UFOファイル公開後、予測市場では宇宙人の存在確率は20％と評価されているだけ？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

Last night, the U.S. Department of Defense officially launched a dedicated UFO archive website and released the first batch of government documents related to UAPs, unidentified flying objects, and suspected extraterrestrial life. According to public reports, this initial release includes over 160 documents, covering videos, photos, mission logs, sighting reports, communication records, and historical archives, involving multiple U.S. federal agencies including NASA, the FBI, and the Department of Defense.

This batch of documents is not just abstract government reports; it contains a large number of specific images and historical records. Among them, Apollo mission spacecraft captured three anomalous light points hovering above the lunar surface, and communication logs from Apollo 17 include discussions among astronauts about mysterious objects approaching the spacecraft. Other materials show that inexplicable unidentified objects have appeared in places like the United Arab Emirates, Greece, and Iraq.

What is even more viral are the unresolved cases detailed in the documents with specific visuals. A jellyfish-like object appeared over the UAE, and some records captured suspected luminous orbs and UFOs shaped like octagrams. The FBI also photographed anomalous targets near U.S. military aircraft. One image released by the U.S. Department of Defense also claims to show an unidentified object spotted over the western United States in September 2025.

An image released by the U.S. Department of Defense claims to show an unidentified object over the western United States in September 2025 (Source: U.S. Department of Defense)

Compared to text-only reports, these images and sighting records are more likely to rapidly spread UFO discussions, making this release feel like a concentrated showcase of "declassified files."

However, prediction markets offered a much calmer verdict than social media. After the release of the first batch of UFO documents, the probability on the prediction market predict.fun for the event "Will the US confirm the existence of aliens before December 31, 2026?" did not surge dramatically following this explosive news. The market did not interpret this disclosure as the US being on the verge of confirming alien existence; the probability remained at only 20%.

Source: https://predict.fun/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

So, why did this UFO document release fail to significantly shift prediction market sentiment?

Prediction Markets Wager Not on Alien Existence, But on US Government Acknowledgment

Seeing a 20% probability, many might first think that prediction markets estimate the chance of alien existence at only 20%. But this misinterprets the market itself.

What a market like predict.fun truly trades is not whether extraterrestrial life exists in the universe, but whether the U.S. government will explicitly confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or extraterrestrial technology before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026. According to the market's settlement rules, a settlement of "Yes" occurs only when the U.S. President, a member of the Cabinet, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a U.S. federal agency makes such an explicit statement; otherwise, the market settles as "No". The primary source for settlement is official U.S. government information, also referencing consensus from credible media reports.

This rule is crucial. It means a UFO video is not enough, a blurry photo is not enough, an astronaut communication log is not enough, and the military admitting some phenomena are currently unexplained is not enough. What can trigger a "Yes" is the U.S. official stance being sufficiently clear, acknowledging that extraterrestrial life or technology truly exists.

The release of documents simply places more material before the public. Official confirmation means the government endorses the conclusion. The former generates discussion, the latter triggers settlement. Between them lies a difficult line to cross.

Archive Release is Not Answer Publication

This UFO document release is indeed not an ordinary information update. The Department of Defense has centrally released relevant materials through a dedicated website and stated that it will continue to publish more documents in batches. For the public, this means that UFO and UAP materials previously scattered across different agencies, eras, and archival systems are being reorganized into a single official entry point. It centralizes the discussion and makes it easier for outsiders to track what materials the U.S. government possesses.

However, based on the current disclosures, this batch of documents seems more like placing historical sightings, anomalous images, mission logs, and old archives before the public, rather than providing a unified explanation for these materials. The Department of Defense did not directly tell the world "what this is," but instead released more unresolved cases, leaving the judgment to the public.

This places the release in a微妙な position. It has increased transparency without changing the nature of the event. UFO discussions have gained more material, but these materials largely expand the question itself rather than advancing the anomalous phenomena towards confirmation of extraterrestrial origin.

For prediction markets, this document release is more like a new starting point for observation than evidence sufficient to rewrite the odds. It brings the UFO topic back to center stage and gives subsequent document updates speculative value. However, the first batch of materials remains dominated by historical records, sighting reports, and unexplained images. The market is truly waiting for higher-level, harder-to-avoid key signals that are closer to official attribution.

Is 20% an Underestimate or Overestimate?

From an emotional perspective, 20% might seem low. After all, the UFO document release is now on an official cadence, and more materials will continue to be released. If clearer military videos emerge in the future, or higher-level internal records surface, or a federal agency gives a more direct assessment, the "Yes" price could still be rapidly re-evaluated.

But from a market pricing perspective, 20% is not necessarily low. This market does not trade an open-ended question, but a question with a specific deadline. The market must judge not just whether the US will confirm extraterrestrial life or technology, but whether this confirmation will occur before the end of 2026.

Time itself is a barrier. Even if subsequent documents are released and more unresolved cases enter the public eye, it does not mean the U.S. government will complete evidence review, internal coordination, and political assessment within a few months and reach a sufficiently clear conclusion. For an official system, continuing to disclose materials is one thing; reaching a definitive conclusion in a short time is another.

Therefore, the current 20% probability seems more like a tail pricing with a time discount. It does not deny that subsequent documents could continue to create volatility, but it also indicates that the market does not believe the initial release has altered the fundamental judgment of the event. For traders, the document release itself is not scarce; what is truly scarce is the key signal that could push for official attribution before the end of this year. Until such a signal appears, it is difficult for the "Yes" price to be re-elevated solely by archive updates.

When UFOs Enter Prediction Markets, Truth Gains a Price

The most noteworthy aspect of this event is no longer just a single photo, a video, or a jellyfish-like object. UFOs have long resided in the space between emotion, belief, and conspiracy narratives. Believers see more clues in every document release, while skeptics continue to emphasize lack of evidence, misidentification, and technical noise. Both sides have debated for years without truly convincing each other, often because they aren't discussing the same question.

Prediction markets pull this issue closer to reality. They don't attempt to answer whether other life exists in the universe. Instead, they narrow the question to a more concrete level: whether the U.S. government will explicitly acknowledge extraterrestrial life or technology before the end of this year. It turns a formerly ethereal fantasy into an event that can be traded, settled, and continuously adjusted based on incoming information.

So, this roughly 20% probability is not a final judgment on whether extraterrestrial life exists. It is the market's judgment on whether the U.S. government will 'loosen its lips' before the end of the year. What it truly reflects is the traders' comprehensive assessment of the chain of evidence, official statements, and the time window.

When the oldest human mystery enters prediction markets, truth is no longer just awaited and discussed; it begins to be priced. UFOs may still hover in the sky, but the question of when they will be officially confirmed and transition from an unknown phenomenon to a concrete conclusion has already landed on the trading board.