Cerebras IPOが68％急騰、オンチェーン市場は数時間前に価格を決定していた
- 核心的見解：本稿では、Cerebrasの上場初日の株価急騰を分析し、オンチェーンPre-IPO永久契約プラットフォームTradeXYZの価格設定精度が従来のプラットフォームをはるかに上回っていることを指摘。その構造的優位性——開放的なグローバル参加、双方向取引メカニズム、継続的な価格設定——が、投資銀行主導の伝統的なIPO価格設定モデルを覆す可能性があると論じている。
- 主要要素：
- CerebrasのIPO発行価格は185ドル、初日の始値は350ドルでプレミアムは108％超、終値は311ドル。ForgeやHiiveといった従来のプラットフォームの最終価格はそれぞれ113.50ドルと224.93ドルで、始値との乖離が大きかった。
- TradeXYZのPre-IPO Perp契約は2週間で288～320ドルのレンジに安定し、取引開始直前には380ドルまで急上昇し、実際の市場価格に近い値となった。24時間の取引高は2億8000万ドルに達した。
- 伝統的なIPO価格設定は、投資銀行のブックビルディング（需要積み上げ）における情報の独占に依存している。投資銀行は価格を低く抑えることで機関投資家に高い初日上昇率をもたらし、自らの価格交渉力を維持している。
- TradeXYZは世界中の誰でも、無許可で参加することを可能にし、空売りと買いの両方をサポートする双方向の駆け引きを形成する。一方、従来のプラットフォームは片方向市場（強気のみ）であり、価格が体系的な楽観ムードによって歪められやすい。
- オンチェーン市場は年中無休、3秒ごとに更新される継続的な価格設定を提供し、ニュースや感情の変化をリアルタイムで反映できる。一方、従来のプラットフォームは価格更新頻度が低く（例：Forgeは1日1回）、データはリアルタイムの取引ではない。
- 本稿では、SpaceX、OpenAIなどの高価値IPOが差し迫っていると予測し、オンチェーンのPre-IPO市場がウォール街の価格設定権威に挑戦し続けるだろうと述べている。
Cerebras, widely regarded in the industry as "NVIDIA's strongest challenger," went public on the Nasdaq today.
Cerebras opened at $350, with an IPO price of $185. It briefly surged to $385, representing a premium of over 108% from the IPO price of $185 per share, triggering an upward circuit breaker on its first day of trading.
While this premium is staggering, traders discovered that the Pre-IPO Perp on TradeXYZ was the most accurately priced platform among all Cerebras trading venues, outperforming traditional Pre-IPO platforms.
Rumor has it that Morgan Stanley traders are also checking the Cerebras price chart on Hyperliquid. Source: Community
What Exactly Did Pre-IPO Perp Disrupt?
Before diving into the comparison, let's first discuss the opening price of the Cerebras IPO.
On May 4th, Cerebras submitted an amended S-1 to the SEC, with an initial price range of $115 to $125. This was the first public figure from the underwriting syndicate led by Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays, and UBS.
On May 8th, the price range was raised to $125 to $135. On May 11th, it was raised again to $150 to $160, with the number of shares increasing from 28 million to 30 million. On the evening of May 13th, the final price was set at $185. On May 14th, it opened directly at $350.
Okay, now let's look at those platforms.
First is Forge Global, the private secondary market used by professional institutions, which appears to have the worst pricing.
Forge is currently one of the world's largest private equity secondary trading markets. Listed on the NYSE, it serves institutional investors, VCs, and accredited individual investors. Its core product, "Forge Price," is an algorithmic pricing model that integrates secondary market transactions, funding round information, and platform order book data. It is considered one of the most authoritative price references in the private market.
Accessing Forge requires accredited investor certification, with an annual income threshold of $200,000 or net assets exceeding $1 million. This is not a place an ordinary person can access.
Cerebras's price trajectory on Forge is clear from the chart: from around $20 per share in 2023, stabilizing in the $30 to $40 range in early 2025, climbing rapidly with funding news in early 2026. On May 12th, the day before the IPO pricing, the final Forge Price reading was $113.50, corresponding to a valuation of $29.26 billion.
The Forge Price of $113.50 represented a 174% deviation from the closing price of $311, let alone the opening price of $350.
Next, look at the more active secondary market, Hiive. Hiive's positioning is similar to Forge's, but it focuses more on active trade matching. Its user profile leans towards high-net-worth individual investors and smaller VCs, with a higher transaction frequency than Forge. Hiive's price chart shows more frequent price updates and more volatile fluctuations for Cerebras.
