特朗普のツイートでBTCが3ヶ月ぶりに8万ドルを回復
- 核心見解：トランプ氏は「自由計画」を発表し、武力をもってホルムズ海峡に介入、封鎖された船舶を解放すると表明。このニュースは世界の金融市場に変動をもたらした：ビットコインは8万ドルを突破、アジア株は上昇、原油価格は小幅下落。しかし、実際の実行可能性には疑問が残り、市場ではこれもまた「ハッタリ」ではないかとの見方が大勢を占めている。
- 重要要素：
- ビットコインが約3ヶ月ぶりに8万ドルの節目を再び突破。過去12時間で仮想通貨市場全体の強制決済額は2億8600万ドルに達し、うち空売り強制決済は2億5100万ドルとなった。
- アジア株も連動して上昇。MSCIアジア太平洋指数は1.9%上昇し、ハイテク株が反発。SKハイニックス、TSMCなどが大きく上昇した。
- トランプ氏は中東時間の月曜日に「自由計画」を開始すると発表。ホルムズ海峡から封鎖された船舶を誘導して脱出させると約束し、米軍の軍事支援を得ていると表明。
- イランはこの行動に強く反発し、主権侵害だと非難。同時に「ホルムズ海峡管理法」を通じて船舶の通行を制限する方針を改めて表明した。
- トランプ氏の不支持率は62%に達し、任期中で最高を記録。同氏は海峡の通行再開を通じて、支持率のてこ入れ、原油価格の低下、経済の安定化を急務としている。
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
Crazy Monday! After a 3-month hiatus, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $80,000 mark.
The altcoin market is also showing signs of recovery. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past 24 hours, more than 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market cap have recorded gains of varying degrees, with DOGE rising over 5.43%, ZEC up over 10.78%, and WLFI gaining over 7.06%.
In derivatives, Coinglass data shows that total liquidations across the network reached $286 million in the past 12 hours, predominantly liquidating short positions, which amounted to $251 million. The liquidations were concentrated around the time Bitcoin broke through $80,000. Additionally, BTC liquidations totaled $152 million, while ETH liquidations reached $75.5 million.
This rally wasn't exclusive to the crypto market. Asian stock markets opened sharply higher on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing losses since the Iran war. Tech stocks rebounded, with SK Hynix shares surging nearly 10%, TSMC jumping over 6%, and Hong Kong-listed tech stocks also collectively rising. Xiaomi Group gained over 10%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) rose over 6%.
Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices also saw slight declines, with WTI crude oil prices hovering around $101 per barrel.
When both the crypto and stock markets rise on a Monday, accompanied by minor fluctuations in oil prices, seasoned investors might guess that the market puppeteer, Donald Trump, has made another move.
Market Anticipates Trump's 'Project Freedom' Could Open the Strait of Hormuz
On the evening of May 3rd, Eastern Time, Trump posted that he would begin helping ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday (Middle East Time). He stated that many countries unrelated to the current Middle East dispute were appealing to the US for help to release vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. To provide humanitarian aid, the US would safely guide their ships out of the restricted waters, naming the operation "Project Freedom."
Following Trump's post, the US Central Command also stated it would provide military support for the operation to guide stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel, citing this as a response to Iranian military attacks on merchant ships transiting the strait.
Such unilateral action by Trump was naturally bound to anger Iran. As early as May 2nd, Ali Nikzad, Vice Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, emphasized in an interview on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran would absolutely not retreat one step from the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the parliament had approved a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," including provisions to permanently ban Israeli vessels from passing through this critical waterway, requiring ships from "hostile countries" to pay "war reparations" for passage permits, and mandating that other vessels obtain Iranian authorization for transit.
Consequently, Iran views Trump's "Project Freedom" as an infringement on Iran's right to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump's announcement, Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that any US intervention in the new maritime order of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
On April 8th, the US and Iran signed a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement. As the agreement was about to expire on April 21st, Trump announced its indefinite extension to continue negotiations with Iran. Although the ceasefire was in place, control of the Strait of Hormuz remained with Iran during this period, and it had not fully opened the waterway for passage.
Looking at the consequences, if Trump forcibly implements "Project Freedom," the current situation between the US and Iran could escalate from negotiations back to armed conflict. In that case, not only would the Strait of Hormuz fail to function normally, but in the long run, the war's impact on global financial markets would be far more severe than today's rally.
Of course, whether "The Mouth" Trump will actually execute the "Project Freedom" plan remains uncertain. It is already Monday morning (May 4th) Middle East Time, but there has been no news in the market about US forces successfully escorting merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this be another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade? (Related reading: Did the War Win or Lose? Trump: I Profited)
This Trump-style "cry wolf" story seems familiar to the Iranian side as well. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi commented earlier, at the end of March when Trump posted to manipulate oil prices, saying, "Every week when the market opens, Trump makes such statements to drive down oil prices." Therefore, Ebrahim Azizi also dismissively remarked when Trump announced "Project Freedom" that no one would believe such a "blame-shifting" trick.
Although we don't yet know if "Project Freedom" will actually be implemented, Trump's eagerness to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident. This is not only tied to US national interests but also crucial for Trump to secure his presidency.
On May 3rd, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump's disapproval rating reached 62%, a record high during his two terms. With midterm elections approaching, such an approval rating is quite unfavorable for Trump, making him urgently in need of landmark achievements. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the most ideal goal (even though the current problems are largely of his own making).
On one hand, externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz would be a re-demonstration of US global deterrence. Trump could package it as a complete victory over Iran, showcasing American strength. On the other hand, domestically, restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz could lower global crude oil prices, quelling dissatisfaction among the American public and related stakeholders. Additionally, lower price levels could increase the success rate for newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in convincing other officials to agree to a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related reading: Powell Bows Out but Doesn't Leave the Stage, Trump's Rate Cut Hopes May Be Dashed)
On the morning of May 4th, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social, showing him holding multiple cards with the caption, "I have all the cards." On the surface, this seems like confidence, but often, those with the weakest hand are the ones who bluff the most.
