9 Taiwan stocks, three main lines: "New Stock God" Serenity's AI Industry Chain Taiwan Map

Original Author: Ada, Deep Tide TechFlow

The highly sought-after "new stock guru" on X, Serenity, recently shared a systematic analysis of the Taiwan AI industry chain. He named 9 Taiwan-listed stocks covering three main themes: CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit), and compound semiconductors, with CPO being characterized as the "biggest industry theme for the next phase." Goldman Sachs predicts that the global Optical TAM will explode from $15 billion in 2026 to $154 billion in 2028, with CPO's share growing from $164 million to $91 billion. He also clearly stated that the Taiwan AI industry chain has no bubble, and the real risk lies not in cross-strait relations but in the capital expenditure of hyperscale cloud service providers.

TSMC COUPE Countdown to Mass Production in 2026, 5 Taiwan Stocks Each Play a Role

The key timeline supporting Serenity's CPO theme judgment is TSMC's COUPE (Compact Universal Photonic Engine) platform entering mass production in 2026.

According to TrendForce's April 1st report citing TSMC's Advanced Packaging Integration Division Director, Hou Shangyu, speaking at SEMICON Taiwan, COUPE leverages SoIC technology to heterogeneously integrate electrical integrated circuits and photonic integrated circuits, with mass production on schedule for 2026. Hou also pointed out three major bottlenecks for CPO scaling: wafer-level testing, Fiber Array Unit (FAU) integration, and high-speed optical packaging assembly. The 5 CPO Taiwan stocks named by Serenity correspond precisely to these three bottleneck areas and their supporting components.

The first stock is FOCI (3363.TWO), with a market cap of approximately $2.8 billion. FOCI is a key partner for NVIDIA and TSMC in the FAU field and a core supplier within the COUPE architecture. Serenity stated on X that FOCI's current market cap of about $2.8 billion "has not yet fully reflected its strategic position in the industry chain." Morgan Stanley estimates that FOCI's FAU business alone could contribute approximately NT$20 billion in revenue by 2028, compared to nearly zero currently. Hunterbrook Media and Citrini Research confirmed the "fingerprint-level" correspondence of the three companies (FOCI, Himax, and TSMC) in the 22-channel FAU back in March through cross-referencing four patents, which serves as the strongest external evidence of FOCI's entry into the core COUPE supply chain.

The second stock is Shunsin Technology (6451.TWSE), with a market cap of approximately $1.4 billion. Shunsin is Hon Hai Group's optical communication packaging and testing subsidiary. Serenity once listed Shunsin on X as "Taiwan NVDA CPO supply chain idea #1," reasoning that "Hon Hai is NVIDIA's ODM, much like Celestial getting a free ride to listing through MRVL." He gave a personal estimate of Shunsin's forward P/E ratio being around 20x for 2027.

The third stock is Xintec (3374.TWO), with a market cap of approximately NT$47.6 billion. Xintec is TSMC's wafer-level packaging and testing subsidiary, chaired by CH Chen, primarily focused on wafer-level chip-scale packaging and wafer testing. According to a DIGITIMES report from May 29, 2026, Xintec is preparing capacity for its testing business expansion in the second half of 2026. Serenity, in a recent interview, categorized Xintec as a "beneficiary of COUPE related testing business."

The fourth stock is MSSCorps (6830.TWO), with a market cap of approximately $1.4 billion. Serenity explicitly stated on X that he built a position in MSSCorps, making a strong judgment: "This looks like a functional monopoly in the CPO inspection field. The market might confuse it with the MA-tek/iST material/failure analysis duopoly." He later cited MSSCorps' own statement, "the company aims to capture 90% of the CPO inspection market share," as confirmation. MSSCorps' customer base includes TSMC, NVIDIA, AAPL, AMAT, etc. Among the three major CPO bottlenecks identified by TSMC, "wafer-level testing" is the area where MSSCorps directly positions itself.

The fifth stock is Nextronics (8147.TWO), with a market cap of approximately $210 million. Serenity's reason for building a position in Nextronics is that it provides "CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules" to NVIDIA's CPO supply chain. Nextronics is the smallest among the 5 CPO Taiwan stocks in terms of market cap, fitting Serenity's consistent stock selection profile of "small market cap + no coverage + located at a physical bottleneck."

