After hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin has entered the most crucial price range of this cycle: approximately $110,000 to $112,000. The sideways price movement doesn't necessarily indicate stability; rather, it reflects an adjustment in the holding structure: long-term holders are gradually reducing their positions, while new institutional buyers are absorbing selling pressure. This supply redistribution has suppressed volatility and masked the brewing structural tensions. The current market "equilibrium" is more like a critical balance—once a direction is triggered, it will lead to a dramatic trend change.

Supply redistribution: Institutional takeover, existing staff reduce holdings

On-chain data shows that low-frequency indicators such as Bitcoin's realized market capitalization (Realized Cap) and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) are simultaneously shifting towards a defensive stance, reflecting that long-term holders are gradually realizing their profits. Meanwhile, ETF fund flows have become a key variable: inflows totaled nearly $6 billion in nine trading days in late September, driving a price rebound; however, the inflow momentum slowed rapidly in October due to tariffs and macroeconomic disruptions. If new demand cannot be sustained, the current balance will be difficult to maintain.

It's worth noting that the price has repeatedly tested the 21-week moving average and the short-term realized price (STH Realized Price), two structural indicators that have historically served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish trends. If the price falls below $110,000, suppliers will regain control of the market, potentially triggering a short-term structural clearing.

Accumulated macroeconomic disturbances: A stronger dollar and a wait-and-see attitude among ETF investors resonate.

The recent moderate strengthening of the US dollar index has broken the old logic that "a weaker dollar is good for Bitcoin." Historical experience shows that Bitcoin's sustained rise is often built on a period of dollar weakness; conversely, when the dollar enters a strong phase, Bitcoin's performance is usually limited. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's latest remarks have weakened market expectations of "guaranteed easing," causing long-only institutions to return to a wait-and-see approach. The year-end window for capital inflows is narrowing; if ETF funds fail to resume inflows for an extended period, market equilibrium may be disrupted, and the price center of gravity may shift down to the $85,000 to $100,000 range.

Bitcoin is currently in a structural rebalancing phase of this bull market. Market liquidity remains ample and institutional participation is undiminished, but the tug-of-war within a price range indicates a generational transfer of ownership. Short-term strategies should prioritize price discipline and risk control, avoiding being swayed by narrative sentiment. If ETF funds flow back in, this correction will serve as a build-up before an upward move; if funds stagnate, the market will complete its rebalancing through a brief clearing process. This "calm" is not the end, but rather the silence before a directional market breakout.

The above viewpoints are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.