The evolution of this Bitcoin cycle is strikingly different from previous ones. After the bear market bottomed out in October 2022 and the initial signal was confirmed in June 2023, the Bitcoin price successfully surpassed $125,000 in 2025, reaching a new all-time high. With the target range achieved, the market focus has shifted from "whether the bull market has begun" to "when it will end." Unlike earlier cycles that relied on retail investors and technical narratives, this cycle is more deeply driven by macro liquidity and institutional capital. Its structural characteristics are determining the sustainability of future price fluctuations.

Market maturity accelerates: Bitcoin narrative shifts from technology to capital logic

After four cycles of bull and bear markets, Bitcoin's pricing logic has shifted from technological innovation to capital flows and macroeconomic variables. The 2011 rally was aborted due to weak infrastructure; the 2013 and 2017 runs were subsequently ended by tightening regulations and overheated speculation; and the 2021 peak was driven by the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from its easing policy. Entering the current cycle, with improved market infrastructure and a growing share of institutional holdings, prices have become increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates and liquidity. Since the BIP 91 upgrade, Bitcoin has steadily established itself as "digital gold," and its volatility is aligning with that of traditional financial markets.

New funds and policy expectations determine the end of the cycle

This rally could peak under two scenarios: first, a re-hawkish Federal Reserve and tightening global liquidity; second, a lack of new capital inflows, preventing early profit-taking. The realized price for short-term holders and the 21-week moving average are considered key risk signals; a break below them could signal a weakening of upward momentum. Bitcoin's potential for continued growth depends on capital availability and institutional risk appetite, not retail speculation.

Overall, Bitcoin is entering a mature phase centered on macroeconomic and institutional logic. The dramatic fluctuations of the fourth bull market have shifted the market from "technical narratives" to "capital realities." The height of future cycles will be determined by global interest rates, liquidity, and the pace of capital inflows.

Some of the above opinions are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets are risky, so invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering your individual circumstances and consulting a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided.