Historical win rate 90%, cumulative profit $33.7 million, 58bro.eth holds over $26 million in BTC and ETH short positions

Odaily reports: According to 58bro.eth monitoring, cross-market trader 58bro.eth (X: 0x58bro) recently bought multiple "No" shares in Polymarket's BTC September price prediction markets, including approximately 10,000 "No" shares on "BTC drops to $70,000 in September," with about $9,604 invested; approximately 8,578 "No" shares on "BTC reaches $95,000 in September," with about $8,180 invested; and 50,000 "No" shares on "BTC reaches $100,000 in September," with about $49,300 invested.

As of press time, the implied probabilities of the three "not reaching" scenarios are approximately 95.3%, 95.7%, and 98.85%, respectively. In July, he predicted BTC would not drop to $47,500 or rise to $75,000; in August, his predicted range was $60,000 to $100,000. This round of predictions raises the lower bound to $70,000 and narrows the upper bound to $95,000.

His 19 BTC and ETH monthly price predictions from July to August all achieved positive returns, with cumulative profits of approximately $12,700. All related positions were "No" shares, and most were bought when the corresponding probability exceeded 95%. Over the past three days, his BTC short position on Hyperliquid increased from 88.75 to 105.25 BTC; the combined value of his BTC and ETH short positions is approximately $26.137 million, with current unrealized losses of about $1.132 million. His cumulative profit on Hyperliquid is approximately $33.7 million, with a historical win rate of 90% and an average holding period of about 23 days per trade.