SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230630): US economy shows resilience, cryptocurrency market stabilizes and improves.

The US economy continues to show incredible resilience, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly strong and final Q1 GDP significantly revised upwards. Initial jobless claims (+239,000) are lower than all predicted values from Bloomberg, and this is the largest decrease since October 2021. In addition, based on strong consumer spending and net export adjustments, Q1 GDP has been revised upwards from the initial value of 1.4% to 2%.

In addition to higher-than-expected inflation in Spain and Germany, bond yields have been strongly adjusted. The 2-year yield rose by 16 basis points on the day, the December 2024 OIS increased by 23 basis points, and the terminal yield rose to 5.40% (the highest level since the collapse of SVB). In addition, the 2/10-year yield curve inverted again, surpassing -100 basis points.

Although there have been significant changes in fixed income and forward rate pricing, the stock market has continued to rise for another day, with the S&P 500 index closing 0.5% higher driven by financial stocks. Stocks preferred by retail investors continued to lead the rebound, and there is not much additional information worth mentioning. Interestingly, a chart from Bloomberg shows that this year's rebound has occurred entirely during the New York trading session rather than the overnight session, which is the opposite of what has been common in the past few years. This indicates that this year's stock market rally is driven by real money from US investors, rather than just speculative futures trading.

In terms of cryptocurrencies, prices continue to remain stable. CME announced that they will launch ETH/BTC ratio futures spread trading before July 31st, which is an interesting product expansion following the recent spot ETF application. Compared to retail investors, spread trading is more popular among institutional investors. Therefore, the launch of this product is a preparation for encouraging institutional participation, which is a long-term positive for the industry. Additionally, similar to the stock market trend, BTC's recent rise has been primarily concentrated during the U.S. session, breaking the pattern where the Asian session had better price performance for most of this year.

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