The World Cup prediction battle has begun. How are major exchanges competing for this wave of event traffic?
- Key Takeaway: With the World Cup approaching, major crypto exchanges and prediction market platforms have launched their own World Cup prediction campaigns. Binance ecosystem's predict.fun leads the way with a total prize pool of $2.3 million, while OKX, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, and others have introduced differentiated features to attract users to on-chain predictions and trading ecosystems.
- Key Elements:
- Binance has launched the "Predict Cup" campaign (with a $2 million prize pool) via predict.fun, alongside a Binance Wallet PNL Trading Competition (with a $300,000 prize pool), totaling over $2.3 million—the highest in the industry.
- OKX leverages its self-developed prediction market, employing a "free points + task incentives" mechanism. The current prize pool is 4 BTC (approximately $247,000), and when participating users exceed 400,000, the pool cap reaches 16.6 BTC (about $1.02 million).
- Bybit has launched the "Football Season 2026" campaign. Users earn Points by trading to predict match outcomes, using a points amplification and deduction mechanism. The total prize pool is up to $1 million, settled independently by phase.
- Gate has launched the "Green Pitch Prophet" campaign. Users complete tasks to earn experience tickets and prediction tickets for match forecasts. The total prize pool exceeds $500,000, including USDT rewards and football merchandise.
- Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket, launching a $200,000 prize pool campaign. This includes a champion prediction (worth $20,000), a 20-day winning streak challenge, social viewing parties, and first-trade protection features, offering low-barrier entry points.
Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)
With the World Cup approaching, the prediction market is already heating up.
With over a month of fixtures and 104 matches, from the group stage to the knockout rounds, different teams take the field every day, generating new topics for discussion daily.
Because of this, the two giants of the prediction market, Polymarket and Kalshi, have already staked their claims ahead of the World Cup. Polymarket has launched a World Cup section, but has not yet set up a separate prize pool, likely still relying on LPs for incentives; Kalshi, while offering a $1 million prize pool for the champion prediction, requires US KYC for participation.
Polymarket's dedicated World Cup prediction interface
But the excitement in the World Cup prediction market isn't limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. As the tournament nears, major exchanges are also joining this prediction fever. Below, Odaily will take you through the World Cup prediction activities of major exchanges one by one.
Binance: predict.fun Becomes the World Cup Prediction Market Gateway, Dual Events with a Total Prize Pool Exceeding $2.3 Million
Among the World Cup prediction market activities announced so far, the rewards offered by predict.fun within the Binance ecosystem are the highest.
It's worth noting that both the Binance main site and Binance Wallet have integrated the third-party on-chain prediction market platform predict.fun, offering users access to probability trading. Consequently, Binance's World Cup prediction market activities are centered around predict.fun.
Binance main site prediction section World Cup activity interface
Specifically, predict.fun's World Cup activities are divided into two parts. First, the "Predict Cup" event on the predict.fun platform itself, with a total prize pool of $2 million. Second, Binance Wallet, in collaboration with predict.fun, has launched the Football Season PNL Trading Competition, with a prize pool of $300,000.
The "Predict Cup" event is more focused on the complete World Cup journey (official link: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can select up to 5 supported teams and make predictions on markets such as match results, scores, and number of goals, accumulating Fan Points to share in the prize pool. Rewards are determined by the user's ranking points at the end of each round and are distributed after the round concludes. The top-ranked player always receives 15% of the pool, increasing to 20% for the final. Here is the breakdown of the available prize pool for each round:
- Group Stage: $70,000 per group;
- Round of 32: $25,000 per match;
- Round of 16: $30,000 per match;
- Quarter-finals: $40,000 per match;
- Semi-finals: $50,000 per match;
- Final: $260,000.
"Predict Cup" Event Prize Pool Distribution
The $300,000 PNL Trading Competition (pinned on Binance Wallet's official X account) jointly run by Binance Wallet and predict.fun is more focused on trading skill ranking. Users must register via the event page and trade in World Cup category markets on the Binance main site prediction market or the predict.fun app within Binance Wallet. Final rankings are based on realized PNL generated during the event. The top 500 qualifying users on the leaderboard will receive rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.