The final transaction price published by Hiive was $224.93, labeled as the "Final Hiive Price," the last valid price on the platform before Cerebras's listing.
$224.93 is significantly more accurate than Forge's $113.50, but still shows a 38% deviation from the closing price of $311 and a 56% deviation from the opening price of $350.
The reason Hiive's number is more accurate than Forge's is that its transactions occur later and more densely, capturing more of the market sentiment close to the IPO. However, it remains a one-sided market, only trading actual equity, with no shorting mechanism and no 24/7 continuous matching.
Now let's look at TradeXYZ.
Launched on May 1st with an initial reference price of $175 and maximum leverage of 5x, anyone globally with a USDC wallet could participate, going long or short.
Within two weeks, the on-chain Pre-IPO Perp traded steadily in the $288 to $320 range. At 10 PM on May 14th, three hours before the Nasdaq officially opened for retail trading, the CBRS on-chain contract price rapidly climbed from the $290 range to $380, with hourly trading volume nearing $100 million. Total 24-hour volume reached $280 million, with open interest of $57.77 million, making it the platform's fourth most active stock contract.
Some might say TradeXYZ was just lucky this time, and the accurate pricing was merely a coincidence.
But this objection misses a more important point: TradeXYZ's accurate pricing is not accidental; it's structural.
Why is TradeXYZ's Pricing More Accurate?
To understand why TradeXYZ prices more accurately, you must first understand why investment banks have monopolized IPO pricing for so long.
The operation of the traditional IPO pricing mechanism relies on a core premise: all judgments about "what this company is worth" must be aggregated through the investment bank's order book.
CEOs and CFOs fly to major financial centers, meeting with all major institutional investors over two weeks, telling the company story one-on-one and collecting indicative prices. These indications all flow into the order book controlled by the underwriters.
No one knows what price Fidelity offered, how many shares BlackRock subscribed for, or Tiger Global's indicative price. The investment bank is the only one with a complete view.
This information asymmetry creates the investment bank's bargaining power. They can set the price at a level that "clears the order book but leaves room for the institutions' first-day pop." This is an art. A 20x oversubscribed order book means all institutions know $185 is low; but the investment bank locks this information away, sets the offer price at $185, and the institutions reap an 89% first-day gain, ensuring they'll return for the next roadshow.
However, when a 24/7 on-chain market exists that allows anyone to participate, permits short selling, and has all positions visible in real-time, price information no longer needs to be aggregated through the order book.
The higher the barrier, the worse the pricing. The more open the market, the more accurate the price.
TradeXYZ allows global participation with no asset threshold, no geographic restrictions, and no invitation system. Every transaction and every order book entry is participants publicly expressing their valuation judgment of Cerebras with real capital.
This means TradeXYZ's price aggregates a much broader set of information than a roadshow – not just institutional judgment, but also the judgment of all market participants aware of this IPO opportunity. More sources of information mean a price closer to true value.
Simultaneously, the shorting mechanism makes it harder for the price to be distorted.
Forge and Hiive are essentially one-sided markets. Sellers are employees or early investors looking to cash out, and buyers are accredited investors bullish on the company. No one can publicly bet "I think this company is overvalued" – because the channel for short selling simply doesn't exist.
This creates a systemic bias: prices in one-sided markets are driven only by upward pressure. Bearish forces have no outlet for expression, and the resulting price systematically skews towards optimism.
TradeXYZ allows shorting. Anyone believing Cerebras is overvalued can open a short position with margin, expressing their judgment with real capital. This kind of two-way betting is necessary for price equilibrium. The struggle between bulls and bears makes it harder for any single sentiment to dominate the price.
Most importantly, Forge Price updates once daily and is the output of an algorithmic model, not a real-time market transaction. Transactions on Hiive are discrete, possibly occurring only once every few days. During the roadshow, the investment bank releases price signals to the market every few days, each time selectively disclosed.
TradeXYZ is a continuously operating matching market, updating its price every 3 seconds. For instance, if news breaks of Sam Altman appearing in a roadshow video, or rumors leak that Arm and SoftBank attempted to acquire Cerebras, or information surfaces that the order book oversubscription ratio went from 10x to 20x, the price moves immediately.
The Pre-IPO craze this year has just begun.
Cerebras is only the first. Later this year, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public. This will be the largest batch of tech IPOs in human history, with total fundraising potentially exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars.
And this means that Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ will continue to disrupt Wall Street's perceptions and command even more pricing power.
