Gate Institutional Weekly: DVOL Rebounds from Lows, Crypto ETF Funds Continue to Flow Out

Summary

• Last week, global markets traded around the Fed's hawkish signals. Cooling rate-cut expectations boosted US bond yields and the dollar, pressuring risk assets. The crypto market followed suit with a pullback, with BTC and ETH both falling over 4%.

• Overall ETF outflows continued. Gate TradFi Perp trading remained active, with expanding coverage of US stock assets. Short-term order book liquidity for XAUT weakened. The market remains in a cautious game phase under macro uncertainty.

• On-chain transaction activity saw a moderate overall recovery, but without forming a complete volume-driven rally. DEX volumes showed divergence, with Uniswap slightly overtaking PancakeSwap, and the Solana ecosystem seeing a rebound in trading. Stablecoin supply showed no clear new US dollar inflows; capital movement remained primarily rotational among existing holdings, while mid-tier stablecoins demonstrated some resilience.

• The DeFi market entered a phase of structural repair. Improvements were seen in LSTs, Aave lending, and protocol revenues, but were primarily driven by asset price recovery and core liquidity market repair. Capital showed a preference for mature collateral, stable yields, and trading-centric protocols, with stablecoin issuance remaining a core revenue source for the industry.

• The BTC derivatives market continued its deleveraging process. OI declined rapidly while the funding rate remained positive, indicating cooling long sentiment but not yet turning bearish. At the same time, options volume cooled, Skew weakened, and DVOL rebounded, reflecting a rise in short-term defensive demand and renewed volatility expectations.

1. Market Focus Analysis

Last week (June 15-21, 2026), the core event in the global macro market was the Fed's June FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference as new chair, made statements interpreted by the market as hawkish. The federal funds rate target range was kept unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the latest dot plot completely removed any rate cut expectations for 2026. Nine out of 18 officials even included at least one rate hike this year. Warsh also stated that forward guidance was no longer suitable for the current policy environment. Consequently, US bond yields rose rapidly, with the 2-year yield hitting a new high in over a year. Equities experienced significant volatility on the Fed day—although on a weekly closing basis, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.43%, the S&P 500 rose 0.93%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.21%, the intraday sell-off on Wednesday, the day of the Fed press conference, was described by media as the "worst Fed day since the new chair took office." The US dollar index strengthened on hawkish expectations, putting pressure on commodities; gold prices oscillated amid a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strong dollar, while oil prices edged lower due to demand concerns. On the economic data front, the market is closely watching inflation and employment data evolution for clues on whether the Fed will truly pivot to rate hikes this year. As no major non-farm payrolls or CPI data were released that week, market sentiment was driven by expectations. Geopolitically, the situation in the Middle East, along with ongoing US domestic tax reform and debt ceiling negotiations, continued to unnerve the market, leading to cautious overall risk appetite.

In the crypto market, liquidity tightening concerns triggered by the hawkish Fed outlook had a clear impact on digital assets. BTC fell about 4% for the week, dropping from a weekly high of $67,300 on Monday to a low near $62,300 around Thursday, before slightly recovering to close the weekend around $63,300. ETH fell deeper than BTC, dropping about 5% for the week. It touched a high near $1,850 on Monday before retreating with the broader market, closing Sunday around $1,700. Altcoins generally followed the major coins lower, coming under broad pressure from liquidity tightening. The total global crypto market cap oscillated in the $2.2 trillion to $2.29 trillion range. The Fear & Greed Index moved further into fear territory after the Fed meeting, indicating cautious market sentiment.

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 Overall Trend of Continued Outflows from Crypto ETFs Has Not Reversed Yet

Last week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a slight net inflow overall. However, the cumulative net outflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in June still stands at a high of around $2.1 billion, indicating that the broad trend of sustained capital outflows this month has not fundamentally reversed yet.

Looking at major products, BlackRock's IBIT continued to lead, with a single-day net inflow of approximately $16.4 million on Tuesday, showcasing its top-tier capital attraction ability. The combined AUM of all US Bitcoin spot ETFs is around $82.5 billion, holding about 1.284 million BTC. IBIT remained the dominant player with an AUM of about $66 billion, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at around $14 billion. Additionally, BlackRock officially listed a new product on Nasdaq on June 16—the iShares Premium Income Bitcoin ETF (BITA). This product features monthly cash dividends, targeting an annualized return of 15%–25%, aimed at income-focused institutional investors, adding a new category to the Bitcoin ETF product matrix.

