美股芯片半導體跌跌不休，到底要回調到什麼時候？

The recent sell-off in the memory chip sector of the US stock market can no longer be described simply as a "pullback." Last night, former chip star stocks like SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk continued to decline collectively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen from a high of over 14,600 points a month ago to its current level of over 10,400 points.

Now, all investors are asking the same question: How much longer will memory chips keep falling? Is the much-touted "All in AI" narrative still viable?

BIT Securities will analyze and answer this biggest doubt in the current market.

1. A Technical Bear Market is Confirmed

A so-called Technical Bear Market is a concept defined purely by price decline: when an index or asset falls 20% or more from a recent significant high, it is said to enter a technical bear market. It does not involve any fundamental judgment and only recognizes price.

Applying this to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), we can calculate the following numbers:

• On June 22, SOX hit an all-time closing high of 14,634.72 points.
• The bear market threshold line is: 14,634.72 × 80% = 11,707.78 points.
• On July 17, SOX closed at 11,673.89 points, officially breaking below the threshold and confirming entry into a technical bear market. The index has since continued to decline, currently touching 10,447.49 points, moving further away from the threshold line.

What does this number mean? It means the narrative of "All in AI, blindly buy semiconductors" has, at least in the short term, failed. The market is no longer a one-sided logic of "buy the dip," but has entered a phase where risks need to be reassessed.

2. The Bear Market Tells You How Much It Has Dropped, But Not How Long It Will Last

First, it must be clearly understood that a technical bear market is a "statement of fact," not a "predictive tool."

It tells you the index has fallen over 20%, but it cannot answer "whether it will continue to fall or where the bottom is." Historically, some technical bear markets have been the starting point for a V-shaped recovery, while others have been the beginning of a deep bear market. What's the difference? The core key lies in whether the source of selling pressure has been cleared.

There is almost a consensus in the market regarding the source of this round of selling pressure on memory chips: the South Korean stock market is undergoing a severe deleveraging process, and for the memory chip sector to stabilize, it will likely need to wait for this deleveraging to run its course.

Since the beginning of the year, South Korean retail investors have used margin financing and single-stock leveraged ETFs to aggressively bet on leading stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix. The balance of margin financing surged from 27.4 trillion KRW in early January to a peak of 38.6 trillion KRW on June 24.

However, the problem with leveraged ETFs lies in their mechanism: a mandatory daily rebalancing of "buying on up days, selling on down days." In an uptrend, they act as amplifiers, but once the trend reverses, they become meat grinders—declines trigger margin calls, failure to meet margin calls leads to forced liquidation, and forced liquidation selling pressure causes further declines. This is a classic negative feedback loop. Once it starts, it is hard to stop by will.

3. When Will the Deleveraging End? Watch Three Signals

This is the truly core question. Investors can focus on the following three directly observable indicators:

• Signal 1: Margin Financing Balance. From a peak of 38.6 trillion KRW (June 24) → decreased to 32.7 trillion KRW on July 23, but the decline is far from enough. This indicator needs to stop declining and show clear stabilization before signaling that the clearance of margin positions is nearing its end.
• Signal 2: Forced Liquidation Amount. Approximately 550.8 billion KRW in March → surged to 1.12 trillion KRW in June → dropped to 473.6 billion KRW in the first half of July. This is the most intuitive "bleeding volume" of deleveraging. It needs to continuously drop back to normal levels—for instance, below several hundred billion KRW per month—to be considered as stemming the bleeding.
• Signal 3: Volatility Index VKOSPI. This is the "fear gauge" for the Korean stock market, calculated from option prices on the KOSPI 200 index, measuring market expectations for drastic movements over the next 30 days. During this panic phase, it once soared to 5 times the VIX level and is currently still high at 85.66. Only when it falls back to a normal range can we say the "panic premium" in market pricing has been squeezed out.

4. Final Conclusion: The Process is Not Complete, but Mid-to-Late Stage Characteristics are Visible

From the latest market data, this wave of deleveraging is clearly not yet finished.

The KOSPI has triggered 9 circuit breakers this year, alternating dramatically between surges and plunges—this is precisely a typical characteristic of the mid-to-late stage of deleveraging: the peak of panic selling has passed, selling pressure is beginning to weaken, but the market structure is not yet stable, and any minor move can cause violent swings.

Let me summarize the above points one last time:

First, SOX broke below the 11,707.78-point threshold, confirming a technical bear market and ending the "All in AI" mindless narrative phase.

Second, the underlying driver of this decline is the forced clearance of leveraged funds in South Korea. The bottom depends not on where the price falls to, but on where the deleveraging process ends.

Third, monitor the clearance progress using three signals: stabilization of the margin financing balance, return of forced liquidation amounts to normal levels, and the VKOSPI falling back to its normal range. Based on circuit breaker frequency and liquidation data, we are currently in the mid-to-late stage of deleveraging—the most panic-stricken phase may be over, but the state of "unstable structure" means that buying the dip now is still a left-side trade.

For market participants, the most useful thing at this stage is not predicting the bottom's level, but establishing a discipline of "signal confirmation": control positions and leverage before the signals stabilize; only discuss deployment strategy after the signals are confirmed.

Addressing the complex market environment, the margin trading and options services launched by BIT Securities provide traders with multi-dimensional risk management and capital efficiency paths:

Margin Trading: Using margin buying can improve capital utilization during significant market pullbacks to participate in structural rebounds; using margin short selling can establish short positions in assets directly impacted by the price war and facing fundamental pressure, hedging downside risk of the portfolio.

Options: Traders can establish downside protection for their overall positions by buying put options (Long Put) to guard against unexpected macro negative news and liquidity shocks. They can also participate in the elastic returns of high-beta assets using a limited and fixed cost by buying call options (Long Call).

Risk Warning: Historical data does not represent future performance. This article is merely market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.