The Big Short's Burry: First short on Caterpillar $CAT, further shorting AI and semiconductors
- Core Thesis: Michael Burry, the fund manager known for shorting subprime mortgages, disclosed multiple concentrated short positions on core AI infrastructure stocks on June 30, 2026, including Caterpillar, Nvidia, and semiconductor ETFs. His core logic is that the valuations of these related targets have reached extreme highs, and a correction is only a matter of time.
- Key Elements:
- First-ever short on Caterpillar ($CAT) at an entry price of $1,060.98, citing its role as an "AI infrastructure proxy stock" that surged 86% in the first half of the year, with a price-to-sales ratio at a 30-year high and a P/E ratio of approximately 53x.
- Opened new short positions on the same day for Nvidia (entry price $198.09), Applied Materials ($729.40), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, $642.80).
- The core argument is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is over 65% above its 200-day moving average, with a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 16x—a level of extension only seen during the internet bubble.
- Shorted Tesla at $416.22, though the size of the position was not disclosed; Burry has previously criticized its "absurdly overvalued" valuation and equity dilution issues.
- This "end-of-quarter liquidation-style shorting" continues his consistent bearish stance, following large short positions on Palantir and Nvidia, and warnings that the financial risks of AI expansion resemble the 1999-2000 bubble.
Original Author: Claude, ShenChao TechFlow
ShenChao Introduction: Michael Burry, the inspiration for "The Big Short," has disclosed his latest short portfolio, including his first-ever short on Caterpillar ($CAT), the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year (up 86% in the first half of the year), with an entry price of $1,060.98. On the same day, he also initiated new short positions in Nvidia, Applied Materials, Tesla, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). These targets are almost all core beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure bull run. Burry's judgment: valuations have reached extremes he hasn't seen in 30 years, and "it's just a matter of time."
Hedge fund manager Michael Burry, famed for his accurate bet on the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, published a post on his paid Substack column "Cassandra Unchained" on June 30, disclosing a batch of new short positions targeting the AI and semiconductor sectors. The article, titled "Trading Post June 30, 2026," has a core logic summed up in one sentence: the current AI rally has climbed to a dangerous level.
According to a CNBC report, Burry wrote: "This is my first time shorting Caterpillar. In the past, going long on this stock has served me well." This statement highlights the most unusual position in the current portfolio: Caterpillar is not an AI company; it manufactures construction machinery, mining, and energy equipment.
First Short on Caterpillar at $1,060.98, Deemed an 'AI Infrastructure Proxy'
Burry shorted Caterpillar at a price of $1,060.98. What caught his attention was the valuation: with the stock price hitting an all-time high, Caterpillar's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has climbed to its highest level in at least the past 30 years. According to GuruFocus data, its price-to-earnings ratio is around 53x.
Caterpillar itself is irrelevant to AI, but the market has treated it as a 'pick-and-shovel' stock for global AI infrastructure investment. Data center construction requires power generation, transmission, and civil engineering, channeling increasing funds into this heavy equipment giant. As a result, Caterpillar rose 86% in the first half of 2026, becoming one of the best-performing constituents in the S&P 500 this year.
Burry offered his own interpretation of the direct trigger for the day's rally. According to a TipRanks report, he wrote: "The direct trigger for today's rally was the massive spending plan announced by South Korea. In my view, this is precisely the beginning of the end for this trend. It's now just a matter of time."
Added Shorts in Nvidia, Applied Materials, SOXX in One Day, All with Entry Prices Listed
Caterpillar is not an isolated case. According to Electrek and Investing.com reports, the short entry prices Burry disclosed for the same day (June 30) were: Nvidia at $198.09, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) at $642.80, and Applied Materials at $729.40.
The main focus of the column wasn't Caterpillar, but semiconductors. Burry's argument hinges on extreme valuations: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is currently over 65% above its 200-day moving average. This level of extension has only occurred once before in history – at the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble. He also points out that the index's P/S ratio exceeds 16x, a figure that remains "virtually unchanged" even excluding Nvidia.
In terms of specific operations, he rolled his put options on SOXX from January 2027 to March 2027, shifting the strike price to just over $400, while continuing to hold January puts on the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ). Regarding a potential semiconductor decline, he wrote: "It's just a matter of time now."
Shorted Tesla at $416.22, But Position Size Not Disclosed
Burry's handling of Tesla differs from the previous positions. According to a Yahoo Finance report, he wrote: "Finally, I shorted Tesla at $416.22. Glad it has rallied back to this level." Tesla closed the previous trading day at $379.71 and surged approximately 10% intraday on Tuesday, indicating Burry shorted the stock on strength rather than chasing a decline.
Importantly, he did not disclose any size information for the Tesla short – no share count, no dollar amount, and no indication of whether options were used. This point requires careful interpretation. Burry's past Tesla shorts have often been exaggerated by the media: In Q1 2021, Scion's 13F filing showed it held put options corresponding to 800,100 shares of Tesla, widely reported as a "$534 million" short. However, that was merely the notional value of the options (the market value of the shares based on the closing price), not the actual capital he deployed (the option premium, which was much smaller). He had already closed that position by November 2021.
Tesla still fits Burry's overall bearish thesis. He criticized Tesla's "absurd" share dilution and "absurdly high" valuation last December, linking it to the shareholder-approved trillion-dollar compensation package for Elon Musk. In April, after analyzing audit reports of several tech companies over the past decade, he labeled Tesla the "king of the tragedy layer" – referring to companies where stock-based compensation simultaneously exceeds both GAAP-based compensation expenses and cumulative net income.
A 'Clear-Out-Style Short' at End of Quarter, But Without 13F Backing
According to an Investing.com report, this batch of positions reads more like a concentrated, end-of-quarter sweep against 'overextended' assets rather than a standalone judgment on any single stock. Burry has already turned decisively bearish: In Q3 2025, Scion held put options on 5 million shares of Palantir (notional value ~$912 million) and 1 million shares of Nvidia (~$187 million), with combined exposure from these two positions alone totaling approximately $1.1 billion. He has repeatedly called out the aggressive data center expansion by Oracle, Google, and Microsoft, warning the market is overlooking the financial risks of heavy capital consumption amidst AI optimism, and has consistently drawn parallels between the current rally and the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble.
Readers should be reminded: As of this writing, there are no confirmed 13F filings disclosing the Caterpillar short. All current information comes from Burry's personal column and social media, not regulatory filings. The exact size and structure of the positions will require hard data from Scion's next 13F filing.
