Explore OP valuation expectations: How much is your OP airdrop worth?

特邀专栏作者

2022-04-29 16:45 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1461 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

This article mainly estimates OP based on the ratio of FDV to TVL, and different valuation methods will produce different results. The words of the family are for reference only.

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This article mainly estimates OP based on the ratio of FDV to TVL, and different valuation methods will produce different results. The words of the family are for reference only.

Original Author: olimpio.eth

Original compilation: 0x711, Rhythm BlockBeats

This article is based on the views of encrypted KOL olimpio.eth on the personal social media platform, which is organized and translated by BlockBeats as follows:

On April 27th, Optimism announced that it will launch its ecological Token OP, and announced the Token economics and airdrop plan. This article will try to value OP.

To estimate the OP's price and airdrop value, we need:

1. Analyze the Token economics of OP;

2. Compare it with other agreements and related indicators;

Token economics

Airdrops account for 19% of the total: in the first phase of the airdrop plan, 5% will be unlocked directly, and the remaining 14% will be allocated by the DAO.

Query the number of airdrops in 1 period

Core contributors (project teams) account for 19% of the total.

Seed investors accounted for 17% of the total.

Ecosystem Fund 25% of the total: The goal is to grow the Optimism ecosystem through grants, partnerships, incubating new protocols. It is basically a guarantee for the future development of its ecosystem.

Retrospective public goods funds account for 20% of the total:

V God once said: "The core principle is simple: it is easier to agree on what has worked in the past than what will work in the future."

So basically retroactive rewards are those projects that have already contributed to the ecosystem. For example, SNX?

Circulating supply

Total OP supply: 4.29 billion pieces

Initial circulating supply: about 32.5% (focused)

Token contract address: https://optimistic.etherscan.io/token/0x4200000000000000000000000000000000000042

OP valuation

Currently, Optimism's TVL is $483 million. After the launch of the token, yield mining activities may appear, so the TVL is expected to grow significantly by then. We should expect that.

The Metis and Boba networks have strong similarities with Optimism. They have both issued Tokens, and the circulation accounts for about 30% of the total.

Metis has a market capitalization-to-TVL ratio of 1.3 and Boba's 3.27.

This means that relative to its nominal valuation, Metis has much more "assets under management" than Boba.

If Optimism were valued at Metis' market cap to TVL ratio of 1.3, Optimism's market cap would be $628 million, implying an FDV (fully diluted valuation) of $1.93 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $0.45.

Based on Boda's market cap-to-TVL ratio of 3.27, Optimism's market capitalization would be $1.58 billion, implying an FDV of $4.86 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $1.13.

Immutable X has a market cap-to-TVL ratio of 6.72. Doing this would give Optimism a market capitalization of $3.25 billion, implying an FDV of $10 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $2.32.

If you compare AVAX of Avalanche Network, you need to use FDV/TVL instead of market value/TVL at this time, because their circulation ratios are quite different. With AVAX's FDV/TVL ratio of 4.94, Optimism's market capitalization would be $780 million, implying an FDV of $2.4 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $0.55.