Bitcoin Consolidates as Direction Nears, HYPE Resumes Short-Driven Trend |特邀分析

This week, Bitcoin continues its rebound above the low of $57,820, with the price now approaching the key resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300. The battle between bulls and bears is entering a white-hot phase—if the rebound encounters resistance and retreats within this zone, the daily-level correction may return; if it breaks through effectively, the short-term structure will shift towards a stronger bullish scenario. HYPE continues its corrective trend from the high of $72.97. This week, the focus is on the tussle within the $62 to $63.5 zone. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, while short-term operations strictly follow model signals, dynamically switching between Plan A and Plan B.

Core Trading Views for This Week:

• Multi-timeframe structure analysis of BTC (details in Part 1)
• BTC price forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies for this week (details in Part 2)
• Hourly-level structure analysis of HYPE (details in Part 3)
• HYPE price forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week (details in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• Validation of BTC price forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's daily trend entered a phase of consolidation and oscillation. The subsequent market movement confirmed our prediction.
• Effectiveness of BTC short-term trading: Last week, we executed one short-term long trade (1x leverage), successfully realizing a profit of approximately 3.45%. (Details in Part 5)
• Validation of HYPE price forecast: Last week's article clearly indicated that if the price rebounds at the start of the week but fails to break the previous high of $72.97, it would signal a reversal of the prior uptrend, potentially initiating a daily-level correction from the $72.97 high. As observed, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.

I. Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis of Bitcoin

1. Daily-Level Structure Analysis of Bitcoin: (Based on analysis after May 6th)Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

① As shown in Figure 1: The corrective trend initiated from the May 6th high of $82,850 has formed a four-segment correction structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4).

② After hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1st, the market is currently in the (3-4) rebound segment. The rebound high has already touched $65,600, approaching the key resistance at $65,700. Currently, this rebound segment may not be over, and the recent high of $65,600 is likely not the final endpoint of "Point 4."

③ If the (3-4) rebound segment shows clear signs of exhaustion and confirms a correction within the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, then the first leg (wave a) of the daily-level rebound initiated from the July 1st low of $57,820 may be complete.

2. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Hourly-Level Structure: (Using the 4-hour chart as the analysis timeframe)

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

① On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the July 1st low of $57,820 has clearly formed a seven-segment structure from (44-45) to (50-51). Among these, the five segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment" consolidation zone E.

② Based on the current structure analysis, the price is in the (50-51) rebound segment.

• If the price effectively breaks the $65,700 resistance and continues its rebound, this segment has a high probability of transforming into a departure segment from the consolidation zone. At this point, it's necessary to compare its momentum with the entry segment (44-45). If a momentum divergence forms when "Point 51" concludes, the rebound starting from "Point 44" (approx. $57,820) may end, significantly increasing the probability of a subsequent correction.
• If the rebound fails to break the $65,700 resistance effectively, the probability of short-term range-bound oscillation remains high.

II. BTC Price Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View for This Week: Focus on the outcome of the price testing the key resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700 to $67,300 (Previous significant resistance area)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 to $71,000 (Previous significant resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $64,700 (Previous significant support level)
• Second Support Zone: $60,950 to $62,000 (Previous significant support area)
• Third Support Level: Around $57,820 (Previous significant support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding unexpected news events)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a shift to a bearish market structure.

• Current medium-term short positions should be maintained at around 20%.
• If the price shows signs of stagnation in the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, combined with topping signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-term Strategy:

Use 30% of the position, set stop-losses, and seek "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use the 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating timeframe)

③ To dynamically navigate complex market evolutions in short-term trading, we have preemptively formulated two specific operation plans: A and B.

Plan A: Tentatively Short at Strong Resistance Zone

• Entry: If the price encounters resistance in the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, combined with topping signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the correction reaches key support levels, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

Plan B: Lightly Long at Strong Support Zone

• Entry: The price rebounds to the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, meets resistance, and pulls back. If it shows signs of stabilization and reversal above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottoming signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds near important resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

III. Hourly-Level Structure Analysis of HYPE

Figure 4: HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

1. As shown in Figure 4, the correction initiated from the July 7th high of $72.97 (Point 61) can be broken down into an eight-segment correction structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Among these, the five segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" bearish consolidation zone.

2. Last week's review pointed out: During the subsequent (62-63) rebound segment, if "Point 63" fails to break the previous high "Point 61" ($72.97), it signifies the end of the daily uptrend from "Point 54 to Point 61," and the market was expected to initiate a daily-level correction from "Point 61." The market indeed corrected as expected last week, falling from "Point 63" to "Point 68," with a maximum decline of approximately 16.17%.

3. Based on the 4-hour chart analysis:

Comparing the departure segment (67-68) with the entry segment (61-62) of the consolidation zone, the downward momentum of the departure segment is significantly stronger. This suggests a low probability of "Point 68" ($58.16) being the final low of this correction. The market is currently in the (68-69) rebound segment, and the price may subsequently make a new correction low.

IV. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (07.20 ~ 07.26)

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $62 ~ $63.5 zone
• Second Resistance Level: $68 ~ $69.5 zone
• Third Resistance Level: Around $72.97

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $58.16
• Second Support Zone: $52 ~ $55 zone

Core HYPE View for This Week: Focus on the outcome of the price testing the $62 to $63.5 zone during this rebound.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week:

If the price rebounds to the $62 to $63.5 zone or a higher resistance area and shows clear correction signals, suggest investors consider entering short positions with a small position size, adhering strictly to stop-loss discipline, and keeping position size within 30%.

V. Bitcoin Short-term Trading Review

Strictly following our operation plan and the trading signals generated by our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term long trade last week, achieving a total profit of approximately 3.45%.

1. Short-term Trading Record: (See Table 1)

Bitcoin Short-term Trading Details Summary: (Leverage 1x)

Table 1

2. Short-term Trading Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy:

a. When the price adjusted above $61,000, it showed signs of stabilization and reversal, forming a "Bottom Division" K-line pattern.

b. The "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a bullish momentum divergence signal.

c. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (white dot + red dot), the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart broke above the horizon line (magenta-red), issuing a bottom reversal signal.

Consequently, we established a 15% long position at $62,376.

Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near $65,700 and showed signs of stagnation, forming a "Top Division" K-line pattern.

b. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive top warning signals (white dot + green dot), the signal band (blue) in the chart broke below the skyline (green), coinciding with a top signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model," forming a top resonance signal.

Consequently, we fully closed the position around $64,530.

Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 3.45%.

3. Short-term Trading Diagram

Figure 5: BTC 30-Minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

VI. Special Reminders:

1. Upon entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the level that locks in a 1% profit.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit thereafter, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets are volatile, and all market analyses and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based solely on this content.