Data Review: How Much Profit Did Prediction Markets Reap from a World Cup?

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 2026 World Cup is over, and the prediction market is also facing a milestone evaluation.

Over the past six weeks, many users participated in trading match results, progression scenarios, and championship winners through prediction markets, adding another layer of real-time interaction to watching the games. Now that the tournament has concluded, Odaily Planet Daily will review the performance of leading prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun before, during, and after the World Cup from three dimensions: trading volume, fee revenue, and TVL.

The World Cup Pushed Prediction Market Trading Volumes to New Highs, But the Hype Did Not Sustain

Kalshi Maintains Lead, Polymarket Narrows the Gap, predict.fun Breaks Out via the World Cup

In terms of total platform trading volume during the World Cup, Kalshi still holds a clear lead. During the period, Kalshi's total trading volume reached $54.338 billion, while Polymarket was $20.988 billion, with the former being about 2.6 times the latter. However, looking only at World Cup-related events, the gap narrowed rapidly; Kalshi's related trading volume was $13.591 billion, while Polymarket reached $10.356 billion, making the former only about 1.3 times the latter. (Note: The trading volumes discussed in this article are all notional trading volumes.)

Historically, Polymarket's representative markets were more concentrated on the US election, cryptocurrencies, and geopolitical events. The World Cup further elevated the importance of sports markets on the platform, moving them from a supplementary category to a core trading segment. Kalshi's advantage lies in its more diversified trading structure; besides the World Cup, other sports events, political, and macroeconomic markets continue to contribute trading volume steadily, providing more scenarios to sustain activity after the tournament's end.

predict.fun's total platform trading volume during the World Cup reached $1.092 billion, with World Cup-related markets contributing $886 million. Although the overall scale still lags significantly behind Kalshi and Polymarket, for a platform that launched just over half a year ago, the nearly $900 million in trading volume brought by this World Cup has made predict.fun one of the most prominent new platforms to emerge from this event cycle.

Changes in Average Daily Trading Volume for Three Prediction Market Platforms Before, During, and After the World Cup

Kalshi saw the most significant increase in trading volume during the World Cup. Its average daily notional trading volume in May was $580 million, which rose to $1.393 billion during the tournament, an increase of about 140%. On July 22, trading volume fell back to $494.4 million, already below the average daily level in May.

Polymarket's change was similar in magnitude to Kalshi. Its average daily notional trading volume in May was $228 million, which increased to $538 million during the World Cup, an increase of about 136%. On July 22, trading volume dropped to $180.9 million, also below the pre-tournament level.

predict.fun started from a lower base, but the World Cup's impact was still clear. Its average daily notional trading volume in May was $14.7 million, which rose to $28 million during the tournament, nearly doubling. On July 22, trading volume was $13.2 million, essentially back to pre-tournament levels.

Judging solely by the one-day trading volume comparison after the World Cup, the growth brought by the World Cup seems more like a concentrated release of event-driven traffic, which did not maintain the platform's daily trading volume at a permanently higher level. Whether it can be lifted again depends on whether other sports events and non-sports markets can absorb the trading demand left after the World Cup's conclusion.

How Much Fee Revenue Did the World Cup Bring In for the Three Prediction Market Platforms?

Kalshi's Fee Revenue Steadily Increased Throughout the Tournament, Exceeding $100 Million in a Single Week in Week 4

Kalshi's fee revenue curve overall shows a strong upward trend. Revenue in the opening four-day period was $41.4 million, rising to $64.5 million in Week 1, further increasing to $82.7 million in Week 2, reaching $91.3 million in Week 3, and then stepping up again in Week 4 to a single-week revenue of $102.3 million, marking the highest point of the entire World Cup period. It slightly declined to $91 million during the final week. Throughout the World Cup, Kalshi's cumulative fee revenue reached $473.2 million.

The boost from the World Cup for Kalshi wasn't just about the initial attention at the start of the tournament; more importantly, it sustained the trading heat well into the latter half of the event. Breaking the $100 million mark in weekly revenue also signifies that Kalshi not only benefited from the World Cup in terms of trading volume but also effectively converted this wave of traffic into revenue at the platform monetization level.

Polymarket's Fee Revenue Was More Stable, but Did Not See the Same Accelerated Growth as Kalshi in the Latter Half

Polymarket's fee revenue trend was notably flatter. Revenue was $6.9 million in the opening four-day period, rising to $19.7 million in Week 1. Subsequently, revenue in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and the final week were $21.3 million, $21.4 million, $20.7 million, and $21.4 million, respectively. Throughout the World Cup, Polymarket's cumulative fee revenue reached $111.4 million.

