World Cup upsets keep coming, and the "dumb money" in prediction markets is pure comedy gold
- Core Thesis: Through multiple upset cases in World Cup prediction markets, the article reveals the high degree of uncertainty in matches between strong and weak teams. It points out that adjusting the strategy of "dumb money" or "reverse indicator addresses" (from betting on underdog upsets to backing strong teams to win) could yield profits, but the overall market remains highly random, and past experience cannot be easily replicated.
- Key Elements:
- Spain held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde: Whale @betoor619 placed a $1 million bet on Spain to win, expecting an $85,000 profit, but ended up with a total loss due to seven saves by goalkeeper Vozinha. The draw upset kicked off this World Cup.
- Portugal held to a 1-1 draw by DR Congo: Cristiano Ronaldo had zero shots on target, with DR Congo equalizing through a defensive counterattack. In the prediction market, a "smart money" address spent over $243,000 on a Portugal win, only to incur losses.
- Cape Verde draws with Saudi Arabia once again: The "reverse indicator address" @Zzzz87, which bet on Cape Verde to win based on their previous performance, lost $80,000. This address had already accumulated losses of $620,000, with a win rate below 40%.
- "Reverse indicator" strategy shifts to profitability: In the knockout stages, @Zzzz87 switched to betting on strong teams to win, earning approximately $269,000 in the past week, covering nearly $255,000 in losses from the previous month. However, their subsequent bets remain uncertain.
- Core Conclusion: Football prediction results cannot be easily replicated (e.g., Cape Verde), and whether following smart money or reverse indicators, dynamic adjustments are necessary. The only certainty in the market is that outcomes are unpredictable.
Original Article by Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Wenser (@wenser2010 )
The World Cup: 20 days in.
Prediction market trading volumes have climbed steadily, with massive gains and losses unfolding in turns. Previously, Odaily highlighted cases of “huge wins & brutal losses” from the World Cup's opening matches, and also detailed how to build strategies and tools to follow smart money.
Today, aside from poking fun at "so-called smart money," we want to discuss whether classic losing trades can serve as a contrarian indicator.
Spain vs. Cape Verde Ends in a Draw: Goalkeeper Makes 7 Stunning Saves, Whale Loses $1M Trying to Win $85,000
Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, was panting, his body slightly hunched as he stared at the opponents on the pitch, ready to spring into action to parry any incoming shot.
For this goalkeeper, valued at just €50,000, few were optimistic about him or his island nation team before the match. After all, their opponents were the World Cup giants—Spain. Just their star player, Lamine Yamal, is valued at €200 million, the highest in the tournament and 4,000 times Vozinha's valuation. The total squad value of the Spanish team exceeds €1.2 billion, making them one of the pre-tournament favorites. La Liga boasts countless star players from clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid.
But football is not merely a game of comparing player values; it's a live athletic contest.
For the Cape Verde national team players, just standing on the World Cup stage, enjoying the fun of football and the adrenaline rush of competition, was already enough. (Note from Odaily: As commentator Guan Zeyuan shared, Cape Verde, an Atlantic island nation covering about 4,000 square kilometers, holds football matches between its islands to determine the winning team, ultimately selecting players for the World Cup squad—somewhat akin to local tournaments like China's "Village BA" or "Jiangsu Super League.")
During the match, Spain fired 27 shots, with 7 on target. But in the end, Vozinha and his teammates successfully neutralized every attack. As the referee's final whistle blew, Spain vs. Cape Verde ended in a 0-0 draw. This shocking result caused many prediction market players to lose everything.
Before the match, @betoor619 invested $1 million at $0.92 to bet on "Spain to beat Cape Verde." To many, this seemed like a "risk-free arbitrage play" in the prediction market. Some even expected the match to be a "one-sided slaughter ending with a high score."
But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, refused to accept that outcome. They executed their defensive, counter-attacking strategy with discipline, tight marking, and aggressive tackling.
In the end, @betoor619 did not earn the anticipated $85,000 from this "sure thing." Instead, he lost his entire $1 million principal.
This match may have set the tone for the tournament's frequent upsets and strong teams being held to draws by underdogs. Subsequent group stage matches saw several title contenders held to draws by lesser-known or weaker nations, making "betting on a draw" the best strategy in the prediction market.
Recommended reading: "Whether You Know Football or Not, Betting on a Draw is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?".
