Overnight? There were actually warning signs before the overnight surge.

Originally Posted by Babywhale, Foresight News

At 22:00 Beijing time yesterday evening, affected by the lower-than-expected number of JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in July, the U.S. dollar index plunged in the short term, U.S. stocks rose, and Bitcoin also rose in the short term due to the influence of macro expectations. After that, with the news that Grayscale won the lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Bitcoin rose by more than 5% in half an hour. Two hours later, Bitcoin broke through $28,000 in a short-term

Macro data is positive, and risk assets collectively rise

In the data just released, there were 8.827 million JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in July, compared with the expected 9.45 million and the previous 9.582 million. The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in August was 106.1, which was expected to be 116.2, and the previous value was 117. Both of them were lower than expected, which led to a decline in the markets expectations for the probability of subsequent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In addition to the short-term dive of the US dollar index, the two-year US bond yield fell by more than 10 basis points to 4.90%, falling below the 5% mark. The 10-year base bond yield fell more than 7 basis points to 4.14%, a new daily low.

U.S. stocks, which were “opposite” to the U.S. dollar index, ushered in a rare respite. They collectively opened lower and moved higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 130 points in the first hour of trading, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose more than 1%.

Going back a few days, Federal Reserve Chairman Powells speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting caused short-term declines in Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, but overall it was still more dovish than market expectations. Given that the market is currently facing a critical moment of when to stop raising interest rates, a few words may have caused panic in the market, but the overall tone of the speech may have paved the way for a subsequent rebound in the market.

Grayscale wins case, but spot ETFs remain up in the air

Previously, Grayscale filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It believed that the SECs reason for believing that Bitcoin spot ETFs are easily manipulated, resulting in higher risks than futures ETFs, was completely untenable, and required the SEC to review its conversion of GBTC into Bitcoin spot ETF request.

Just now, news came that Grayscale won the case. The U.S. Federal Court of Appeal ruled to approve Grayscale’s (Grayscale) review request and revoked the SEC’s order, requiring the SEC to review Grayscale’s ETF request. Subsequently, Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein said, “In our lawsuit challenging the SEC’s decision to refuse GBTC to convert into an ETF, the D.C. Circuit Court ruled in favor of Grayscale. Our legal team is actively reviewing the court’s opinion.

The SEC spokesperson also stated that the SEC is reviewing the courts ruling on the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF issue to determine the next step.

It is worth noting here that although Grayscale’s victory is a good thing, it does not actually mean that Grayscale’s GBTC will definitely be allowed to be converted into a Bitcoin spot ETF. The specific decision still needs to wait for the follow-up development.

Large institutions have accurately predicted this rise, and they still need to pay attention to risks in the future

The CFTC Bitcoin Position Weekly Report at the beginning of this week showed that the long position of the largest dealer account rose from 556 to 777, a record high, and the long position of large accounts rose from 321 to 453. Both of them accurately predicted the current round of rise.

The author wants to remind everyone that although there are many positive blessings, even if the Bitcoin spot ETF will eventually be approved, it will not be something that will be realized in the short term. It will still take a period of time to play, and the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rise is not guaranteed. Enough positive support. In addition, U.S. stocks may have peaked in the short term. Important component stocks such as Nvidia have seriously overdrawn expectations of rising prices, and the subsequent market may not be optimistic. Furthermore, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates again within the year. Even without raising interest rates, market liquidity is still being continuously drained.

Although the author remains cautiously optimistic about the market situation in the future, a large number of large-scale Web3 conferences will be held in South Korea, the United States and other places in the upcoming September, which may greatly increase market activity, but the author It is also necessary to remind investors to keep calm in the face of short-term straight-line rise and wait and see the follow-up.