Gate Institutional Weekly Report: WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $70, LST Sector Pulls Back Again

Executive Summary

• The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices lower, shifting the market's trading narrative from "war premium" to "Fed maintaining higher rates for longer." The NASDAQ fell approximately 3.3%, while BTC and ETH declined by about 6.9% and 9%, respectively.

• BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced significant net outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA being the largest sources. As geopolitical risks cooled and AI tech stock volatility intensified, the trading volume share of stock-class assets on TradFi Perp platforms rose to 55%–60%, with capital refocusing on US equity risk trades.

• On-chain capital continued to concentrate on high-turnover trading scenarios. PumpSwap emerged as the week's biggest incremental driver, reflecting a shift in Solana ecosystem capital from traditional DEXs towards issuance and high-frequency trading venues.

• DeFi liquidity maintained a defensive posture. Stablecoins, LSTs, and lending markets were generally cautious. Aave's lending scale contracted slightly, with interest rates remaining low. Capital continued to concentrate in the main Ethereum market, and overall risk appetite has yet to see a clear recovery.

• BTC's price fell back to around $60,000, but this was not accompanied by a significant expansion in Open Interest (OI). Funding rates remained consistently positive, suggesting the current adjustment was more attributable to spot and existing position adjustments, with the overall BTC derivatives market maintaining a low-leverage profile.

• Monthly options trading volume surged significantly ahead of expiration. The 25D Skew continued to weaken, and DVOL rose to approximately 47–48, reflecting the market repricing of downside risk.

• Gate's institutional business saw a 15% week-over-week increase in futures trading volume. CrossEx's weekly trading volume grew by 6% WoW, and its June monthly volume increased by 10% MoM, consistently hitting new all-time highs. The AI customer service robot underwent continuous upgrades, achieving an accuracy rate of over 85% for basic problem resolution.

1. Market Focus

Last week (June 22–28, 2026), the global macro theme centered on three key points: the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, sticky US inflation, and a maintained hawkish expectation for the Fed's policy. First, following the phase of détente between the US and Iran, the market quickly reduced its concerns over a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant unwinding of the war premium in crude oil. Brent fell back to around $73.83/barrel, and WTI dropped below $70/barrel. Lower oil prices reduced the risk of a renewed uptick in energy inflation and also improved short-term consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for June rebounded nearly 5 points from the previous month. Consequently, the market transitioned from trading "geopolitical shock / rising oil / reaccelerating inflation" to assessing whether inflation would continue to cool amidst easing energy prices.

However, US inflation data did not support a rapid shift towards easing by the Fed. The May PCE price index was up 4.1% year-over-year, with the core PCE at 3.4% YoY, still significantly above the Fed's 2% target. However, the PCE month-over-month figure was 0.4%, slightly below the market expectation of 0.5%, preventing a further sell-off in the bond market. This combination implies that inflationary pressures remain, particularly in core services and wage-related prices, which are still sticky. However, there was no further severe upside失控 in the short term. The market thus maintained its "higher for longer" rate assessment while diminishing concerns over more aggressive rate hikes. Yields on US Treasuries fell throughout the week, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.37% and the 2-year yield to about 4.09%, reflecting how lower oil prices dampened inflation expectations, though the policy rate path remains constrained by inflation.

From a macro transmission perspective, geopolitical easing was positive for risk appetite and bonds, but sticky inflation limited the scope for asset valuation recovery. The US dollar and real interest rates continued to pressure gold, tech stocks, and crypto assets. The NASDAQ fell about 3.3%, with BTC and ETH declining approximately 6.9% and 9%, respectively. Lower oil prices eased corporate costs and consumer inflation expectations. Overall, last week was not simply a risk-off event. Instead, it represented a repricing process as the market moved on from the "war premium" and started to grapple with the question: "Can the Fed maintain tightening amidst high inflation?"

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 Institutional Risk Appetite Cools in Tandem; IBIT Sees $1.304B Net Outflow

Both BTC and ETH ETFs experienced significant capital outflows last week, indicating a synchronized cooling of institutional risk appetite. BTC spot ETFs saw total net outflows of approximately $1.787 billion, worsening from the roughly $228 million net outflow in the prior week. ETH spot ETFs recorded net outflows of about $274 million during the same period, a significant widening from the ~$10 million net outflow the previous week. At the product level, the BTC ETF with the largest inflow was the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC (~$71.7 million), while the one with the largest outflow was BlackRock's IBIT (~$1.304 billion). For ETH ETFs, Bitwise's ETHW saw the largest inflow (only ~$600,000), while BlackRock's ETHA was the biggest source of outflows (~$236 million).

