24H Hot Cryptocurrencies and Key News｜U.S. House Speaker: Confident of securing enough votes to end partial government shutdown by next Tuesday at the latest; Interactive Brokers: Bitcoin and gold show converging trends again, silver recently resembles a "meme stock" (February 1st)
- Core View: The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing a broad decline, with Bitcoin falling below a key cost line, putting pressure on market confidence. Analysts generally believe the adjustment cycle is not over yet, but the depth of this bear market may be limited.
- Key Elements:
- Broad Market Decline and Confidence Crisis: Bitcoin fell below Strategy's cost price of $76,037, the first time since October 2023, representing a roughly 40% retracement from the 2025 high. Market buying has disappeared, and liquidity is contracting.
- Tightening Regulation and Compliance: The EU has initiated infringement proceedings against 12 member states for failing to implement crypto tax rules; the advancement of the OECD's CARF framework signals the gradual end of the era of offshore crypto asset tax avoidance.
- Institutional Moves and Fund Flows: The mysterious entity "7 Siblings" bought over 24,000 ETH in two days; the next round of FTX creditor fund distribution is expected to take place on March 31.
- Divergence in Analyst Views: PlanB believes BTC could drop to $55,000-$58,000, but this cycle might be a "shallow bear"; CryptoQuant CEO points out that unless MicroStrategy engages in large-scale selling, a historically deep crash may be difficult to occur.
- Macro and Industry Events: CME data shows an 84.7% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March; the CrossCurve cross-chain bridge was attacked, and the project team initiated a 72-hour white-hat window.
1. Hot Tokens on CEX
Top 10 CEX Trading Volume and 24-hour Price Change:
- BTC: -1.54%
- ETH: -6.21%
- SOL: -3.06%
- BNB: -2.72%
- DOGE: +0.25%
- UTK: +3.62%
- SENT: -6.83%
- Binance Life: -4.72%
- MDT: -2.47%
- BAR: -1%
24-hour Top Gainers (Data Source: OKX):
- MERL: +14.18%
- IP: +12.32%
- LIT: +10.53%
- WLFI: +8.28%
- ZEC: +8.06%
- VELO: +6.82%
- HYPE: +6.7%
- ANIME: +6.65%
- SPK: +5.64%
- NAVX: +4.7%
24-hour Top Gainers - Tokenized Stocks (Data Source: msx.com):
- GME: +3.85%
- SNDK: +2.9%
- SIVR: +2.41%
- MU: +1.72%
- GLD: +0.99%
- OKLO: +0.98%
- IREN: +0.76%
- DJT: +0.7%
- NEM: +0.69%
- SQQQ: +0.62%
2. On-chain Hot Memes (Data Source: GMGN):
- LARPBOOK
- ELON MUSK
- meme
- 1LY
- LipsCoin
Headlines
Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in March at 84.7%
According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 15.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 84.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 29.0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 68.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 3.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by June is 49.5%.
Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, believes silver has recently performed similarly to a "meme stock." Although the strengthening dollar following news of Trump's Fed Chair nominee Warsh put pressure on silver trading, its decline began overnight before the nomination news was public. Furthermore, data shows that over the past two years, the performance of gold and Bitcoin has been highly aligned, with their returns differing by only a few percentage points. Currently, these two asset classes are showing converging trends again. Sosnick concluded that while investor psychology of seeking alternative assets and chasing momentum persists, the phenomenon of "meme-fying" a traditional commodity with thousands of years of history may be nearing its end.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" on Sunday that he believes he has secured enough Republican support votes to ensure an end to the partial government shutdown by Tuesday at the latest. "I believe we can get this done by Tuesday at the latest. A practical problem we face is how to get everyone back to town," he said. A previous snowstorm disrupted travel in the southeastern US, causing ongoing transportation issues.
Industry News
Mysterious Entity '7 Siblings' Spent $57.21 Million to Buy 24,000 ETH Over Past 2 Days
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the mysterious entity "7 Siblings" (0x741...31f3, 0x28a...a6b0) purchased 11,333 ETH for $26.13 million.