Starting from Week 1, Polymarket's weekly fee revenue stabilized around the $20 million mark. While the World Cup did elevate Polymarket's fee revenue to a higher level, the platform did not continue to amplify this revenue as the tournament progressed past Week 2, unlike Kalshi; instead, it operated within a relatively stable range.

predict.fun's Fee Revenue Gradually Increased with the Tournament, Accumulating $3.48 Million Over Six Settlement Weeks

predict.fun's fee revenue is calculated based on the platform's settlement weeks, with cycles switching every Tuesday at 10 PM, thus not perfectly aligning with the World Cup's natural schedule from June 11 to July 19. The first settlement week was June 9 to June 16, including two days of pre-tournament data; the last settlement week was July 14 to July 21, also incorporating two days of post-tournament data.

Looking at the revenue trend, predict.fun's fee revenue for the first settlement week was $326,200. It then grew for three consecutive weeks, peaking at $755,300 in the period from June 30 to July 7, setting the highest single-week value during the World Cup cycle. It recorded $677,800 and $730,200 respectively in the following two weeks. Although it didn't hit new highs, it remained significantly above the levels seen at the tournament's start. The cumulative fee revenue over the six settlement weeks during the World Cup reached $3.4813 million.

In the settlement week before the World Cup, June 2 to June 9, predict.fun's fee revenue was only $159,400. Entering the World Cup cycle, the first week's revenue immediately rose to $326,200, an increase of about 105%, and most subsequent settlement weeks further rose above $500,000. Even though the first and last cycles included some pre- and post-tournament data, the boost from the World Cup to predict.fun's fee revenue was still significant.

After the World Cup Ended, Fee Revenue Generally Declined Across the Three Platforms, with Kalshi Seeing the Smallest Drop

Kalshi's average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was $12.13 million, falling to $11 million on July 22, a decline of 9.3%. Among the three platforms, Kalshi had the smallest post-tournament decline; although fee revenue fell from its peak during the event, it remained close to the average daily level seen during the World Cup.

Polymarket's decline was more pronounced. Its average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was $2.86 million, falling to $1.7 million on July 22, a drop of 40.5%. The incremental revenue brought by the World Cup to Polymarket was relatively concentrated, and this increment quickly receded as the tournament concluded.

predict.fun's average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was approximately $83,000, falling to $53,000 on July 22, a decline of 36.1%, a drop similar in magnitude to Polymarket's. Although the calculation methods differ slightly from the first two, the post-tournament trend is still clear. The World Cup's pull on predict.fun's fee revenue was significant but also receded relatively quickly after the tournament's end.

The World Cup Did Not Boost Polymarket's TVL, While predict.fun Saw Inflows in the Latter Half of the Tournament

Polymarket's TVL did not rise in tandem with trading volume during the World Cup. At the beginning of May, the platform's TVL was around $410 million, and it subsequently remained within the $440 million to $480 million range for most of the time. After the World Cup started, TVL still fluctuated around this level. Although it briefly rose at the end of June and early July, it did not form a continuous upward trend.

After mid-July, TVL began to decline noticeably, falling to around $400 million by the end of the World Cup, and it has now further decreased to approximately $340 million. While trading volume surged during the tournament, the capital deposited on the platform actually decreased after it ended, indicating that the World Cup generated more high-frequency trading demand but did not simultaneously translate into long-term retained funds.

predict.fun's trend was more stage-dependent. At the start of May, its TVL was around $20 million. It dipped to about $10 million in mid-May, then hovered around $15 million until mid-June. In the early stages of the World Cup, TVL did not immediately rise. It only began to recover rapidly in early July, climbing to the $20 million to $25 million range in the latter half of the tournament, reaching a local peak around the tournament's conclusion.

After the event ended, TVL gradually declined and is currently around $17 million, but still higher than the low point in late June. Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's capital changes were more closely linked to the progression of the World Cup, especially with more noticeable capital inflows during the knockout stages.

(Note: As TVL data for Kalshi is not available on-chain, this section only discusses Polymarket and predict.fun.)

Summary

The World Cup indeed brought substantial trading volume and fee revenue to the prediction market, but the post-tournament data also shows that this growth did not naturally sustain itself. The average daily trading volume and fee revenue for all three platforms declined after the event, and Polymarket's TVL also continued to fall. While mega-events can concentrate and amplify trading demand in the short term, they do not necessarily directly boost a platform's long-term activity levels.

However, the benefits of the World Cup were not limited to short-term data. It at least proved that sports events can continuously provide high-frequency, short-cycle trading scenarios for prediction markets, and it also allowed more users to form a habit of repeated trading over consecutive games.

The World Cup has ended, but the competition surrounding user retention, market supply, and normalized trading operation has only just begun.