Shallowest bear market low? Glassnode: Bitcoin holds key cost basis band, $95K–$97K is the real battle

Original Author: Frederik Theissen

Original Compilation: TechFlow

TechFlow Introduction: Glassnode's Week 38 on-chain weekly report states that in this bear market, Bitcoin has never closed a daily candle below the Realized Price, and price has reclaimed both the True Market Mean and the long-term holder cost basis; sell-side pressure remains light, ETFs have returned to net inflows, and altcoins are broadly rising with very little leverage. The next hard test lies around $95K–$97K—where options market maker hedging and the Mean MVRV Price converge.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has never closed a daily candle below the Realized Price during this bear market. The share of coins in profit briefly fell to levels comparable to 2022, yet Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has remained positive throughout.

Price is sitting just above a long band of long-term holder supply at $84K–$85K. The next major on-chain resistance is the Mean MVRV Price at approximately $96.7K.

Options positioning piled up dramatically within a single day: market maker hedging could accelerate moves between the current price and $92K, and slow the pace near $95K.

Profit-taking remains only a fraction of what was seen at the 2024–2025 tops, even though nearly all short-term holders have returned to breakeven.

ETF buying has revived, spot volumes have more than doubled from August lows, and this time the price rally is accompanied by synchronized volume expansion across multiple exchanges.

Altcoins are broadly rising, but traders have barely added new leverage.

A Shallower Low

Never Below the Realized Price

Last week's report noted that price had fallen below the True Market Mean. Within days, price reclaimed that level. Bitcoin is currently trading above the True Market Mean of approximately $77K and the short-term holder cost basis.

The Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation. During the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, price traded below this line for months on end. This time, price has never closed a daily candle below the Realized Price; even the June low held above it—something no prior bear market since 2017 has managed.

If price continues to hold above the True Market Mean, the June low will be the shallowest of the three bear market lows.

Broad but Shallow Losses

At the June low, the Percent Supply in Profit fell to roughly the same level as the November 2022 low. The number of coins underwater was similar to the previous bear market.

But the losses themselves are far shallower. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the aggregate paper gains and losses across the network, has never turned negative this cycle; in 2018 and 2022, it plunged deep into negative territory. Smaller losses typically mean weaker forced-selling pressure.

The Next Set of Key Levels

Support Below, Resistance Above

In August, the debate centered on whether this rally was merely short covering. Now that price has reclaimed the cost basis that repeatedly capped it this year, the question becomes how far it can run. Last week's report flagged a long band of long-term holder supply as a ceiling and noted a large stack of call options above it; price has now cleared both.

The largest long-term holder supply band sits at $84K–$85K, just below the current price. The next major resistance is the Mean MVRV Price at approximately $96.7K—equal to the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term average MVRV, corresponding to the level where the average holder's profit returns to its long-term norm. Buyers who entered one to two years ago near the top of the range also return to breakeven around this zone.

To the downside, the True Market Mean at approximately $77K is the primary support. If price holds above $84K, the path to $96.7K remains open; if it falls back below $84K, $77K comes back into view.

Options Positioning Piles Up at the Top

Options data points to the same zone. In just one day, market maker positioning on Deribit piled up rapidly near the top of the range: positive gamma around the $95K strike jumped to the highest reading on the chart, while negative gamma built up between the current price and $92K.

Gamma describes how market makers hedge their options. Between the current price and $92K, their hedging means buying as price rises and selling as it falls, potentially accelerating moves; near $95K the effect reverses, with hedging tending to slow the pace. That level sits just below the Mean MVRV Price of approximately $96.7K, so if the rally continues, $95K–$97K will be the first hard test.

Sell-Side Pressure Remains Light

Profit-Taking Still Modest

Sharp rallies usually come with heavy profit-taking. So far, this one hasn't. Weekly net realized profit during the current advance remains only a fraction of what was seen at the 2024 and 2025 tops.

