Gate Institutional Weekly: BTC Price Recovers at Low Levels, Gate US Stock Trading Volume Hits Another New High

Summary

• Crypto market risk appetite recovered, with BTC up ~6.8% and ETH up ~12.2% WoW. ETF flows remained net negative overall, but ETH ETFs were the first to see a modest rebound, signaling a shift from panic redemption to tentative positioning by institutions.

• TradFi equity Perp trading volume share rose to approximately 60%–65%. Gate TradFi weekly trading volume remained high at ~$85 billion, with CFDs still contributing ~95% of the volume. US stock trading volume grew for the fifth consecutive week, reaching a new cyclical high.

• DEX trading structure continued to diverge. Volumes on Uniswap and PancakeSwap declined, while PumpSwap sustained high growth, making Solana’s issuance, trading, and wallet ecosystem the primary source of incremental capital and protocol revenue.

• The LST sector also recovered. Staked ETH and SOL assets rebounded in line with improving risk appetite, while Aave lending demand re-concentrated on the Ethereum main market.

• Stablecoin supply remained weak overall, but USDC continued to strengthen its institutional channels, supported by BNY Mellon and others. The rise in Aave USDC borrowing rates reflected renewed demand for high-quality dollar liquidity, with protocol revenue shifting from on-chain derivatives to Solana traffic aggregators.

• BTC OI recovered from ~$20.5 billion to $22 billion, with funding rates remaining positive, indicating leveraged capital re-entering the market. Options volume also picked up. The 25D Skew recovered from deeply negative levels, while DVOL eased from 46–48 to 39–40.

• Gate’s June spot and futures trading volumes increased by 49.39% and 11.19% MoM, respectively. Gate Institutional’s spot and futures volumes grew by 17.71% and 10.70% MoM. In the first week of July, CrossEx trading volume grew 26% WoW.

1. Market Focus

Last week (June 29 – July 5, 2026), the global market narrative was collectively driven by cooling US employment, falling interest rate expectations, and a recovery in risk appetite. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, missing the market expectation of ~115,000, with data for April and May revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%, primarily due to a decline in labor force participation.

Following the data release, market concerns about a July rate hike by the Fed eased. The 10-year US Treasury yield settled at ~4.4477% after weekly fluctuations, while the 2-year yield fell to ~4.13%, providing a marginal relief in rate pressure. US equities rose during the holiday-shortened week, with the Dow up ~2.0%, the S&P 500 up ~1.8%, and the Nasdaq up ~2.1%. However, rotation pressure was evident in the AI and semiconductor sectors, suggesting that capital was not simply chasing high-valuation growth stocks but was repricing risk assets under the "economic slowdown without a more hawkish policy" scenario. In commodities, oil prices fluctuated between a Middle East risk premium and expectations of OPEC+ production increases, with WTI crude hovering around $70. Gold remained at high levels, reflecting that inflation and geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated. The crypto market benefited from falling US Treasury yields, easing dollar liquidity pressure, and improved risk appetite in equities. Both BTC and ETH strengthened during the week, with ETH showing higher beta, indicating capital shifting from defensive BTC allocations to higher-beta assets.

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 ETF Flows Still Significantly Negative; BTC ETFs Saw ~$1.787 Billion in Net Outflows

On the ETF front, BTC spot ETFs continued to see significant net outflows last week. US BTC spot ETFs experienced approximately $1.787 billion in weekly net outflows, extending the heavy redemption pressure seen in June. However, on July 2, a single-day net inflow of $221.72 million was recorded, ending a streak of about 10 trading days with cumulative outflows totaling ~$2.73 billion. In terms of AUM, total net assets of BTC spot ETFs were ~$72.818 billion on June 26, rising to ~$74.369 billion by July 2, an increase of ~$1.551 billion, primarily driven by the BTC price rally offsetting net redemptions. By individual product, the largest inflow on July 2 was into Fidelity's FBTC, at ~$166 million, followed by ARKB at ~$91.84 million. The most notable outflow was from BlackRock's IBIT, which saw a single-day outflow of ~$40.43 million, remaining on a continuous outflow narrative.

Pressure on ETH spot ETFs was significantly less than on BTC. Combined public daily frequency data showed net outflows of ~$13.65 million from June 29 to July 2, with outflows of ~$30.04 million and ~$27.6 million on June 29 and 30, respectively, turning to inflows of ~$14.89 million and ~$29.08 million on July 1 and 2. AUM rose from ~$8.594 billion on June 29 to ~$9.020 billion on July 2, an increase of ~$426 million, more attributable to the ETH price rebound and modest capital replenishment. At the product level, ETFA ranked among the top for inflows on both July 1 and 2, with ~$29.74 million flowing in on July 2. Products like ETHE / ETHB shouldered the main redemption pressure during the week.

