SignalPlus: 575 to 1 Winning Special Edition

Dear friends, welcome to the special edition of SignalPlus Macro Research Report. SignalPlus macro research reports update macro market information for you every day, and share our observations and opinions on macro trends. Welcome to track and subscribe, and follow the latest market trends with us.

In a departure from our past schedule, today's morning newsletter will begin with commentary on cryptocurrencies, especially forBlackrock has filed its first long-awaited listing application for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

While countless other providers have failed to secure SEC approval for a BTC spot fund listing application (such as Grayscale’s GBTC Trust), Blackrock, with about $9 trillion in assets under management and unlimited legal resources, clearly does not operate in the same universe, Bloomberg Even the almighty chairman Gensler could face a tough battle in this battle, as the asset management giant has a 575-to-1 historical record for SEC filing approval, the senior ETF editor is quoted as saying.

Thanks to a commitment to an “oversight sharing agreement” between Nasdaq and “existing U.S. cryptocurrency spot trading platforms”, Blackrock may have found a lever to succeed when everyone else failed;The protocol will allow for the sharing of information about market trading activity, liquidation activity, and customer KYC to minimize the risk of price manipulation; influenced by this development,Grayscale's GBTC NAV losses surged from -44% to -36%, rebounding to April levels.

Ironically, perhaps for the first time in history, the TradFi asset management giant’s introduction of a mainstream channel for cryptocurrency assets has the opportunity to lead to a rebound in cryptocurrencies, which we will definitely pay close attention to.

another good news isBinance.US also reached a settlement agreement with the US SEC, the exchange agreed to transfer the assets of U.S. customers back to the U.S. and ensure that no offshore or international business personnel can access them in exchange for their assets not being frozen.

Due to these positive developments, cryptocurrencies as a whole have rebounded by about 5% from recent lows. If the spot ETF application is successful, the long-term benefits of mainstream participation for cryptocurrencies cannot be ignored, especially after a period of only After a long winter of FUD news.

Going back to the traditional financial market, the price trend of last Friday can be summed up succinctly with the following chart. SPX continued its week-long rally until Friday’s opening.The June E-Mini futures (ESM 3) hit a high at expiry and then continued to fall for the rest of the day; Delta hedging and options activity continued to dominate daily price action, with $4.2 trillion on Friday stock option expiration(up 20% YoY), and a significant portion of exposure has been rolled forward over the past two weeks (net delta buying).

At the same time, central bank officials issued their own comments after the interest rate decision meeting, trying to dampen the recent enthusiasm of the market, but failed. ECB's Wunsch said "hikes are likely to continue beyond September", although euro zone pricing shows only one hike left before reaching terminal rate (3.8%);Fed's Waller bluntly says 'inflation hasn't changed at all' in first statement since Fed's 'hawkish pause', he went on to note that the economy is "generally still growing rapidly" and that price pressures are "little changed," while "whether recent stresses in the banking sector have materially exacerbated the tightening of lending conditions is unclear," concluding, rebutting The argument that money transmission lags, saying that "Impacts are coming sooner than thought" and "transmitted much faster than in the past", overall, it was a decidedly hawkish message, and one that seemed more impressive than what Chairman Powell said last Wednesday.

There will be talks from Fed officials Tuesday through Friday this week, we expect the market to pay at least a little attention to further hawkish stances, with the chance to bring some headwinds that have been lacking for a long time to the currently overheated market.

In terms of economic data, this week’s data release mostly requires data. The only important data last Friday was the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index. Both the current situation and the expected index have risen.While 12-month inflation expectations fell to 3.3%, the lowest level since March 2021However, the current market predicts that CPI inflation will fall below 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024, which is relatively aggressive.The "Contest for the King of Options" jointly organized by OKX and SignalPlus has started! Sign up now and don't miss your chance to win up to 115,000 USDT!

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