SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230621): The stock market ushered in an end-of-quarter sell-off alert, and the cryptocurrency market ushered in new opportunities

特邀专栏作者

2023-06-21 14:04 (UTC+8)

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Wall Street is starting to warn of a possible end-of-quarter equity sell-off, with JPMorgan's Nikos estimating "potential month-end/quarter-end equity sales of as much as 1,500 by balanced funds, US defined benefit pensions, and Norges Bank/Japa

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The implied volatility of BTC is basically equal to the historical volatility, and the volatility premium is gone. The price of options is actually very cost-effective now, suitable for buying.

Strong housing starts data ushered in the return of the US market from the holidays. Housing starts soared 21.7% to 1.631 million units in May, well above market expectations and the largest monthly increase since 2016. Single-family homes rose 18.5%. while multi-family housing surged 27.1%; while we have mentioned the strength of the US consumer and residential markets in our previous comments, given that 30-year mortgage rates are still hovering around 20-year highs around 7%, the current The real estate market remains incredibly buoyant.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq "Golden Dragon Index," which tracks some of the more popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, fell 4.9% yesterday, its second-biggest one-day drop this year, thanks to China's 5 A smaller-than-expected drop in the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) dampened expectations of an imminent "broad-scale" easing by the PBOC; China-related stocks have underperformed relative to the SPX 500 since 2021, It is hoped that the relationship between the two countries will be further thawed starting from Secretary Blinken's visit to Beijing. Both sides have shown goodwill after the successful conclusion of the talks.

In the U.S., stock markets fell 0.5% following Friday's OpEX move, with Wall Street starting to warn of a possible end-of-quarter stock sell-off based on recent unusually hot equity markets, with JPMorgan's Nikos estimating that "balanced funds, U.S. Definitive benefit pensions and Norges Bank/Japan GPIF/SNB potentially selling stocks at month end/quarter end could be as much as $150bn", while Goldman Sachs also argues for a more defensive strategy based on:
SPX Options Put/Call Skew Decreases Significantly
Market Breadth in Index Rallies Is Unusually Narrow
Most indicators point to stock valuations being too expensive

Even against these negative backdrops, investor sentiment turned to its most positive level in two years

In response, cryptocurrency prices have rallied around 7-10% over the past few sessions, recouping most of their losses since Binance FUD, as the rally was largely fueled by market expectations of renewed mainstream interest from the TradFi giant. Driven by BTC, BTC dominance has risen back to 51%, the highest level since 2021.

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