Liquidity performance for Ethereum spot ETFs showed some divergence last week, with some products showing signs of recovery. On June 16, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of about $9.6 million, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows, a signal of recent phased improvement. BlackRock's ETHA continued to be the main capital attractor, with net inflows of about $17.3 million that day, single-handedly supporting the overall positive flow. Meanwhile, Bitwise ETHW saw net outflows of about $3.5 million, Fidelity FETH about $2.2 million, and Grayscale Mini ETH about $2.0 million, continuing the trend of capital concentration towards top-tier products.

Overall, institutional allocation willingness via ETF channels still exists, but under the headwind of adverse macro interest rate expectations, the pace of short-term incremental capital entry has slowed significantly. The market is waiting for the Fed's policy path to become clearer.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

• TradFi Perp DEX: Over the past week, the trading structure of TradFi Perp DEXs changed noticeably. The share of commodity markets continued to decline, while the shares of stock and index/ETF trading increased significantly. Since mid-May, the commodity sector's share has gradually fallen from a high near 70% to around 25%–35%. Meanwhile, the stock sector's share quickly rebounded to about 30%, and the index/ETF share rose to about 35%–40%, becoming the primary source of incremental volume recently. This change is closely linked to the recent market environment. On one hand, safe-haven trades triggered by the Middle East situation pushed commodities like gold to highs before entering a consolidation phase, marginally cooling related trading activity. On the other hand, the SpaceX IPO and sustained activity in tech sectors like AI and chips attracted capital back to US stocks and related index products. For TradFi Perp platforms, user demand is expanding from simple gold trading to a wider range of asset classes like stocks, ETFs, and Pre-IPOs.

• Gate TradFi Perp Trading Volume: Last week, Gate TradFi Perp trading volume remained at a relatively high level overall. Daily trading volume mainly fluctuated in the $300 million to $800 million range, showing less volatility compared to earlier periods but maintaining stable activity. There were several instances of rapid volume expansion during the week, with the peak approaching $800 million, indicating robust demand for leveraged trading during periods of significant macro events and asset price volatility. By asset class, metals continued to dominate. Stock class assets saw notable volume increases on certain days, with the blue areas often coinciding with overall volume increases, suggesting growing user participation in US stock-related perpetual contracts. Overall, Gate TradFi Perp volume remained stable last week, primarily driven by precious metal perpetuals, alongside increasing participation in stock-class assets.

• Gate TradFi US Stock Asset Count: Gate officially launched its US stock trading service on June 2. Leveraging advantages such as genuine underlying asset backing, direct USDT trading capability, no overnight holding fees, and high liquidity, the service has continued to attract market attention since its launch, with trading volume growing steadily. Currently, Gate supports 7 major asset classes: ADRC, Stocks, ETFs, ETNs, ETSs, ETVs, and PFDs, and is continuously expanding product coverage. In terms of asset count, the total number of tradable instruments has doubled since launch. Among these, the stock category has seen the most significant growth, with its share of total assets rising from about 70% at launch to 85%, further enriching users' investment choices. Going forward, Gate will continue to promote access to more markets, global liquidity integration, and cross-market trading capabilities, constantly expanding diversified asset coverage and further strengthening its strategic positioning as a global asset trading and market access platform.

• TradFi Order Book Depth: We selected XAUT, the highest volume TradFi instrument, to analyze its order book depth (Delta). Over the past week, XAUT order book liquidity showed clear divergence. In the first half of the week, buyer liquidity was dominant multiple times, with Delta turning significantly positive, reaching a high near $2.5 million, pushing XAUT prices from the $4,050 region up to around $4,300, indicating strong market absorption. However, after June 18, as prices peaked and fell, seller liquidity gradually strengthened, with Delta turning persistently negative, suggesting increased overhead supply pressure. Since June 22, the negative Delta has widened significantly, with short-term aggressive sell orders being dominant, pulling XAUT prices back to around $4,120. Overall, the gold token still has buyer support, but the short-term liquidity structure is leaning towards defense, as the market awaits further clarity on macro uncertainties.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 DEX Volumes Did Not Expand in Tandem; Uniswap Slightly Overtakes PancakeSwap

DEX volumes showed divergence last week. The market rebound did not translate into a broad volume expansion. Uniswap recorded weekly volume of about $14.11 billion, slightly overtaking PancakeSwap's $13.98 billion. PancakeSwap declined compared to the previous week, while Uniswap continued its recovery. Aerodrome and Curve cooled down from their prior week's highs, indicating that swapping demand on Ethereum and Base did not continue its expansion. The Solana side performed stronger, with Raydium and Meteora volumes rebounding, while Whirlpool was roughly flat. PumpSwap's volume rose to about $458 million, with the number of traders remaining above 1.26 million, but the number of transactions was slightly lower than the previous week, suggesting the recent growth stemmed more from an increase in average trade size rather than pure retail high-frequency expansion.