Portugal vs. DR Congo Ends in a Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo's Glory Fades, "Smart Money" Loses Over $240,000 in Costly Lesson
On June 18, in Group K of the World Cup group stage, the highly anticipated strong team Portugal faced DR Congo, making their World Cup debut.
According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, Portugal's men's team was ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands, possessing relatively strong overall strength. The presence of Cristiano Ronaldo—a player with "5 Champions League titles, 5 Ballon d'Or awards, 6 World Cup appearances, and the title of all-time top scorer"—boosted fan confidence in Portugal's performance. Many hoped Ronaldo would score in this match, becoming "the first player to score in six consecutive World Cups," edging out Messi.
On the other hand, DR Congo was ranked only 45th in the world by FIFA. This tournament marked their return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.
In terms of player valuation, Portugal's total squad value exceeded €1 billion, including two "century-million-euro players" and eight top-tier players valued over €40 million. DR Congo's total squad value was around €150 million, just one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo stated they hoped to "rewrite history, at least advance to the knockout stages, and reach the round of 16."
Back to the game, Ronaldo started for Portugal, but ultimately recorded 0 shots on target from 3 attempts. Portugal managed only 1 shot on target from 7 attempts, showing a clear lack of offensive firepower.
Although 19-year-old João Neves scored a lightning-fast goal for Portugal within 7 minutes, DR Congo equalized deep into first-half stoppage time—a period when Portugal was most prone to complacency and lapses in concentration.
Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's defense and counter-attacks were exceptionally well-executed, with tight man-marking. Additionally, three central defenders averaging over 185 cm in height further limited Ronaldo's effectiveness, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, ultimately preventing them from securing an opening win.
In the prediction market, a "smart money" address with a 49% win rate before the match spent over $243,000 predicting "Portugal to beat DR Congo" at an average entry price of $0.76, ultimately ending in a loss.
In today's knockout match between England and DR Congo, DR Congo initially scored first with their counter-attacking strategy. England narrowly won 2-1 thanks to a Harry Kane brace, narrowly avoiding being the second strong team to be held or beaten by an underdog.
Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde Ends in a Draw: "Dumb Money" Bets on Cape Verde Win, Loses $80,000
In World Cup prediction betting, every time you try to apply lessons from the previous match, the outcome flips.
In the earlier group stage, Cape Verde overcame opponents thanks to goalkeeper Vozinha and the team's strict implementation of a counter-attacking strategy. They later held Uruguay to another draw.
Given this, the "smart money" in the prediction market boldly predicted a Cape Verde victory before their match against Saudi Arabia.
However, Cape Verde once again relied on their resilient defensive style and unified team execution to secure a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia.
According to monitoring from the PPP prediction market tool, the top contrarian indicator address of the World Cup, @Zzzz87, made yet another wrong prediction, betting on Cape Verde to beat Saudi Arabia and losing another $80,000. Since the start of the World Cup, this address had already lost $620,000, with its win rate dropping to below 40%, typically performing worse with larger bet sizes.
Over the past week, @Zzzz87 appears to have learned from its losses, changing its strategy to bet on strong teams to win outright, instead of stubbornly backing underdog upsets. Indeed, as the knockout stage began, strong teams being overturned became less frequent. @Zzzz87's "bet on the favorite" strategy quickly proved effective, with profit margins ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.
Therefore, although this address suffered losses of approximately $255,000 over the past month, its profits over the last week have reached around $269,000.
Currently, this address holds positions in multiple prediction events, including "Switzerland vs. Algeria," "Spain vs. Austria," "Portugal vs. Croatia," and "Argentina vs. Cape Verde," with buy-in amounts ranging from a few thousand dollars to $36,000. The results will be known tomorrow.
The Ball is Round: Anything is Possible
Looking at these cases, will the former "dumb contrarian indicator" transform into "smart money" after learning its lesson, or will the "top contrarian curse" strike again?
It's hard to say definitively. Some people delete their accounts and run, refusing to be observed through the lens of "survivorship bias." Others have both wins and losses, or use multiple accounts to hedge.
Whether you're playing the matches or betting on them, the only certainty is "uncertainty."
The World Cup outcome is not a simple comparison of squad values, nor a contest of national strength or training systems, nor can it be swayed by the will or wallet of outside participants. Whether you follow the smart money or fade the dumb money, you need to watch the games, enjoy them, and adapt your strategy flexibly.
