NEAR Doubles in a Week, But It's Riding Someone Else's "Fee Switch"?
- Core Thesis: NEAR's price has nearly doubled over the past week, but what truly supports its valuation is Intents transaction fees (accounting for roughly 85% of REV), not the privacy or AI narrative; this revenue lifeline is highly dependent on an opaque channel, SwapKit, posing structural risks.
- Key Elements:
- NEAR has risen 178% since mid-August, and 350% cumulatively since the fee switch was activated, with Intents accounting for roughly 85% of REV.
- Execution fees have fallen 83% since January 2025, dropping from $120,000 per week to $20,000, as native on-chain activity shrinks.
- SwapKit accounts for 35% of Intents transaction volume and 61% of fees, but NEAR cannot see the source wallets of the traffic, and SwapKit routes NEAR alongside THORChain, Maya, and Chainflip, with its position re-competed for on every quote.
- Confidential Intents locked value rose from $28 million to $131 million, but 50% of that is wrapped NEAR, representing the protocol mining emissions with its own token; excluding this, external deposits are approximately $65 million.
- ZEC accounts for 9% of Intents transaction volume, and ZODL's fee share doubled to 16% in September, but the privacy narrative is not the dominant share.
- The AI pivot has no quantifiable contribution whatsoever; NEAR AI Cloud has not disclosed revenue, customers, GPU counts, or token pathways.
- Token burns have dropped from 100,000 NEAR in January 2025 to 20,000 NEAR in August 2026, with a monthly burn rate of only 0.7%, meaning the burn itself has limited impact.
Original Author: Marc Arjoon
Original Compilation: TechFlow
TechFlow Introduction: NEAR's price has nearly doubled over the past week, with the market treating it as a new target for privacy and AI narratives. But after breaking down the revenue structure in this article, it becomes clear that what truly supports the valuation is Intents transaction fees — and one-third of this lifeline's traffic comes from an aggregator that doesn't disclose its wallet sources. For investors looking to chase the rally, this is a card they must see clearly.
When price and fundamentals move in the same direction, I pay extra attention.
NEAR has nearly doubled in a week and is up 178% since mid-August, driven by confidential perpetual contracts and Zcash-fueled swap activity. This rally looks sudden, but the underlying business changes have been brewing for much longer.
Behind this repricing, REV has regained growth momentum, but it relies on a completely different business model. Since January 2025, execution fees have dropped 83%, from $120,000 per week to $20,000.
However, every dollar of loss has been offset by NEAR Intents (a transaction type that lets users execute cross-chain operations without manually managing execution paths or gas fees). Before the fee switch was activated in February 2026, NEAR was only routing Intents transaction volume and didn't earn a cent itself. Today, Intents accounts for approximately 85% of NEAR's REV, and NEAR has risen 350% since activation.
This bet on Intents has come at the expense of native on-chain activity. Relayer-sponsored (delegated) transactions accounted for 78% of NEAR's transaction volume in Q1 2026 and have been the mainstay since 2024. These are gas-subsidized consumer applications, and now the subsidies have stopped.
This shift is visible in the fee data. Token burns fell from 100,000 NEAR in January 2025 to 20,000 in August 2026. The current monthly burn rate is 0.7%, though even at the historical high of 3.4% set in March 2024, the burn itself has always been negligible.
NEAR Intents activity consists primarily of deposits, withdrawals, and swaps.
But what actually generates revenue is swaps, and SwapKit (a cross-chain swap SDK embedded in wallets such as Ledger Live, BitPay, and Trust Wallet) is the largest channel.
I did find a hidden risk in this structure. SwapKit accounts for 35% of Intents transaction volume but contributes 61% of fees. NEAR cannot see which wallet the traffic specifically comes from, and SwapKit routes NEAR Intents as one of four interchangeable providers, alongside THORChain, Maya, and Chainflip. In other words, NEAR's position must be re-competed for in every single quote. As can be seen from the chart below, stablecoins, BTC, ETH, and ZEC make up the vast majority of traffic. So NEAR's Intents revenue depends on who can offer the best quote, and it has no idea who is churning.
Speaking of what can't be seen, NEAR is also benefiting from the privacy narrative, so it's worth examining how big that part actually is. Zcash has indeed contributed, with ZODL (the Zcash wallet) doubling its fee share to 16% in September, and ZEC accounting for 9% of Intents transaction volume. But none of these are dominant shares. What has truly skyrocketed is the total value locked in confidential Intents, rising from $28 million in mid-August to $131 million after perpetual contracts launched. However, 50% of that is wrapped NEAR, deposited into a project that distributes points using staking yield. Essentially, this is the protocol using its own token to farm its own emissions. Excluding that portion, external confidential deposits are approximately $65 million.
And what about the AI narrative? The AI pivot has not contributed anything quantifiable. NEAR AI Cloud does not disclose revenue, customers, GPU counts, or any path to the token. So there's not much I can say here. Two years into being an "AI company," everything that reaches NEAR holders comes from Intents, and most Intents flows in through SwapKit, which decides in every quote whether NEAR gets the trade — and doesn't reveal which wallets are behind it.
That said, Intents is genuinely a useful product for AI agents, simply because it's inherently useful. SwapKit's share continues to decline while transaction volume continues to rise, and confidential TVL is accelerating regardless of its internal composition. Meanwhile, fees on most other chains have already plummeted over 90%, with nothing to fill the gap. NEAR built the product, flipped the switch, and it's actually working. Don't underestimate a project that has proven execution capability: it has a top-tier team, and it's still shipping.
