Continue Capital Horse: Talk about the NFT of the avatar｜Different "NFT"
Original title: "Talk about NFT of Avatar"
Original author: Pi Ma, co-founder of Continue Capital
It is difficult to update the cognitive logic without learning. Now the investment system is very fragmented, and Crypto is also fragmented in various ways. We only have more than 100 million players and you can’t keep up. When there are one billion players, you will find It's the same as the current stock market, so let's get down to business.
I remember very clearly that when DeFi was hot last year, everyone sneered at NFT, including me, it was difficult to understand this thing, but the recent market attitude towards NFT, quoting the stock market, reminds people of Napoleon’s escape from Elba The title of a newspaper changed during the next seven days—"First day, Corsican monster lands at Port Jouin; second day, man-eating monsters march on Grasse; third day, usurper enters Grenoble; fourth day On the first day, Bonaparte took Lyons; on the fifth, Napoleon approached Fontainebleau; on the sixth, the Emperor arrived in Paris". In just a few months, the market's cognition and investors' subjective mentality have been adjusted a lot.
Let's start with an easy-to-understand game valuation, using the top AXIE as an example. AXIE is like an NFT sword, rising at the end of Qingping in an instant. The NFT Avatars avatar project is the focus of cognitive division. AXIE has turnover revenue and users with more than one million daily active users are profitable. The basic logic is very standard, so we I also recognize the P2E investment system, and the rest is nothing more than the problem of market space and moat. Market space Let’s refer to Internet game companies to see the revenue of game companies in 2020:
The head effect is obvious, basically dominated by Tencent and Netease. In 2020, the revenue of King of Glory will be 2.5 billion US dollars, and the gross profit margin of games will basically be above 50%. It’s not something that can be achieved overnight. Horizontal comparison: Moutai’s 2020 net profit is 7 billion US dollars, Tencent Holdings (not just the game part) has a net profit of 25 billion US dollars, and Apple’s net profit is 57.5 billion US dollars. AXIE currently has a market value of 20 billion US dollars. The market value is determined by profit and valuation. Therefore, how much room there is still depends on how you give PE and whether subsequent profits can be improved again.
The moat problem is relatively simple. If you look at the many unsustainable game products and the gap between the median revenue of game companies and the head of the game, you can know how difficult it will be to make a good game and maintain a good game. How to retain users in the form of Crypto is a question that every P2E game project should think about.
How does the avatar generate revenue? In other words, are there any rules to follow in investment avatars? The basic logic of investment is the same, so I have always been skeptical about things that cannot generate cash flow. There are so many games and avatars that are so chaotic, how to cut into it? We still have to find some rules that are universally applicable. It is easy to issue and difficult to maintain. It is not easy to understand the moat or irreplaceability of the head avatar project. I also probably browsed some narrative (cx) logic. If we are not very convincing to ourselves, then we should continue to search according to our own thinking.
First, the reservoir support. We all know that the large-scale release of the epidemic will be withdrawn, but when and how to harvest has become the focus of everyone's game. It can only be said that the Fed has demonstrated superb PUA technology on this issue, and the wolf has come again and again to shrink the balance sheet and raise interest rates. The market has repeatedly delayed and failed to implement, which has given the market sufficient preparations and expectations. The U.S. stock market has also shown extreme flexibility and repeatedly reached new highs. is the main reason.
Currency has been continuously printed and distributed, and different carriers are needed to carry so many overissued fiat currencies. There must always be a place to flow, and many reservoirs will be formed. Land and real estate are a super large reservoir, and the stock market is a large reservoir. The pool, and the art collection is also one of the reservoirs. After the rivers and seas are full of water, even a little overflow of water in the sea can cause the flooding of small lakes and rivers. There is indeed too much money in the market. From the conclusion of A16Z’s fundraising and the rapid and huge investment in first-level projects, it can be seen how urgent it is to get the money out. The coexistence of release and inflation, the coexistence of release and the growth of US stocks, the coexistence of release and the strength of the dollar, the coexistence of release and the coexistence of Crypto bulls, are too fragmented, let alone our cognition split, a bunch of stock market fund managers are undergoing self-remodeling.
Second, the composition of knowledge reserves of different groups of people. Personally, I tend to think that the people that BitEther first came into contact with are geeks or people who have a strong accumulation of computer cryptography. It is basically the same with mainstream public chains. The second wave of Alpha growth is based on DeFi, and the dominant side People with contract and financial background. Up to now, with the overall level of Crypto 2W billion US dollars, we see a lot of WEB3 opportunities, and some advantages are beginning to tilt to people with the cultural background of Internet art sports games. If you are not interested in the game itself and do not play the game at the beginning, it is difficult to get in touch with the P2E mode in the first place. If you are not interested in art, it is difficult to know who the beeple is in the first place, let alone understand or even participate in this time-consuming process. The work "Everydays: The First 5000 Days" created in 2014 (finally sold for US$69.34 million on the famous British auction platform Christie's.)
