Wall Street consensus breaks down: Is this Bitcoin cycle over?

Original article | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜jk

Have we passed the worst? This is a question Wall Street has been asking the crypto industry all week.

Since hitting a low of $81,000 last week, Bitcoin has recovered to above $91,000, a weekly gain of over 12%, and has once again firmly established itself above the $90,000 mark. Does this rebound signal that the market has bottomed out, or is it merely a technical bounce before a deeper correction? Has the cycle of significant Bitcoin corrections ended, or are we not yet facing a true bear market?

At this critical turning point, top Wall Street institutions have shown an unusual polarization in their assessments of Bitcoin's future direction.

Optimists: Institutionalization is changing the game, and major corrections are a thing of the past.

JPMorgan: From Cycle Theory to Macro Assets

JPMorgan analysts recently expressed optimism about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The bank's analysts noted that cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by macroeconomic trends than by Bitcoin's predictable four-year halving cycle. JPMorgan strategists believe Bitcoin appears undervalued after clearing excessive leverage and see "significant upside potential" over the next 6-12 months. Specifically, JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, a target price representing nearly double the current price.

The bank emphasized in its report: "Cryptocurrencies are transitioning from a venture capital-like ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class, backed by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation."

Standard Chartered: $200,000 is just the starting point.

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, has taken a more aggressively optimistic stance. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and potentially $500,000 by 2028. Kendrick states that Bitcoin's decentralized ledger serves as a shield against the vulnerabilities of centralized financial systems; in a client report dated October 2nd, Kendrick reiterated the $200,000 year-end target and noted that the US government shutdown could be a tailwind driving Bitcoin's rise.

Standard Chartered believes that the continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and "US government risk" will benefit them as political gridlock deepens. The bank projects: "At least another $20 billion in inflows by the end of the year, making the year-end forecast of $200,000 possible."

Citibank: Three scenarios, benchmark $135,000

Citibank's analysis is more systematic, offering three possibilities. Citi predicts Bitcoin's baseline scenario will reach $135,000 by 2025, while an optimistic scenario could see it reach $199,000.

The bank's analysts broke down price drivers into multiple components. Citigroup highlighted that ETF demand now accounts for over 40% of Bitcoin price changes. According to its internal model, ETF demand currently explains more than 40% of Bitcoin price movements, and the bank expects an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows in 2025, which could potentially add approximately $63,000 to the Bitcoin price.

In addition to institutional funding inflows, Citigroup also assesses user growth as a structural factor, forecasting a 20% global user growth that will support a base price level of nearly $75,000.

Bitwise: We're near the bottom, not the top.

As market panic reached its peak, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan offered a different perspective. Hougan stated that long-term buyers—genuine institutions such as the Harvard endowment fund and the Abu Dhabi Foundation—were already buying at current levels.

Hougan believes retail investors are in a state of "extreme desperation," but this precisely means the bottom may be near. In an interview with CNBC, he stated, "When I talk to institutional investors or financial advisors, they are still excited about allocating to this asset class, which continues to offer very strong returns over a one-year timeframe."

He stated explicitly, "I believe the four-year cycle is over," and predicted a 30%-50% pullback, but added, "I bet a 70% retracement is a thing of the past." This view was supported by data.

Hougan gave a specific prediction for Bitcoin's price at the end of the year: "Bitcoin could easily reach new highs by the end of the year, which means breaking through approximately $125,000 to $130,000. Whether we can reach $150,000 remains to be seen."

The four-year cycle is failing.

Several analysts have put forward the view that the traditional four-year cycle may be failing, and there may no longer be a black swan-induced winter-level bear market.

"As markets mature, long-term holders accumulate at historical highs, and volatility decreases, the traditional four-year timeframe is being replaced by more sensitive liquidity and macro-related behaviors," said Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol.

A prominent analyst on Chinese social media, Banmu Xia, also provided a detailed technical analysis, supporting a target price of $240,000. His logic is quite interesting: "Regarding Bitcoin, there's only one point, simple and direct: it's currently gradually falling to $84,000, then experiencing several months of complex fluctuations, before surging to $240,000 by the end of next year or early next year, following the bubble burst in US stocks."

Changes in market structure also support this argument. The launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF altered market dynamics, with pullbacks significantly reduced since its inception, rarely exceeding 20%. This new layer of institutional participation has transformed Bitcoin into a more mature macro asset, thus the explosive tops and deep bear markets typical of past cycles are unlikely to repeat themselves in the same way.

