 points. Perhaps influenced by this news, oil prices plunged 4.3%, while gold prices rebounded 3.1%.

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its fourth month, global financial markets, especially US stock markets, are pricing in positive developments like the end of the war in advance, leading to a recent string of "news-driven positive catalysts."

Macro Background: Trump's "Negotiation for Change," US CPI Data Hits 3-Year High, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Diminish

Overall, the macro backdrop for today's stock market rally primarily includes a turning point towards peace negotiations in the war, the release of US CPI data, and the ebbing of expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Trump's Remarks Show "TACO Power" Again

According to the latest news from last night into this morning, Trump first cancelled the planned strikes and bombing operations against Iran scheduled for that evening. He then stated in a post that relevant consultations have been submitted to and approved by Iran's highest leadership. The final terms (both in general concept and specific details) have been approved by all relevant parties, including the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, etc. Although Iran and Israel subsequently denied this, the market embraced it.

Furthermore, Trump stated regarding the Iran issue that "an excellent agreement has been reached" and said the relevant documents are in their final stages of drafting, expected to be finalized within the next few days and signed soon. He also mentioned the agreement could be signed in Europe, possibly this weekend, with US Vice President Vance in attendance. And "once Iran signs the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will open." Although negotiations with Iran have "taken too long," financial markets have chosen to "believe first" for now.

US Core CPI Annual Rate Hits 3-Year High

This Wednesday, the US May CPI data was released, which showed:

• Seasonally adjusted CPI MoM: 0.5%, expected 0.50%, prior 0.60%.
• US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM: 0.2%, expected 0.30%, prior 0.40%.
• US May unadjusted CPI YoY: 4.2%, expected 4.20%, prior 3.80%, highest since April 2023.
• US May unadjusted core CPI YoY: 2.9%, expected 2.90%, prior 2.80%, highest since September 2025.

Some analysts believe that US inflation has returned to the "4% handle," and the peak of war-related inflation may have passed. This marks the third consecutive month of significant CPI increases, highlighting the growing expenditure pressure on households, with signs that more consumers are dipping into savings to cover expenses. Following the data release, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June stands at 96.3%, significantly alleviating previous expectations of a Fed rate hike. Trump loudly commented on this data, saying, "I love inflation."

Expectations for Fed Rate Hike This Year Significantly Eased

After the CPI data release, latest news shows that the market has fully priced out expectations of a Fed rate hike this year.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "US inflation is still at an uncomfortably high 4%, but the weaker-than-expected core data does alleviate some pressure. With rising energy prices being the main driver and housing costs easing, we haven't yet seen clear signs of broader second-round effects, which should allow the Fed to remain patient."

Afonso Borges, an analyst at Bank Julius Baer, also pointed out that the modest rally led by short-term Treasuries following Wednesday's CPI report "makes sense," as the better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Fed rate hike later this year.

Japanese and South Korean Markets: Retail Investors Borrow to Buy the Dip, Yen Continues to Weaken

Turning attention to the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, after experiencing market declines over the previous two days, they are now in a phase of significant rebound.

On June 10, according to a Yonhap News Agency report, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) underwent two days of sharp adjustment due to negative US stock news and a plunge in semiconductor stocks. During this period, overdraft account balances at major commercial banks increased by over 600 billion won (approximately 2.67 billion RMB). Analysts believe this is because retail investors, anticipating a market rebound after the stock price crash, began using overdraft accounts for "borrowed investments."

According to Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, which would be the highest policy rate level since 1995. Perhaps influenced by this news, the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) rose 0.2% intraday, with the current exchange rate at 160.168.

Overall, funds in Japanese and South Korean stock markets are still growing steadily, but a BoJ rate hike could gradually tighten liquidity in the Japanese capital market. Bank of America analyst Shusuke Yamada stated that if the BoJ takes a hawkish stance and raises rates at next week's meeting, it is expected to support the Yen. He pointed out that the market has already priced in the rate hike expectation.

Outlook: Uncertain War Situation, Institutions Warn of Deep Corrections, Stock Markets Face a Major Liquidity Test

Although today's volatile "positive news" from Trump stimulated stock market gains across many parts of the globe, a closer look at various dynamic factors reveals that market views are still in a phase of cautious optimism and precaution against deep corrections.