Binance Wallet web version prediction market section activity interface
OKX: Earn Points for Free to Make Predictions, Prize Pool Cap at 16.6 BTC
Unlike Binance, OKX's World Cup activities are not based on a third-party prediction market but on its proprietary in-platform prediction market. Users do not need to invest capital directly to participate in World Cup prediction events; instead, they earn points by completing tasks and use those points for predictions.
In terms of entry barrier, OKX's approach leans towards "free predictions + task incentives." Users can earn points by registering for the event, daily check-ins, predicting matches, completing new user tasks, and inviting friends. These points are then used for World Cup match predictions.
Regarding the prize pool, OKX uses a dynamic unlocking mechanism. Currently, nearly 80,000 users are participating, and the current prize pool is 4 BTC (approximately $247,000). When the number of participants exceeds 400,000, the prize pool reaches its cap of 16.6 BTC (approximately $1.02 million). Specifically, users can earn points in five main ways:
- Predict World Cup matches to earn points;
- Register for the event to receive an immediate point bonus;
- New users completing tasks and registering for the event get an instant point bonus;
- Invite friends who complete new user tasks to earn points instantly;
- Daily check-ins to earn points.
OKX prediction section World Cup activity
Bybit: Trade to Earn Points, Use Points to Predict Matches, Total Prize Pool Up to $1 Million
Bybit's World Cup event, named Football Season 2026, revolves around trading tasks and football match predictions, with a total prize pool of up to $1 million.
The event uses a "trade to earn points, use points to make predictions" mechanism. Users first earn Points by completing specific trading tasks, then use these Points to predict football match outcomes. Correct predictions multiply the points according to the corresponding community multiplier; incorrect predictions deduct the used points.
The event is divided into three phases: Group Stage, Knockout Stage, and Final, with each phase settled independently. Users who accumulate at least 30 net points in a single phase are eligible to share in that phase's prize pool. Final rewards are distributed proportionally based on the net points of qualifying users.
Bybit World Cup prediction activity interface
Gate: Launches World Cup Section and "Pitch Prophet" $500,000 Event
Gate has launched the "Pitch Prophet" limited-time World Cup event. During the event, users who register and complete tasks related to spot, futures, CFD, VIP upgrades, and other business lines can claim prediction market trial vouchers and contest tickets. These can be used in designated football prediction markets on Gate Polymarket to participate in quiz tasks, vying for points leaderboard rankings, ultimate champion predictions, VIP jersey gift boxes, live-streaming lucky draws, and other rewards.
The total prize pool for the event exceeds $500,000, including prediction market trial vouchers, USDT rewards, trading cashback, and limited-edition football-themed merchandise.
Gate Pitch Prophet event interface
Bitget: Main Activity in Bitget Wallet, Launching $200,000 Event
Bitget's World Cup moves are primarily concentrated in Bitget Wallet. On the product side, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket's World Cup prediction market, allowing users to participate in on-chain predictions directly within the wallet. They can also view supplementary information like AI analysis and smart money tracking.
Centered around this entry point, Bitget Wallet has launched the 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market event, with a total prize pool of $200,000. Specific activities include:
- World Cup Champion Prediction, with a $20,000 prize pool. Users select the team they believe will win the championship and earn points by inviting friends. Users who correctly guess the champion will share the prize pool based on their points. This activity requires no trading, making it low-barrier;
- 20-Day Prediction Streak Event, with an $80,000 prize pool. Users participate in designated prediction market trades daily during the event period. Meeting the requirements earns rewards, up to $10 per day and $200 for the entire event;
- Social Watch Party, with a $50,000 prize pool. Users join the Bitget Wallet viewing channel to participate in random red envelopes and exclusive airdrops during live matches;
- First Trade Protection, with a $50,000 prize pool. Users making their first trade on the prediction market can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet if they incur losses. Limited slots available on a first-come, first-served basis.