Third, the hierarchy of needs. It is also relatively easy to understand, Maslow's theory of needs, the economic base determines the superstructure, what level of economic level there is, and what level of cultural needs will be derived. There are enough granaries to know etiquette, enough food and clothing to know honor and disgrace, calligraphy and painting in troubled times, gold and prosperity, and now the market has such a high investment risk preference, many cultural and social needs need a window to display.
Finally, the cognitive update is over, how to guide the practice? The most unbearable thing in the stock market is to keep discussing. You are neither a stock critic nor an analyst. The ultimate goal is to fall on the net worth. There is no first thing in literature and no second. If your net worth is high, it is high, and one dollar more is also more. There is always a ranking, so how do we get involved? I believe that many people may be like me. Although I occasionally play games such as King of Glory, it is difficult to spare a lot of time to cultivate and follow up various games. Although I have my own preferences, it is difficult to understand some works of art. My The indicator is: market value determines everything. Treat the dazzling avatars as projects, and the paintings as tokens, so that it is easy to calculate the market value of the issuance.
For example, the 0n1 force project, with an issue price of 0.077ETH and a total of about 7777 pieces, has an initial market value of about 600ETH, or 200W USD. To quote the introduction of 0n1 force, "0n1 is mainly based on Japanese comics. In the pre-sale stage, Obtaining mint qualifications based on the activity of discord has led to an extremely active and competitive community; secondly, the project’s expectation management is very bold. In the sneak-PEek stage, most projects will release the best-looking rare models for publicity, and The pictures released by 0N1 are all ordinary models, including the pictures on the official website. As a result, when the official reveal was officially revealed, the new mask, new hairstyle and new skin exploded in an instant, causing a new round of discussion and spontaneous dissemination.”
Another example is maoNFT, with a total amount of 5000 and an issue price of 0.08ETH, which is an issue market value of 130W USD. Just give me another Crypto project. If you have the opportunity, don’t you participate in this valuation?
Another example is Qingming Riverside Picture, with a circulation of 10,000 copies, an issue price of 0.04ETH, and a market value of about 130W. ", "Forbidden City", "Hot Pot City" and many other well-known buildings. Among them, "3D Printing Model of the Three Halls of the Forbidden City" was invited to be exhibited in the Palace Museum, and became the first Baidu hot search index that day, which also shows that Guojian has a unique influence in the MC circle. At present, Guojian has 750,000 fans on station B, and its works have been played more than 30 million times." If you have the opportunity, don't you participate in this estimate?
After the secondary transaction, the unit price of each Token is different, and the market value is multiplied by the number of issuances by the Floor Price. Therefore, this market value is definitely not the market value in the strict sense, but actually the minimum market value of the project. I call it the market value as a reference.
There is no data on CryptoPunks and I didn’t calculate it carefully, but the Top4 BAYC form can calculate a market value of about 250,000 ETH, which is about 800 million U.S. dollars. It has already become a unicorn, and a horizontal comparison basically has an approximate market value positioning cognition, (but You have to understand that this counts as Floor Price) 1 billion/5 billion/10 billion US dollars is basically the dividing point of each track. Judging from the current market situation and the capacity of the reservoirs of each track, there is still room for growth , which gives us very important stage guidance.
The most important parameters are out. Others are to see if the team is good and whether the number of holders is large. For the rest, you have to talk about specific manifestations such as monkeys, dogs, cats, stones, etc. There are too many, and I’m sorry, many of them are really It is difficult to agree, how does this unify the level of art appreciation, then the question arises, does this affect our participation? Does not affect; does this need to study the internal content of each specific project? It is not necessary to be simple (of course, in-depth research will definitely have many benefits for you to recognize the project) and it will eventually be reflected in the market value and number of users.
Finally, the NFT issuance logic and transaction logic are very clear. It is no problem to configure the corresponding public chain issuance platform and Opensea, Rari and similar NFT trading platforms.
There are no stocks not to sell, only prices not to sell. Don’t be stuck in the encryption cat for a long time like me, calm your mind, don’t worry too much, the water is warm or not, you will only know when you enter the water, you can’t feel it on the shore, the most important thing is to participate and enjoy it.
