SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230908): The trading volume in the cryptocurrency derivatives market has plummeted.
The US stock market and cryptocurrency market continued to fluctuate in the past two weeks, and the corresponding options market volume remained weak. The US CPI and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in September have received close attention from the market, and the market expects the September interest rate meeting to be a key turning point for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Due to this uncertainty, the Nasdaq has experienced a rare daily level of volatility. I have repeatedly emphasized that it is unlikely for the cryptocurrency market to experience a major bull market trend before the Federal Reserve actively pauses the interest rate cycle. And September is likely to be a subtle time window.
During Monday to Wednesday, the size of corporate bond issuance has reached $55 billion, and yesterday's new bond issuance temporarily slowed down, causing US bond trading volume to drop to about 60% of normal levels, and the 2-year yield also fell below 5% due to some bargain hunting after the low point; in terms of US economic data, the job data is still confusing, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to the lowest level since February at 216,000, meanwhile, Walmart announced that it will cut starting salaries for some new employees due to concern over rising costs. On the other hand, the wage growth measure by the Atlanta Federal Reserve slowed down from 5.7% YoY to 5.3% this month, and the gap between job changers and non-job changers narrowed, indicating a sustained slowdown in the tight job market.
The stock market sentiment remains low, and the US dollar continues to break through the highest level since 2007 against the Chinese yuan (weakening of the yuan), while the Chinese government further expands the iPhone ban, including more institutions, causing Apple's market value to shrink by $200 billion before the release of iPhone 15 next week. Bank of America estimates that iPhone sales in China are about 50 million units, and this ban will lead to a 10-20% decrease in shipments. Prior to the crackdown in China, Apple was expected to become the world's largest smartphone manufacturer in terms of sales for the first time. However, in the current environment, this milestone seems to have to be pushed back.
In the cryptocurrency sector, price fluctuations are still minimal, with derivatives and spot trading volumes in August falling to the lowest level in nearly a year. In terms of news, JPM announced that they are exploring the use of digital deposit tokens for cross-border payments and settlements, while former FTX executive Ryan Salame reached a plea agreement with the US government on criminal charges. In regulatory actions, the CFTC has filed charges against three Defi platforms, Opyn, ZeroEx, and Deridex, including failure to register as SEF/DCM/FCM as well as providing illegal leverage "commodity" trading to US retail investors.
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