Pessimists: The bear market has arrived; cyclical patterns cannot be defied.

However, not all Wall Street giants are optimistic. In fact, some institutions have issued the opposite warnings.

Morgan Stanley: Autumn is here, time to prepare for winter.

Morgan Stanley has issued the clearest warning signal yet. The bank's strategists warn that the market has entered "autumn," a harvest period in the four-year cycle, and that profits should be taken in preparation for a potential "crypto winter."

"We're in autumn now," investment strategist Denny Galindo said on a podcast. "Autumn is harvest time, so now is the time to take profits. But the debate is how long this autumn will last and when the next winter will begin." He said historical patterns show that significant corrections precede "autumn," with past winters seeing price drops as high as 80%. Specifically, the 2017 bull market caused Bitcoin to fall from $19,000 to $3,200 in the winter of 2018, while the 2021 peak of $69,000 was followed by a low of $16,000 in the winter of 2022.

JPMorgan: Yes, it's me again.

JPMorgan has taken a very contradictory stance on this issue. While the bank publicly predicts a long-term price of up to $240,000, its latest structured products tell a completely different story.

JPMorgan's structured note product is designed entirely based on the four-year halving cycle, predicting that Bitcoin will enter a downtrend in 2026 and then rise again in 2028 (the next halving).

The product mechanism is that if the preset price is reached by the end of 2026, JPMorgan will redeem the notes and pay a minimum return of 16%; however, if the price falls below that, the notes will continue until 2028, and investors may receive a return of 1.5 times their principal with no upper limit.

However, the risks are equally significant: the product offers 30% downside protection, but if the ETF falls by more than 30%, investors could lose over 40% or even their entire principal. JPMorgan warns in its risk disclosure: "The notes do not guarantee any return of principal. If the notes are not redeemed early and the final value is lower than the barrier amount, you will lose 1% of your principal, corresponding to every 1% of the final value falling below the initial value."

This product design essentially bets that Bitcoin will fall in 2026, which contrasts sharply with the bank's publicly stated long-term bullish stance.

CryptoQuant: The Bear Market Has Begun

CryptoQuant's assessment is very straightforward: the bear market has begun.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score has fallen to an extreme bearish level of 20/100, and the price of BTC is well below its 365-day moving average of $102,000. The platform's analysts stated, "Fundamentals and technical indicators are both pointing in the same direction: we are in a bear market."

CryptoQuant provides a definitive answer regarding whether the cycle has ended. Based on a four-year cycle standard, including 2014-2017 and 2018-2021, the current cycle (2022-2025) is nearing its end. While the consensus suggests another BTC rebound (possibly in 2026), technical and fundamental indicators suggest a bear market may have already begun.

CryptoQuant also stated, "Strategy cannot support this market alone; treasury firms have essentially disappeared as a source of demand."

Will the traditional decline reappear?

There is intense debate in the market about whether a sharp correction of 70-80% will occur again.

The bearish argument is that historically, Bitcoin has plummeted by about 70-80% from its peak after a halving, a prominent feature of traditional cycles. Some analysts point out that past cycles have seen drops of over 70%—if history repeats itself, it would mean a potential low around $35,000-$40,000.

But optimists insist that times have changed. Hougan acknowledges that a 30-50% drop is possible, but emphasizes: "I bet a 70% pullback is a thing of the past." His reasoning is that long-term holders and steady institutional inflows are facilitating greater downside absorption.

Disagreement itself is a signal

Such a huge divergence among top Wall Street institutions is itself an important signal.

On the one hand, this reflects that the Bitcoin market is at a critical turning point. Fundamentals and technical indicators both point in the same direction: we are in a bear market, but long-term holders continue to accumulate, and institutions are not exiting the market, but rather in a rotation phase rather than withdrawing funds.

On the other hand, this divergence also reveals a deeper truth: Bitcoin is transforming from a retail-dominated, sentiment-driven speculative asset into a complex macro asset shaped by diverse institutional participants. In this transformation, old rules may no longer apply, but the new paradigm has not yet been fully established.

Ironically, JPMorgan predicted in its research reports that Bitcoin could reach $240,000 in the long term, while simultaneously launching a structured product betting on a decline in 2026. This contradiction perhaps best illustrates the complexity of the current market: even the shrewdest institutions on Wall Street are making multiple bets across different timeframes and scenarios. For investors, the only certainty is that, regardless of which side you choose in this institutional-level divergence, you should be prepared for the opposite scenario.