The current pace more closely resembles the start of the previous uptrend: in late 2023 to early 2024, profit-taking proceeded at roughly the same tempo, long before the larger sell waves that followed. If realization stays at this level, the rally still has room; if the weekly scale approaches that of the 2024 and 2025 tops, it would indicate holders are using strength to distribute.

Recent Buyers Are Back in Profit

Short-term holders are the most likely to sell into a rally, and they have nearly all returned to breakeven. Their percent supply in profit has risen above the "sell line"—the level near which their selling has historically heated up. This line was crossed during early recoveries such as 2019 and 2023, but also appeared near tops such as 2021 and 2025; on its own, it cannot tell us the next price direction.

Market-wide realized profit remains low, so "motivated to sell" has not yet become "actually selling aggressively." If price falls back below the sell line while realized profit rises, that would be the first signal that recent buyers are starting to take profits.

ETFs Step Back In

Inflows Recover

Over the five trading days since this squeeze began, U.S. spot ETFs have collectively seen approximately $1.3 billion in inflows, following two weeks of net outflows. The latest single-day inflow was also the largest since early July.

Funds are buying more as price rises. If inflows roughly maintain this pace, ETF demand will continue to underpin this move.

Volume Returns Alongside Buying

Across all exchanges, 24-hour spot volume has more than doubled from August lows, up roughly 121% since the rally began.

More important than the volume expansion itself is the context in which it appeared. From late 2025 through mid-year, every spot turnover expansion accompanied a decline: four consecutive volume spikes were all printed on falling prices, representing capitulation selling. August broke that sequence—the first time in a year that volume expanded while price rose.

Relative to its own recent history, the recovery remains incomplete. The seven-day average is still about 30% below a year ago, so this looks more like volume climbing off the floor than a return to 2025 norms. Only if price continues to hold above the pre-rally range can this be confirmed as sustainable buying rather than just a multi-week squeeze.

Exchange Rankings Still Shuffling

Below the top spot, the rankings have turned over. Gate climbed 4 places within two years—the biggest mover on the list—and now ranks third by BTC spot volume. Poloniex rose 3 places and Bybit rose 1, while four other exchanges slipped over the same period.

Gate's climb is not a single-month fluke. It has held a top-three spot in 9 of the past 24 months, and its share of covered spot volume has risen from 2.0% two years ago to 9.1% today—a net gain of 7.1 percentage points, the largest of any exchange.

The top spot is the exception: Binance has ranked first every month over these 24 months, still clearing approximately 31% of covered spot volume. Below it, the rotation is broad-based rather than a single challenger—by share, 9 exchanges gained and 3 lost over two years, distributed across the middle of the rankings rather than clustered at the top. This represents genuine competition among exchanges and means inflows are landing across many order books rather than pouring into a single venue—healthier for the market than high concentration.

Altcoins Rise With Almost No Added Leverage

Very Little New Leverage

Altcoins have joined the rally. Over the past week, 72.5% of altcoins in the tracked sample outperformed Bitcoin; during August's squeeze, the same share peaked at just 39%.

Traders have barely added leverage. Coin-denominated altcoin perpetual futures open interest has hardly risen over the past 30 days, and fewer than half of markets are adding positions. During overheated phases in February 2021 and December 2024, the same metric surged sharply, with most markets adding positions simultaneously.

This altcoin advance is primarily driven by spot buying, making a sudden wave of liquidations less likely. A broad-based jump in open interest would be the signal that the rally is starting to overheat.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has now reclaimed the True Market Mean and the long-term holder supply band that capped it for most of 2026. The June low held above the Realized Price; if price continues to hold above approximately $77K, it will be the shallowest bear market low since 2017. Profit-taking remains light, ETF buying has revived, and altcoins are rising with almost no new leverage. The next test is at approximately $95K–$97K—where options positioning and the Mean MVRV Price converge. Hold above $84K and the path remains open; fall back below $84K and then below $77K, and the recovery narrative comes under pressure.

Data as of: on-chain daily metrics, ETF flows, and options as of September 21, 2026; spot volume as of September 22, 2026; hourly prices as of September 23, 2026; the most recent daily data points remain subject to revision.