The 5 Taiwan stocks, ordered by supply chain links, are roughly: FAU access (FOCI), optical communication packaging & testing (Shunsin Technology, Xintec), yield inspection (MSSCorps), and connectors & thermal (Nextronics). The downstream customers for this entire chain are highly concentrated in NVIDIA and TSMC.

Three Taiwan ASIC Manufacturers Each Tied to a Hyperscaler's Custom Chips

Beyond NVIDIA GPUs, the continued scaling of custom ASICs from hyperscale cloud service providers like AWS Trainium, Google TPU, and Microsoft Maia constitutes the second main theme of Serenity's Taiwan stock list.

Alchip (3661.TWSE) is the most representative target on this path. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Taipei, Alchip specializes in the design and manufacturing of advanced CMOS ASICs. According to industry chain data compiled by Global Tech Research, Alchip primarily assists Amazon's Annapurna Labs with the backend design of AWS Trainium and Inferentia series chips, with current projects including Trainium 1 and Inferentia 2. Serenity recently stated that Alchip is expected to gain more market share in the design of AWS Trainium 3, especially as Amazon's recent private investment in Alchip is interpreted by the market as a significant signal. Alchip's cooperation with Ayar Labs in the CPO field also represents a further expansion of its potential market space.

Unimicron (3037.TWSE) is an ASIC beneficiary from the perspective of ABF substrates and PCBs. Citing a Bernstein research report from May 4th, Gotrade News stated that Unimicron is expected to capture approximately 35% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU ABF substrate share and over 50% of ASIC chips like Google TPU and AWS Trainium. Bernstein listed TSMC and Unimicron as "the two most representative Taiwan stocks in the Asian market AI Capex cycle." Unimicron's Q1 2026 revenue grew 8% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 18%.

MediaTek's (2454.TWSE) collaboration with Google on TPUs has been widely circulated in the market. According to Global Tech Research analysis, MediaTek may potentially participate in backend design support for Google TPU V7e/V7p in the future. Serenity recently stated that while some of this positive sentiment is already reflected in the stock price, he believes MediaTek's future ASIC business growth remains worth watching closely. In the coming years, MediaTek could become a critically important link in the hyperscale supply chains of major US cloud companies.

These three Taiwan companies, from the three different dimensions of design services, substrate packaging, and SoC design, have each secured a core position in the custom chip operations of hyperscale cloud service providers.

Win Semiconductor: The Market-Underestimated InP/GaAs Duopoly Player

Serenity's most confident and clearly expressed holding among Taiwan stocks is Win Semiconductor (3105.TWO).

Win Semiconductor is one of the world's leading compound semiconductor wafer foundries, forming a duopoly with GlobalFoundries in InP (Indium Phosphide) and GaAs (Gallium Arsenide) foundry services. The market's traditional impression of Win Semiconductor comes from its relationship with the SpaceX Starlink and Broadcom (AVGO) supply chains.

Serenity's recent statement on X was: "Win will win. So I am long Win." Serenity's core judgment is that, as one of the two duopoly players in InP and GaAs foundry, future demand for SpaceX Starlink LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellites, Continuous Wave (CW) lasers, and vision/radar light sources for humanoid robots will all pass through Win Semiconductor's foundry capacity.

He provided a valuation estimate, suggesting Win Semiconductor's forward P/E ratio for 2027 is about 35x. While this might not seem cheap, he believes "management intentionally guides earnings lower, so the P/E will appear very cheap once actual profits are realized." The business of helping silicon photonics companies scale up laser production capacity is, in Serenity's view, the core future growth engine for Win Semiconductor, a factor not yet fully priced in by the market.

InP is the same segment of the supply chain occupied by AXTI, the "Strait of Hormuz"-style stock Serenity first accumulated in the US market. He likens InP substrates to "the oil for the future era of AI optical communications." Win Semiconductor's position in the Taiwan stock market is the downstream foundry node in this supply chain.

