According to Odaily Planet Daily, the latest data from Polymarket's prediction market indicates that the market's expected risk of a US government shutdown this year has climbed to 86% (up from 85% earlier). This probability has continued to rise after last-ditch negotiations between Trump and congressional leaders failed to reach an agreement. Data from the Kalshi prediction market indicates an 83% probability of a US government shutdown, compared to approximately 70% before yesterday's White House meeting.