AUM directionally was likely down across the board. BTC's price fell about 6.91% last week, and the large ETF net redemptions meant asset size suffered from both price depreciation and share contraction. ETH's price declined about 9.04% last week, with even weaker capital inflows from the ETF side, suggesting more pronounced AUM pressure. Overall, institutional sentiment shifted from allocation or wait-and-see towards defense and de-risking. Notably, BlackRock's products, which had been the strongest capital magnets, became the primary source of outflows, indicating that core institutional capital was reducing its beta exposure to crypto assets. Compared to BTC, ETH ETFs showed weaker new buying interest, indicating a more significant contraction in institutional risk appetite for higher-beta assets.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

• TradFi Perp DEX: Over the past week, the trading structure on TradFi Perp DEXs underwent a clear shift, with stock-class assets regaining market dominance while trading activity in commodity-class assets continued to cool. Since late June, the trading volume share of stocks rapidly rose to approximately 55%–60%, making them the largest trading category. Concurrently, the share of commodities dropped sharply from ~40%–50% to under 20%, indicating a notable decline in the trading heat previously dominated by safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil. Meanwhile, the trading share of Indices/ETFs remained relatively stable at around 25%–35%, continuing to be an important allocation direction, reflecting user participation in US stock market volatility via index products. This shift is closely related to the recent macro environment. The significant volatility in the AI sector, the adjustment in tech stocks, and the market's repricing of the rate cut path all increased trading activity for stock and index perpetual contracts. Additionally, Pre-IPO assets like SpaceX continued to garner attention, further channeling capital towards the stock ecosystem. Overall, the capital focus within TradFi Perp DEXs appears to be shifting from commodity trading back towards stocks and index assets. The market trading logic has transitioned from risk-off driven by geopolitical risks to risk trading revolving around US stock volatility, the tech sector, and macro events. Stock-class assets are expected to remain a primary growth driver for the TradFi Perp market.

• Gate TradFi Perp Trading Volume: Despite the cautious macro environment, user demand for trading TradFi perpetual products remained robust. Over the past week, trading volume on Gate's TradFi Perp saw a notable WoW increase, with daily turnover mainly concentrated in the $4 million to $6 million range. Overall volatility narrowed compared to previous weeks, but trading activity did not show a marked decline. By asset class, metals remained the absolute core source of trading volume. Perpetual contracts for gold and other precious metals contributed the vast majority of turnover, reflecting that amidst the Fed's hawkish stance, recurring geopolitical risks, and volatile high gold prices, safe-haven assets remain a key focus for market capital. Meanwhile, the trading share of Indices increased significantly from prior periods, showing clear volume expansion at the start of the week. This indicates that as the AI sector adjusts, US stock volatility rises, and individual stock event-driven dynamics strengthen, user participation in US stock-related perpetual contracts is continuously increasing.

• Gate TradFi Number of US Stock Assets: Gate officially launched its US stock trading service on June 2nd. Leveraging advantages such as support from real underlying assets, direct trading with USDT, no overnight holding fees, and high liquidity, the service has garnered continuous market attention and steadily growing trading volume since its launch. Currently, Gate supports 7 major asset classes: ADRC, Stocks, ETFs, ETNs, ETSs, ETVs, and PFDs, and is continuously expanding its product coverage. In terms of the number of assets, the total number of tradable instruments has doubled since launch. The stock category has shown the most significant growth, increasing from approximately 70% of total assets at launch to 85%, further enriching users' investment choices. Looking ahead, Gate will continue to promote access to more markets, integrate global liquidity, and build cross-market trading capabilities, constantly expanding its diversified asset coverage to further strengthen its strategic positioning as a global asset trading and market access platform.

• TradFi Order Book Depth: We selected XAUT, the highest-volume TradFi asset, to analyze its order book depth (Delta). Over the past week, XAUT's order book liquidity shifted from being dominated by long positions to a short-biased one, with prices trending lower overall. Early in the week, Delta remained positive multiple times, with buyer liquidity continuously flowing in, pushing XAUT prices to oscillate in the $4,180–$4,330 range, indicating relatively strong market support. After June 22nd, as macro risk sentiment shifted and gold prices fell, the order book Delta quickly turned negative, with consecutive negative values ranging from $500,000 to $1 million. This showed a clear strengthening of active sell orders, and XAUT prices simultaneously broke below $4,100, briefly approaching the $4,000 level, reflecting the concentrated release of short-term selling pressure. Over the weekend, although the order book still showed intermittent buy orders, the persistence of positive Delta noticeably weakened, and the market lacked sustained upward capital momentum. If the US dollar and Treasury yields continue to remain high, gold tokens may continue to face headwinds in the short term. If expectations for rate cuts revive or geopolitical risks escalate again, order book buying interest could strengthen once more, driving price recovery.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 DEX Volume Didn't Expand Broadly; PumpSwap Emerges as the Week's Key Structural Variable

Overall DEX volume did not sustain the previous period's strong expansion. Uniswap and PancakeSwap remained firmly in the top two positions, but their volumes slightly declined from the prior week, with top spot pools entering a consolidation phase. The change came from PumpSwap, whose volume and user numbers both stepped up significantly, propelling it directly into third place. Speculative flow on Solana hasn't disappeared; it has merely shifted away from traditional entry points like Raydium and Meteora towards venues more focused on issuance and high-frequency trading. Protocols like Aerodrome, Bisonfi, and Tessera also saw some recovery, with Base and emerging matching scenarios continuing to absorb active capital.