Overall, institutional sentiment isn't fully bullish, but has shifted from panic redemption to tentative replenishment. The trend for BTC will need confirmation from resumed inflows into IBIT, while ETH shows early signs of modest capital returning at lower levels.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

• TradFi Perp DEX: Over the past week, the trading structure on TradFi Perp DEXs continued to concentrate towards equity assets. The share of equity perpetual contracts rapidly increased to approximately 60%–65%, re-establishing them as the absolute market dominant. The previously dominant commodity share fell back to around 10%–15%, indicating a cooling of safe-haven trading in assets like gold and oil. Meanwhile, the share of index/ETF contracts remained stable at about 20%. Trading volumes for other asset classes like forex, bonds, Pre-IPO, and ETFs remained low, contributing little to overall volume, as market capital continued to concentrate on highly liquid equity products.

• Gate TradFi Trading Volume: Total Gate TradFi trading volume was approximately $85 billion over the past week, a decline of about 13%–15% WoW. The previous week's total volume neared $98 billion, marking a recent high. This week's pullback to ~$85 billion still remains above levels seen in late May and early June, indicating overall stable trading activity. CFDs remained the absolute core business. CFD volume was approximately $81 billion, accounting for about 95% of total volume. Although lower than the previous week, it still contributed the vast majority of trading volume, continuing as the main growth driver for Gate TradFi's product suite. Perps maintained resilience. Perp volume held steady in the $400–$500 million range, comprising about 5% of the total, showing stable demand for derivatives trading against a backdrop of moderating market volatility.

• Gate US Stock Trading Volume: Gate officially launched its US stock trading service on June 2. Leveraging advantages like support from real underlying assets, the ability to trade directly with USDT, no overnight holding fees, and high liquidity, Gate's US stock trading volume continued to grow rapidly over the past week, reaching a new cyclical high and furthering the growth trend seen over the past five weeks since early June. User participation has been steadily increasing with the rollout of features like regular US stock trading, pre-market and after-hours trading, and a Web-based 7×24 trading interface. Concurrently, weaker US employment data boosted market risk appetite, increasing activity in US equities, which further propelled the platform's US stock trading volume. This reflects that Gate's global stock business is entering an accelerated expansion phase.

• TradFi Order Book Depth: We analyzed the order book depth (Delta) for XAUT, the most actively traded TradFi asset. Over the past week, green delta bars significantly outnumbered red bars, particularly on July 1, 3, and 6, where there were multiple net increases in buy-side liquidity of $500,000–$800,000. This indicates market makers are continuously replenishing bid orders, providing strong market support. XAUT's price rose from ~$4,000 to the $4,160–$4,180 range, and during this period, the buy-side depth on the order book increased concurrently, suggesting the rally was supported by genuine liquidity rather than a short-term pump on thin depth. While there were some negative deltas of $200,000–$500,000 between July 2 and 5, these were short-lived and did not form a continuous liquidity withdrawal, having a limited impact on price. Overall, the recent significant buy-side injections suggest strong liquidity support has formed around the $4,150 level. If macro risk-off sentiment persists in the short term, XAUT's depth structure is likely to keep the price strong.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 Top DEX Spot Markets Cool Off; PumpSwap Brings Solana Speculative Flow Back to the Forefront

The structural shift in DEX trading continued this week. Uniswap and PancakeSwap remained in the top two positions, but their volumes edged lower compared to the previous week, with no significant expansion in turnover for major spot pools. Conversely, PumpSwap continued its upward trajectory, maintaining high levels of both volume and active traders, as speculative flows on Solana migrated towards platforms that integrate issuance and secondary trading. Meteora also saw some recovery. However, platforms more associated with mature liquidity scenarios, such as Raydium, Curve, and Aerodrome, showed flatter performance, indicating that capital wasn't flowing into a broad cross-chain rally.

3.2 Stablecoin Supply Remains Weak Overall, But Institutional Channels for USDC Continue to Broaden

Stablecoin supply continued to contract this week. Most major assets, including USDT, USDC, USDS, USD1, and USDe, saw slight declines, with no large-scale new dollar inflows appearing on-chain. A relative bright spot was the expansion of PYUSD, while DAI remained stable, reflecting minor capital reallocation between regulatory and yield narratives. This week, BNY Mellon announced it would support the custody, transfer, minting, and burning of USDC on its digital asset platform, a substantial positive development for USDC's institutional channels. Concurrently, news of BlackRock, Google, and Coinbase supporting Open USD indicates the stablecoin competition is pivoting towards integration with payments, custody, clearing, and institutional wallets. However, opposition from community banks to stablecoin legislation continues to brew, meaning regulatory hurdles have not disappeared.