Over the past 2 days, this entity has spent a total of $57.21 million to purchase 24,139 ETH, with an average purchase price of $2,370. The entity still holds open orders on CoWSwap to buy more ETH.
"1011 Insider Whale" Fully Liquidated on Hyperliquid, Single Liquidation Exceeds $700 Million
According to MLM monitoring, the "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Bullish (@GarrettBullish) experienced a full liquidation on Hyperliquid, with a single liquidation exceeding $700 million. Data shows that over the past two weeks, his cumulative losses on Hyperliquid amounted to approximately $270 million.
On-chain records also show that since starting to trade with this account in early October 2025, Garrett Bullish's historical cumulative PnL has incurred losses exceeding $128 million.
Bitcoin Briefly Falls Below Strategy's Cost Basis of $76,037, First Time Since October 2023
Market data shows that the Bitcoin price briefly fell below Strategy's cost basis of approximately $76,037. This marks the first time since October 2023 that Bitcoin has retreated below this key cost level.
Project News
CrossCurve Cross-Chain Bridge Attacked, Initiates 72-Hour White Hat Window with Up to 10% Bounty
CrossCurve announced that its cross-chain bridge was "attacked," with the "attacker" exploiting a vulnerability in a smart contract. The project team has urged users to immediately halt all interactions with CrossCurve until the investigation is complete and stated that progress updates will be continuously disclosed through official channels.
The project team subsequently confirmed that some addresses received token funds belonging to users due to this vulnerability. CrossCurve stated that no subjective malicious intent has been identified in the related addresses and called for cooperation in returning the incorrectly transferred assets. According to its Safe Harbor white hat policy, white hats can retain up to 10% of the recovered funds as a bounty.
The announcement stated that if no funds are returned or effective contact is established within 72 hours from Ethereum block height 24,364,392, the project team will escalate the matter as appropriate, including initiating criminal and civil proceedings, and collaborate with exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and on-chain analysis firms to freeze or trace the related assets.
FTX Creditor Representative: Next Round of Fund Distribution Expected on March 31
FTX creditor representative Sunil posted on X platform, stating that the next round of FTX fund distribution is expected to take place on March 31. The current reconciled claim total is approximately $9.6 billion, comprising: about $780 million in claims under $50,000, about $7.8 billion in claims over $50,000, and about $1 billion in non-customer claims. Sunil also noted that the dispute reserve has been reduced by about $2.2 billion. If subsequent funds of approximately $2 billion are distributed, it is estimated that the claims-over-$50,000 category could receive an additional payment of about $1.7 billion. Overall, FTX creditor recovery progress continues, and the pace of subsequent distributions still depends on the resolution of disputed claims and asset liquidation progress.
Jupiter Announces Integration of Prediction Market Polymarket
Jupiter announced on X platform that it will integrate the prediction market Polymarket. This integration will make Jupiter an innovative prediction platform on Solana, allowing users to directly use Polymarket via the built-in "Predictions" feature in the Jupiter App.
Investment & Financing
A senior member of the UAE royal family secretly purchased a 49% stake in Trump's cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial for $500 million.
Regulatory Developments
The European Commission has intensified enforcement of the crypto asset regulatory framework, initiating infringement proceedings against 12 member states for failing to implement or fully enforce EU crypto tax and market-related rules. The named countries include Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, and Portugal.
The European Commission stated that these countries failed to fully transpose Directive (EU) 2023/2226 into national law. This directive requires crypto-asset service providers to report certain user and transaction data to tax authorities to enhance cross-border information exchange and combat tax evasion and avoidance related to digital assets. The concerned countries must respond and complete rectification within two months; otherwise, the cases may be escalated to the Court of Justice of the European Union.