No Turning Point in US-Iran Situation

Ali Akbar Dareini of the Tehran Strategic Research Center stated that despite Trump announcing the cancellation of strikes on Iran, there has been no change in the situation. From Iran's perspective, before any negotiations begin and before Iran is ready to discuss the nuclear issue, the US first needs to take confidence-building measures, but this has not happened. The reality shows that the US has taken no steps to de-escalate tensions. Iran's stance is that it will not compromise under coercion.

Institutional Sentiment Turns Bearish, Beware of Deep Correction

Alex Altmann, Head of Global Equity Strategy at Barclays, who has previously called for "holding positions" during market volatility and accurately timed rebounds, recently issued a rare prudent warning. In his latest market assessment, he stated that driven by technical overbought conditions, excessive sentiment, and macroeconomic pressures, he has turned bearish on the short-term outlook for US stocks. He believes US stocks are currently at the "middle of the mountain" of a structural correction, and the biggest concern now is the severe disconnect between retail sentiment and macro reality. He even stated bluntly, "The S&P 500 Index could face a total deep correction of 6%-7%."

Recent data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey shows that the percentage of bearish investors has surged to 47.7% in the past week, approaching the year's high of 52% (March 18), far above the historical average of 31%.

Furthermore, several institutions have recently expressed bearish views: Previously, BofA Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about US stocks, as a growing number of bearish signals indicate the market is nearing a top.

A team of strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report dated June 5 that currently, about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, consistent with the average level seen during historical market tops. The S&P 500 is statistically overvalued on 17 out of 20 valuation metrics, with 8 of these metrics exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Additionally, high P/E stocks have significantly outperformed low valuation stocks, which strategists see as a sign of excessive speculation. Within the tech sector, the gap between the best and worst performing quintiles has widened to its highest level since February 2000.

Of course, this view faced open opposition from the "New Stock God" Serenity, who believes that BofA's bearish rhetoric should be treated cautiously, as a flood of negative news often appears when institutions need liquidity.

Regarding the South Korean stock market, on June 10, open interest in put options on the Kospi 200 Index has surged sharply relative to call options recently, approaching levels that have previously signaled a market decline. As of the close of the previous trading day, the ratio of protective puts (used to hedge against declines) to speculative calls had neared 2.5 times, the highest level in five years. This metric has only hit this threshold a few times before. Notably, South Korean retail investors sold over 1 trillion won in overseas stocks in the first week of June, possibly indicating a return to the domestic stock market.

SpaceX IPO Arrives, US Stock Market Faces Liquidity Test

Latest news states that the retail subscription amount for the SpaceX US IPO has exceeded $100 billion. Combined with previous reports that "SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion, with 30% of shares allocated to individual investors," the current retail subscription ratio has already been oversubscribed by over 4 times.

US investment manager Jim Chanos stated that investors are pricing grand narratives rather than realistic profit prospects, and SpaceX's valuation multiple has far exceeded Tesla (TSLA.O). Additionally, institutions like Franklin Templeton, along with Saudi and Kuwaiti sovereign wealth funds, have joined the IPO subscription wave. According to foreign media reports, multiple institutional investors have each placed orders for approximately $10 billion or more in shares. Two days ago, the SpaceX IPO had already attracted over $250 billion in investment demand, higher than its planned fundraising of $75 billion, with oversubscription nearing 4 times. Extrapolating based on market trends, the oversubscription ratio could climb to 10 times by its official listing this Friday.

"Wall Street Oracle" and Bitmine Board Chairman Tom Lee commented on this, stating that at this stage, US stock investors are actively selling their existing holdings and accumulating cash to participate in this massive IPO. The ongoing fund diversion effect could be the culprit behind the recent weakness in US stocks. Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, also stated that participating in the SpaceX IPO is akin to buying cryptocurrency about 15 years ago – you could either lose all your principal or achieve exponential returns.

Despite concerns about market liquidity tightening due to the SpaceX IPO, according to market sources, S&P Dow Jones Indices believes SpaceX is eligible for fast-track inclusion in some of its indices. By then, SpaceX could become a "phenomenal giant" in the US stock market.

In summary, global stock markets will continue to face influences from fund liquidity, domestic market policies, and global geopolitical changes like the US-Israel-Iran conflict. In the short term, investors should be wary of Trump repeating his market manipulation tactics of "threatening bearishness" and "TACO-style bullishness."