Essential Links Not Mentioned by Serenity but Necessary for the Full Picture: Upstream Materials, Energy, Liquid Cooling

The 9 Taiwan stocks named by Serenity are concentrated in the mid-stream segments of CPO and ASIC. For a panoramic view of the Taiwan AI industry chain, upstream materials and downstream energy/liquid cooling sectors are equally indispensable. Serenity did not directly cover these parts in his public comments, but they are essential for a complete understanding of the Taiwan AI industry chain.

On the upstream materials side, TSMC itself (TSMC, 2330.TWSE) is the central node of the entire picture. According to Bernstein's forecasts, TSMC's profit growth in 2026 is about 40%, with a compound annual growth rate of about 20% for 2027-2028; the company has locked its 2026 capital expenditure guidance in the high-end range of $52-56 billion. In the upstream transmission chain of AI Capex, TSMC acts as both an amplifier and a throttle valve. Its capital expenditure direction directly determines the order rhythm for all downstream Taiwan stocks in packaging, testing, substrates, inspection, connectors, etc.

On the energy and liquid cooling side, AI data centers in Taiwan are facing substantial electricity supply pressure. According to a report from Reccessary in December 2025 citing Taipower's System Planning Department Director, Yi Xuquan, key global grid equipment like transformers and gas turbines are in a state of shortage. The delivery cycle for gas turbines has stretched from 2-3 years to 7-8 years, with prices doubling, and "the speed of grid construction simply cannot keep up." This supply-side bottleneck has created structural opportunities for three key Taiwan stocks.

First, Delta Electronics (2308.TWSE), as a leader in power management and integrated liquid cooling solutions, has penetrated both the white space (IT computing) and grey space (power cooling) scenarios of AI data centers. Second, AVC (3017.TWSE) is a global leader in thermal solutions, covering full-stack technologies for cold plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling. Finally, Auras Technology (3324.TWSE) specializes in liquid cooling module manufacturing and is a Tier 1 supplier to NVIDIA. According to Goldman Sachs, the total global server cooling market size is expected to grow by 111%, 77%, and 26% in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reaching $17.6 billion by 2027. This growth curve is synchronized with the CPO growth curve within the AI capital expenditure cycle.

The Real Risk Lies Not in Cross-Strait Relations, But in Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure

Serenity's assessment of the overall risk for the Taiwan AI industry chain diverges from the mainstream market narrative.

He recently stated that the Taiwan AI supply chain currently has no bubble, with valuations of many Taiwanese companies still relatively low compared to similar US Nasdaq-listed companies. Geopolitical risks are overly amplified by the market because Taiwan is already an indispensable part of the global technology supply chain; "no country would choose a zero-sum game of large-scale supply chain disruption." In the long term of 7-10 years, the US is building its domestic supply chain through companies like Intel, but over the next 2-3 years, there are no particularly significant systemic risks.

He pointed out that the real risk worth tracking is the capital expenditure of hyperscale cloud service providers. The sustained expansion of investments by major cloud players like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle is the core driving force behind the current AI industry boom. "As long as these companies continue to increase AI infrastructure construction, the Taiwan supply chain will continue to benefit. But if hyperscalers start cutting capital expenditure, the Taiwan AI supply chain could experience a significant valuation correction."

Initial signs for a "stress test" of this judgment are beginning to emerge.

A marginal change that just appeared in the market is worth tracking. On June 3rd, Broadcom reported Q2 FY2026 results, providing Q3 FY2026 AI chip revenue guidance of $16 billion, which was approximately $1.2 billion below the sell-side consensus of $17.2 billion compiled by LSEG. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan maintained the full-year AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $56 billion unchanged in the earnings call, without raising it. The market interpreted the "no raise" negatively, leading to a single-day crash of 10.26% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) on June 5th, its largest single-day drop since March 2020. On the same day, South Korea's KOSPI fell 5.54%, and on June 8th, the KOSPI opened down 8.37%, triggering a circuit breaker.

However, the key reference for current observation is that TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure is locked in the high-end range of $52-56 billion, with no substantial downward revision yet. The capital expenditure guidance from the hyperscalers themselves is also still in an upward revision channel. Whether Serenity's "real risk" judgment gets triggered depends on the capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle in their Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports. This is the core premise for Serenity's Taiwan stock list to hold true and the most critical marginal variable to track in the coming quarter.