Furthermore, the European Commission initiated separate proceedings against Hungary for not fully complying with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), pointing out that its domestic legislation introduced additional authorization and criminal liability requirements inconsistent with MiCA, creating compliance uncertainty for market participants. The EU emphasized its commitment to ensuring uniform enforcement of crypto regulatory rules across member states.
As global crypto tax regulation continues to tighten, industry views suggest the "era of offshore crypto asset tax avoidance" is gradually ending. Holders of large, undeclared offshore crypto assets face higher compliance risks, with some investors proactively seeking voluntary disclosure to mitigate potential criminal risks. The Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) promoted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has begun implementation in multiple jurisdictions, aiming to unify global crypto asset information reporting standards and require institutions like exchanges and brokers to provide account and transaction data to tax authorities. This mechanism, combined with fiat on/off-ramp data, on-chain analysis, and exchange internal ledger data, will significantly enhance regulators' ability to track undeclared assets. Market observers anticipate that with over 70 countries committed to advancing CARF, relevant transaction data will be gradually collected starting in 2026 and enter the first round of cross-border tax information exchange in 2027, with crypto asset tax compliance requirements likely to continue tightening.
Voices
DCG Founder: The Process of Massive Capital Flowing into Crypto is About to Begin
DCG founder Barry Silbert posted on X platform, stating that leverage and low-quality tokens are being cleaned out, which is a gift from the crypto space. The process of massive capital flowing into crypto is about to begin, and now is the time to pick targets. His personal picks include BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, TAO, and Bittensor subnet tokens.
PlanB: BTC Enters Bear Market Zone or Could Test $55k–$58k, But This Cycle May Be a Shallow Bear
Crypto analyst PlanB posted on X platform, stating that Bitcoin closed January at $78,635, down about 38% from its all-time high. The current Bitcoin 200-week moving average is around $58k, and the realized price is around $55k and trending downward; meanwhile, the RSI has fallen below 50, entering the "bear market zone" as defined by his model. Historically, Bitcoin has the potential to fall back to the 200-week moving average or realized price during bear market phases. However, he also noted that the momentum in this bull phase has been relatively weak, with no strong top signals appearing, so subsequent bear market pullbacks may be relatively limited.
CryptoQuant CEO: If MSTR Doesn't Massively Sell, Bitcoin May Not Experience Historically Deep Crash
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X platform, stating that Bitcoin's current decline is mainly due to persistent selling pressure and a lack of new capital inflows. He pointed out that the Realized Cap has recently been largely flat, indicating no significant new capital entering the market. In such an environment, if the total market cap declines, it typically does not fit a bull market structure. Ki Young Ju further stated that, influenced by ETF funds and Strategy's continuous buying, early holders still hold significant unrealized profits and have been gradually realizing them since the beginning of last year. Previously strong capital inflows once supported Bitcoin around $100k, but currently, such incremental capital has significantly weakened. He believes Strategy was one of the key drivers of this rally, and if Michael Saylor does not engage in large-scale selling, the market may not experience the ~70% deep retracements seen in previous cycles. Overall, selling pressure persists, the market bottom is not yet clear, but this bear market phase is more likely to present a wide-range consolidation pattern.
Bloomberg: Bitcoin Breaks Below $80k, Confidence Crisis Intensifies
Bitcoin briefly fell below $76k during weekend's thin trading, retreating about 40% from its 2025 high, marking its longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Market participants note that this decline was not triggered by panic selling or systemic risk but rather by a combination of disappearing buy-side interest, contracting liquidity, and weakening confidence.
Data shows Bitcoin has been unresponsive to geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and risk asset rebounds; recent sharp volatility in precious metals also failed to trigger capital rotation. Spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional buying has noticeably cooled, and market depth remains over 30% lower than the October 2024 peak.
Analysts generally believe the adjustment cycle is not over. Kaiko expects Bitcoin may need another 6 to 9 months for a substantial recovery; some institutions warn that Bitcoin may struggle to reach new highs within the next 1,000 days. Overall, price, correlation, and market conviction are under simultaneous pressure.