3.3 LST Sector Recovers Sharply from Last Week's Pullback; ETH and SOL Staked Assets Rebound in Tandem

The LST sector saw a notable recovery this week. ETH-side protocols like Lido, Rocket Pool, and StakeWise all bounced from their lows of the previous week. The SOL side also showed strong beta, with Jito, Sanctum, and Jupiter Staked SOL all experiencing varying degrees of rebound. As TVL is dollar-denominated, this recovery is partly linked to the price increases of ETH and SOL, but it also indicates that the de-risking of the previous week did not evolve into sustained redemption pressure. Following the KelpDAO/rsETH incident, institutional assessment of LSTs remains skewed towards safety and clarity of path, with the risk premium between standard LSTs and cross-chain wrapped assets having already diverged. Overall, this week's LST recovery was driven by a combination of valuation repair and improved risk appetite.

3.4 Aave Lending Rebounds Driven by Ethereum Main Market; Multi-Chain Structure Remains Divergent

Aave's lending balances saw a recovery this week. The primary increment came from the Ethereum main market, as capital, upon recovery of risk appetite, still prioritized the core market with the deepest liquidation reserves and highest collateral quality. Smaller improvements were seen in markets like Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Ink, but Plasma and MegaETH continued to decline, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of new market expansion from earlier periods. This structure aligns with the risk-repair logic of recent weeks: Aave has not lost lending demand, but capital is becoming more selective, preferring chains and collateral assets with robust risk parameters.

3.5 Aave Core Asset Lending Rates Re-diverge; USDC Funding Pressure Clearly Rises

Rates for Aave's three core assets showed new divergence this week. The average borrowing cost for USDC rose significantly, USDT edged higher, while WETH remained largely low. USDC's highest rate during the week saw a brief spike, indicating the core dollar pool remains sensitive to utilization changes. In contrast, WETH rates did not rise in tandem, suggesting no crowding in ETH directional leverage. This combination typically corresponds to increased institutional demand for stablecoin turnover, arbitrage, and collateral management. Discussions within the Aave community about increasing USDC liquidity buffers have real relevance in light of this week's data. The conclusion from the rate side is clear: market risk appetite has somewhat recovered, but high-quality dollar liquidity became the most expensive first.

3.6 Protocol Revenue Shifts from High-Beta Derivatives to Solana Traffic Hubs; Pump Ecosystem Shows Strongest Performance

The structural change in protocol revenue was significant this week. Tether and Circle remain the most stable cash flow bases, but the growth elasticity primarily came from Solana traffic hubs like Pump.fun, PumpSwap, Axiom, and Phantom. Hyperliquid Perps revenue declined from the prior week, as the earlier heat in on-chain perpetuals and equity/Pre-IPO index trading cooled somewhat, though it remains one of the highest-grossing on-chain derivatives protocols. Titan Builder revenue continued to improve, reflecting that order flow and MEV-related infrastructure still have strong cyclical elasticity. Aave V3 revenue saw a slight decline, matching the divergence in lending rates but uneven overall balance recovery. Combined with DEX data, this week's revenue and trading trends point to the same theme: mainstream spot platforms are holding the fort, while the real marginal elasticity comes from Solana's issuance, wallet, and high-frequency trading front-ends. Stablecoin issuers provide stable cash flow, while trading infrastructure and traffic gateways provide short-term elasticity.

4. Derivatives Tracking

4.1 BTC Price Recovers from Lows; OI Rise Signals Leveraged Capital Re-entering

Last week, BTC price first declined and then rallied. Early in the week, the price oscillated around $60,000, dipping to near $59,000 around June 30, before gradually recovering to the $63,000–$64,000 range from July 3 to July 5. Overall, the price shifted from the previous week's weakness to a low-level rebound, though it has not fully escaped its range-bound structure.

In terms of OI, a clear recovery emerged this week. Near June 29, OI was around $20.5 billion, before gradually rising and returning to approximately $21.9–$22.0 billion by July 3–5. The price rebound coupled with rising OI indicates leveraged capital re-entered the market, providing some support for this recovery. The funding rate remained positive throughout the week, mostly in the 0.003 to 0.006 range, indicating persistent long-side dominance