3.2 Stablecoin Supply Diverges; Mid-Tier Asset Performance Better Reflects On-Chain Dollar Structure Changes

Last week, the stablecoin market showed clear divergence, with data for top assets like USDT and USDC declining. Notably, DAI remained stable at around $4.96 billion, PYUSD edged up to about $2.09 billion, and GHO held steady at approximately $600 million, indicating that some mid-tier stablecoins remain resilient. USDe and USDS also saw declines, suggesting a slowdown in the expansion pace of yield-bearing and protocol-based stablecoins. Overall, the stablecoin market did not provide a clear signal of new US dollar inflows last week. On-chain capital continued to primarily rotate within existing holdings, with institutional allocation favoring assets with proven liquidity, reserve transparency, and cross-chain usability.

3.3 LST Valuation Recovery Spreads; SOL and HYPE Sides Show Greater Elasticity

Last week, the LST sector recovered overall, with mainstream ETH staking protocols continuing their moderate repair. Lido's TVL rose to approximately $15.71 billion, while Rocket Pool and StakeWise both recorded growth of around 3% to 5%, suggesting the staking capital environment for ETH has not deteriorated further. The SOL side showed greater elasticity, with Jito and Jupiter Staked SOL both seeing clear recoveries, and Sanctum Validator LSTs also continuing to expand. Kinetiq kHYPE performed most prominently, with TVL growing about 15% week-over-week. However, as TVL is USD-denominated, last week's gains are likely largely attributable to price recoveries in ETH, SOL, and HYPE, rather than being directly equivalent to net inflows of staked tokens. The current situation more closely resembles valuation recovery and position covering.

3.4 Aave Lending Volume Recovers Moderately; Ethereum Provides Base Support but Multi-Chain Markets No Longer Weakening Unilaterally

Aave's lending balances continued to recover last week. The Ethereum market remained the core support, with borrowing volume rising to about $7.48 billion, up approximately 2% week-over-week. Multi-chain markets are no longer weakening unilaterally. Plasma, Mantle, Avalanche, and Ink all saw relatively significant recoveries, while Arbitrum and Base also improved slightly; MegaETH and BNB Chain, however, declined. Capital is preferentially returning to markets with deeper collateral, more mature liquidation liquidity, and well-defined risk parameters, but borrowing demand on some emerging chains has already started to recover. Overall, Aave has moved from a post-incident defensive phase into a selective recovery phase, though expansion remains concentrated in markets with more reliable liquidity.

3.5 Aave Lending Rates Stabilize at Low Levels; USDC Tail Risk Further Reduced

Last week, borrowing rates for major assets on Aave remained stable at low levels. The average USDC borrowing rate was about 4.02%, roughly flat week-over-week, but the intra-week peak rate fell from around 10.84% to 9.36%, indicating that short-term capital tightness from extreme utilization continues to ease. The average USDT rate dipped slightly to about 3.24%, while the average WETH rate edged up to approximately 2.16%, still in a low range. The recovery in lending balances has not triggered a rapid increase in funding costs, suggesting leverage demand remains restrained. The current rate environment is suitable for capital rotation, carry trades, and market-neutral strategies, but has yet to show signs of borrowers competing aggressively for liquidity.

3.6 Protocol Revenues Decline but Structure Unchanged; Stablecoin Issuance Remains the Revenue Base

Overall protocol revenues were weak last week. Tether's revenue fell to approximately $96.76 million, down about 15.5% from the previous week, but still significantly ahead of other protocols. Circle's revenue was around $45.19 million, remaining relatively stable. Hyperliquid's revenue stood at about $11.57 million, slightly down from the prior week, remaining a core revenue source among on-chain trading protocols. Revenues for Pump, Tron, Titan Builder, and Base declined, while Axiom Pro, Jupiter, Aerodrome, and Aave bucked the trend with improvements. The revenue structure has not fundamentally changed: stablecoin issuance continues to provide the industry's revenue base, derivatives and trading applications contribute cyclical elasticity, and lending protocols maintain stable but limited revenue recovery in the low-rate environment.

4. Derivatives Tracking

4.1 BTC Funding Rate Remains Positive but OI Declines Rapidly; Leveraged Positions Continue to Be Wiped Out

Last week, BTC prices oscillated at low levels overall. Early in the week, prices traded around $65,000 to $66,000, then fell to the $62,000-$63,000 range around June 17. Although there was some phased recovery later, prices remained around $64,000 by the weekend, failing to reclaim the $66,000 level.

On the OI front, there was a significant decline last week. OI was still above $23 billion around June 15 but then rapidly fell to around $21