Unveiling the "Investment Research God" Behind Citrini: Perennially Ranked #1 on Substack, One Report Wiped Out Hundreds of Billions in U.S. Stock Market Value

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

In this bull market of US stocks, besides the "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity, who is active in the public sphere as an individual, another independent research institution named Citrini has also attracted widespread attention—consistently ranking first in Substack's finance category, with nearly 250,000 subscribers.

In February this year, Citrini's report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" once triggered a "sell-off wave in US software stocks," exacerbating the panic psychology surrounding the Silicon Valley unemployment wave; in April, Citrini analyst Analyst#3's on-site "Strait of Hormuz Research Report" sparked strong reactions from the outside world, using first-hand experience to peel back the layers of mystery shrouding this conflict-ridden chokepoint. Recently, Citrini's semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately predicted the importance of the copper foil industry in the AI and semiconductor sectors, driving a new wave of investment热潮.

Behind this research institution stands a founder without a formal financial background: James van Geelen. Holding a double degree in Biology and Psychology from UCLA, he has worked as an emergency medical technician and founded a medical company before transitioning into the investment world midway. Now, he is hailed as the "God of Investment Research." In this edition, Odaily Planet Daily will unveil James's cross-border legend.

Citrini Founder: The Narrative Master of "Second-Order Thinking"

When it comes to Citrini, the crypto circle first noticed this research account perhaps in May this year, just before Cerebras (CBRS) went public, when he posted about "fund managers conducting early price discovery on Trade.xyz (within the Hyperliquid ecosystem)." The tweet was subsequently forwarded and confirmed by Trade.xyz founder Shokun.

Citrini: The "Traditional Finance Watchdog" for Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz

It's no exaggeration to say that as a research account that once published the viral piece "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", Citrini's radiating influence on the traditional financial world is evident.

Its strong endorsement of the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz's pre-market pricing of US stocks has also brought RWA platforms, US stock pre-market contract platforms, and on-chain US stock trading platforms in the crypto market into the spotlight for many, fueling this year's "RWA asset boom in US stocks" to a certain extent.

In a sense, Citrini serves as a bellwether, sending a "warning signal" to the traditional financial circle—it uses accurate information to alert traditional financial markets that previously overlooked crypto players are now eyeing the "big cake" of traditional financial markets like barbarians.

Behind Citrini is a founder who believes in "second-order thinking" and "long-termism"—James van Geelen.

Multi-faceted Labels: Double Degree in Biology and Psychology, Medical Emergency Practitioner, "AI Panic Whistleblower"

At 33, James van Geelen (hereafter Geelen) probably never imagined that a "popular AI discussion post" could trigger the rapid evaporation of hundreds of billions of dollars in US stock market value; earlier, his career trajectory had nothing to do with AI.

Public information shows Geelen graduated from the prestigious UCLA, earning dual degrees in Biology and Psychology. He also worked as an emergency medical technician and paramedic in downtown Los Angeles. This combination of an elite education and medical emergency work forged his character, which pursues efficiency and excels at planning. As he himself said, "If you don't have a plan, you're going to have a bad time." Additionally, he considers himself a "musical genius," although he has no notable works to show for it.

According to Geelen's original plan, he was supposed to become a doctor saving lives. But by a twist of fate, he instead embarked on an entrepreneurial path: first founding a healthcare company, which he sold to a private equity fund, thus successfully breaking free from the "elite school – employee – professional manager" cycle; subsequently, he founded the current Citrini.

Another noteworthy point, as he personally mentioned in the 2023 Odd Lots podcast, is that he also co-founded one of Connecticut's earliest medical cannabis dispensaries. From this perspective, he is far from the stereotypical, regimented, or even stubborn "straight-laced doctor" in people's eyes.

In 2018, with a certain amount of startup capital, Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital, capturing early opportunities in AI (like Nvidia) and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like Ozempic/Wegovy).

In 2023, Geelen formally founded Citrini Research, dedicated to "cross-asset, multi-dimensional thinking for investment analysis," providing in-depth reports on thematic equity investments and global macro trading. It quickly grew into a top creator in the finance category on Substack. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: It operates both individual subscription and institutional subscription models.)

On May 31, 2023, the model portfolio Citrindex, built on personal research, was officially launched with an annual subscription fee of $1,250. According to statistics, the portfolio's cumulative return exceeds 200%, with multiple monthly gains outperforming the S&P 500.

