Odaily News The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting pointed out that the baseline policy path implied by option prices (representing mainstream market expectations) has shifted slightly downward during this period, indicating that there may be 1 to 2 interest rate cuts (25 basis points each) by the end of the year - only slightly more than expected at the March FOMC meeting. The probability distribution of the year-end interest rate implied by options has shifted to the left, and the downside risk has increased significantly. As the market believes that the downside risk of the policy interest rate has increased, the expected policy path implied by the futures market has been adjusted downward by a larger margin, indicating that there may be about 3 interest rate cuts before the end of the year. The median benchmark interest rate path shown in the market expectation survey has not changed much, and still indicates 2 to 3 interest rate cuts this year. However, the survey pointed out that the differences among respondents on the most likely policy path are widening. (Jinshi)