3.2 Stablecoin Supply Remains Defensive; Regulatory Debate Impacts Market Pricing More Than Short-Term Issuance

Stablecoins were generally more contractionary this week. Both USDT and USDC saw slight declines. USDS, USDe, USD1, and PYUSD did not show significant expansion, with only DAI performing relatively stronger. There was no large-scale influx of new USD liquidity on-chain; instead, it was more a migration of existing capital among different stablecoins. On the news front, on June 28th, a US community banking organization publicly opposed stablecoin-related bills. The core concern was that reward-bearing stablecoins could drain deposits from the local banking system, elevating the stablecoin regulatory issue from a crypto industry topic to a matter of redistributing interests within traditional finance. Also that week, the Bank of England adjusted its stablecoin regulatory framework, shifting from position limits to issuance scale limits. This indicates that major jurisdictions are all attempting to balance innovation, payment efficiency, and the stability of the banking system.

3.3 LST Sector Retreats Again; Market's Risk Discount on Staked Assets Widens Anew

The LST sector reversed from the previous week's recovery to a broad decline. Protocols on the ETH side, like Lido, Rocket Pool, and StakeWise, faced pressure, while Jito and Sanctum on the SOL side also weakened synchronously. As TVL is denominated in USD, the retracements were significantly influenced by price volatility in ETH and SOL, but capital preferences indeed became more cautious. Following the KelpDAO/rsETH incident, institutional risk assessment for staked assets has become stratified. Standard LSTs, restaking assets, and cross-chain wrapped assets are no longer placed in the same risk basket. Recent discussions around wstETH's cross-chain security with Chainlink CCIP within the Lido ecosystem have reinforced the importance of bridge security and issuance control in LST pricing.

3.4 Aave Lending Slightly Contracts; Capital Still Favors the Deepest Ethereum Main Market

Aave's total loan balance this week saw a slight dip compared to the previous week. The Ethereum main market remained the absolute core but also bore the brunt of the contraction. Plasma was largely stable, Mantle saw some recovery, while MegaETH, Arbitrum, and Base were weaker. This suggests that capital hasn't left Aave, but the pace of multi-chain expansion has noticeably slowed. The lingering effects of the rsETH/KelpDAO incident persist, making borrowers more sensitive to collateral safety, liquidation depth, and risk parameters. Ongoing governance discussions within Aave regarding WETH unfreezing, USDC liquidity buffers, and the V4 Hub-and-Spoke architecture are translating this risk event into systemic-level fixes. For institutions, Aave remains the core DeFi lending infrastructure. However, the short-term growth logic has shifted towards stabilizing leverage on the main market and repricing the risk framework.

3.5 Aave Core Asset Rates Remain Divergent and Low; USDC Remains the Most Sensitive Pool

This week, the loan utilization rates for Aave's three core assets showed little overall change. The average borrowing cost for USDC edged slightly higher, while USDT's decreased, and WETH's remained low. USDC saw brief intra-week spikes in its highest rate, indicating that the core USD pool remains sensitive to changes in utilization. USDT rates were more stable, and WETH showed no significant borrowing demand, suggesting that directional ETH leverage hasn't resumed on a large scale. This combination corresponds to a cautious capital environment. Stablecoin financing is still used for turnover, arbitrage, and liquidity management, but the market hasn't resumed building up concentrated directional risk exposure. Considering the Aave community's discussions on USDC liquidity buffers, the protocol is actively working to reduce the risk of rate jumps during extreme utilization scenarios. The signals from the interest rate side are more moderate than the loan balance figures suggest. The panic has passed, but the memory of risk remains.

3.6 Protocol Revenue Structure Improves; Stablecoins Provide the Base, while Trading and Infrastructure Contribute Flexibility

Protocol revenue this week showed more structure than the week prior. Tether and Circle provided the most stable cash flow sources, with little overall change. Revenue from Hyperliquid Perps grew again, indicating that despite a weak spot market, demand for on-chain perpetual contracts and high-frequency matching remains resilient. Solana traffic entry points like Pump.fun, PumpSwap, Phantom, and Jupiter also saw recovery, echoing the volume expansion seen by PumpSwap in the DEX sector. The improvement in revenue for Aerodrome, Base, Titan Builder, and Aave V3 suggests that revenue elasticity