In March 2024, he boldly predicted Trump would win the election; in July 2025, amidst the turmoil surrounding former Fed Chair Powell's departure, he boldly advised over 50,000 subscribers to "buy 2-year Treasury bonds and short 10-year Treasury bonds" to hedge against policy risks.

In December 2025, according to PitchBook information, Citrini completed a seed round of approximately $5.05 million. With only about 10 employees, the company remains privately held.

Then, fast forward to February this year. He co-authored with Alap Shah, who comes from a traditional finance background, the report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" that shook the US stock market. Although he repeatedly emphasized the report was merely a "thought experiment" and scenario hypothesis rather than predictive analysis, the phenomena it mentioned—"massive white-collar unemployment, declining consumer spending, economic contraction (Ghost GDP)"—still triggered panic and concern in the capital markets, causing a sharp drop in distribution, payment, and software stocks. Notably, IBM's stock price on February 23 saw its largest single-day drop since 2025; American Express and Blackstone both fell over 8%; the entire software stock sector dropped nearly 5%; companies like DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One, and Apollo Global Management Inc. saw their stock prices fall as much as 3%; multiple US stock sectors were swept up in the sell-off, with the Dow falling over 800 points at one point. Alap Shah subsequently publicly stated their investment stance as "bearish on shorts, bullish on longs," meaning they short companies they believe will be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor tech stocks that benefit from AI.

It's no exaggeration to say that Citrini's report caused US stocks to lose hundreds of billions in market value. The single report literally left the US stock market "bloody," with hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization evaporating overnight, sparking follow-up coverage from Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and other international media.

On April 6 this year, Citrini team's "Analyst #3" personally traveled to the Strait of Hormuz—a key chokepoint in the US-Iran conflict—for research, disclosing many little-known first-hand observations. The investigation unveiled the specific operational model of Iran's "toll station" in the strait and presented a series of counter-intuitive conclusions, such as: Regardless of how the situation develops, shipping traffic through the strait will gradually increase; Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. First, shipping traffic through the strait will continue to increase. Second, the diplomatic-style "toll station"; surprisingly, the transit order in the strait is actually very standardized. Third, the contradictory nature of escalation; even if ground operations commence, shipping traffic through the strait could still increase. Fourth, geopolitical restructuring, not a battle for victory. This conflict is not a simple "two-sided confrontation" but a multi-party game. Geographical disputes within great power games are also a key research subject "within range" for Citrini.

When asked why the company was named "citrinitas," Geelen replied: "The inspiration for the name comes from financial tycoon Soros's 'The Alchemy of Finance.' It is actually a stage in alchemy, but what most people don't know is that during this transitional phase, lead begins its transformation into gold but hasn't completely become gold yet." This is also his favorite moment of "making a difference"—seeing the birth of "gold" before others notice the change in the lead.

Investment Style: Second-Order Thinking, Narrative-Driven, Counterfactual Scenarios

As for Citrini's investment style, thanks to its founder's cross-border experience and diverse labels, it strongly advocates "second-order thinking."

As Geelen himself puts it: "Most investors focus only on the ball itself, but I focus more on where the ball will bounce next."

Based on Citrini's past content and public information, this research institution focuses on long-term "super trends," such as AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics, and modern warfare. Additionally, it aims to provide actionable "basket investment references" and tactical macro trading ideas, with its judgment偏向 long-term structural changes rather than short-term trades. In its Substack homepage profile, we can see its emphasis on practice, stating: "You (the reader) will no longer need to ask 'what is the trade.'"

Furthermore, Citrini often uses "scenario hypotheses" to help readers understand second/third-order effects. Geelen once mentioned: "Don't always think about what you think will happen. Instead, think about the things that are inevitable. How will the market's reaction change the reality? What will be the secondary effects? What are the obstacles to a certain trend continuing? Where will the money flow to overcome these obstacles?" Previously, in March 2023, during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, he boldly bought call options on overnight financing rates, easily reaping nearly 50x returns. Last December, before the US launched a military operation in Venezuela, he shared his views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds.

Since the beginning of this year, Citrini has successively brought in several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, South Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05, and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9, among others, filling gaps in industry details, technical processes, and trends of change to a certain extent.Currently, this research institution still maintains a production model driven by the founder, supplemented by collaboration with an anonymous elite team.