Whether or not you understand the game, betting on a draw might be the best strategy for this World Cup?
- Key Insight: During the World Cup group stage, executing a "bet on a draw every match" strategy based on Polymarket prediction data resulted in a return rate as high as 105%. This indicates that the high odds payouts from low-probability draws far outweigh the cumulative losses from frequently betting on strong teams to win.
- Key Factors:
- Up to the 40th group stage match, 13 draws have occurred. A total investment of $40,000 would have netted approximately $41,914, a return rate of nearly 105%, demonstrating the profit potential of the draw strategy.
- The key to the draw strategy lies in the "payout value": when a low-probability draw (e.g., Spain vs. Cape Verde with only a 5.5% draw probability) hits, the settlement multiplier can be as high as 18x, meaning one successful bet can cover multiple losses.
- Typical upset case: User @betoor619 placed a bet on Spain to win (at $0.92 per share) in the Spain vs. Cape Verde match. Due to the 0-0 draw, they lost $999,000, highlighting the trap of betting on hot favorites.
- Draws are concentrated in scores of 1-1 (e.g., Canada vs. Bosnia, Brazil vs. Morocco – 7 matches in total) and 0-0 (e.g., Spain vs. Cape Verde, Ecuador vs. Curacao). 0-0 draws offer higher settlement returns, for instance, a $1,000 bet on the Spain match would have returned approximately $18,182.
- In Group G, 3 out of 4 matches were draws (Belgium 1-1 Egypt, Iran 2-2 New Zealand, Belgium 0-0 Iran). This shows that draws are a common dynamic in group stage contests, driven by conservative strategies from weaker teams and cautious approaches from stronger ones.
Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)
As the World Cup group stage progresses, a counterintuitive trend is becoming increasingly apparent: Betting on strong teams doesn't guarantee profits, and chasing upsets is hard to stick with. However, blindly betting on a draw in every match might actually yield substantial gains.
According to Polymarket's pre-match prediction data, if $1,000 were wagered on a draw for every match, there would have been 11 draws in the first 36 games (as shown below). This means a total investment of $36,000, a settlement payout of $73,214, and a net profit of $37,214 after deducting the principal, representing a return rate exceeding 100%.
Even more striking, based on Polymarket's pre-match data, if the same strategy of "betting $1,000 on a draw per match" was applied to today's four games (totaling $4,000), the results would be: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia and New Zealand 1-3 Egypt saw those two bets voided; but Belgium 0-0 Iran and Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde hit, with a combined settlement of approximately $8,700. This means that even with only two correct predictions out of four, the day's net profit would still be around $4,700.
Including today's four matches, across the 40 World Cup group stage games, there have been 13 draws. The total investment of $40,000 yielded a cumulative settlement of approximately $81,914 for the correct picks. After deducting all investment, the net profit is around $41,914, with a return rate approaching 105%.
A 13/40 hit rate is not particularly high, but the key to the draw strategy has never been about "hitting many," but rather "hitting value." The lower the pre-match probability of a draw, the higher the settlement multiplier upon a correct pick. Games like Spain vs. Cape Verde (draw probability 5.5%), Ecuador vs. Curaçao (draw probability 8%), and Qatar vs. Switzerland (draw probability 13%) demonstrate that just a few correct picks can completely swing the entire strategy from a small loss to a massive profit.
Cape Verde's Stalemate with Spain: The World Cup's Most Typical 'Blowout' Game So Far
The Spain vs. Cape Verde group stage match was not only a big win for the draw strategy but also a nightmare for those who bet on the favorite.
In this group stage match, Spain had a 92% probability of winning pre-match. Polymarket data shows that an account identified as @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bet on a Spain victory in this World Cup group stage match. The match ended 0-0, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for this user.
Notably, the user placed the bet when the odds were at $0.92, risking $1 million in principal for a potential profit of $85,000. What seemed like a sure bet ultimately turned into a catastrophic loss due to Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper making seven stunning saves and their incredibly resilient defense.
0-0 and 1-1: Becoming the Dominant Themes of This World Cup So Far
Looking at the draw results so far, the draws in this World Cup's group stage are not random occurrences but concentrate on several typical scorelines.
The most common is 1-1. Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar vs. Switzerland, Brazil vs. Morocco, Belgium vs. Egypt, Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay, Portugal vs. DR Congo, and Czech Republic vs. South Africa all ended this way. The common thread in these games is that neither side was completely outclassed, nor was it simply a case of the weaker team parking the bus. More often, it was a situation where the stronger team failed to convert dominance into victory, while the weaker side seized their chances to respond. The matches appeared back-and-forth, but ultimately, neither could truly break the other down.
For traders, the value of a 1-1 draw lies in its stability. It may not be the most lucrative source of profit, but its higher frequency forms the bedrock of the "bet on a draw every match" strategy.
What truly boosts the returns are the 0-0 draws.
The Spain vs. Cape Verde match is the most typical example. Spain was the overwhelming favorite pre-match, with the draw probability at only 5.5%. Yet the match ended 0-0. A $1,000 pre-match bet on a draw would have yielded a settlement of approximately $18,182. The Ecuador vs. Curaçao match followed a similar logic. The draw probability was just 8%, but it also ended 0-0, with a $1,000 bet corresponding to a settlement of $12,500.
Therefore, the real profitability of the draw strategy lies not in hitting every single match, but in the exorbitant settlement multipliers that come from the few low-probability draws that do materialize. This is especially true for 0-0 results, where the typical scene involves the favored team launching continuous attacks while the underdog's goalkeeper and defense make endless clearances.
Group G Takes the Cake: Three Draws in Four Matches
If Spain vs. Cape Verde epitomizes the low-probability draw, Group G serves more as a microcosm of the "draw density" in this group stage.
In its first four matches, Group G has produced three draws. The opening round saw Belgium draw 1-1 with Egypt and Iran draw 2-2 with New Zealand. The second round featured a 0-0 draw between Belgium and Iran. The only match that had a decisive winner was New Zealand vs. Egypt, but this doesn't change the fact that the entire group's rhythm has been significantly slowed down by draws.
Belgium, in particular, has drawn both of its group stage matches. For the team, this means the pressure to advance from the group remains high. But for those who bet on Belgium to win outright before the matches, the outcome was the same both times: no loss on the pitch, but their positions liquidated.
This is where draws are most easily underestimated in prediction markets. The market prefers betting on strong teams to win because it seems more intuitive. However, the real logic of the group stage isn't that "strong teams must win," but that many teams are perfectly willing to accept a single point. The underdog doesn't want to lose, and the favorite doesn't want to take unnecessary risks early on. Once a match becomes a stalemate, a draw becomes a very realistic outcome.
Three draws in Group G's first four matches indicates that draws are not just accidental upsets, but an integral part of group stage game theory. Especially when points haven't been clearly distanced, every team starts calculating. Winning is certainly best, but ensuring you don't lose first often becomes the safer choice.
Summary
In this World Cup, strong teams are, of course, still the protagonists.
Spain will win, Brazil will win, and strong teams will inevitably dominate certain matches. However, if we look purely at trading returns, the most profitable script in the group stage so far isn't necessarily the big wins by giants, but the recurring 1-1, 0-0, and 2-2 draws.
Those betting on strong teams wait for goals; those betting on draws wait for the final whistle. And so far, the latter are laughing louder.
