Bitcoin Adjustment Signal Confirmed, HYPE Long-Short Divergence Intensifies｜Special Analysis

This week, Bitcoin's daily-level wave A rebound may have peaked on July 21, with the market transitioning into a wave B adjustment phase; HYPE remains at a critical battleground around the key resistance zone of $60 to $63.5, with the path forward still unclear. Below is a review of BTC and HYPE's multi-timeframe structures for this week, operational strategies, and market verification of last week's short-term trades, for reference.

Core Insights for This Week's Trading:

• BTC Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC This Week's Market Forecast & Mid/Short-term Strategies (Detailed in Part 2)

• HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE This Week's Market Forecast & Short-term Strategy (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategy & Core Insights:

• BTC Market Forecast Verification: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending its first daily-level wave (Wave A) rebound near $67,300. This prediction has been accurately verified by the market.

• BTC Short-term Trade Performance: Bitcoin successfully completed one short-term short trade (1x leverage) last week, achieving a return of approximately 1.70%. (Detailed in Part 5)

• HYPE Market Forecast Verification: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounds early in the week, it could be seen as a pullback confirmation after breaking below the key support zone ($62 to $63.5). So far, market movement aligns highly with our assessment.

1. Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis

1. Bitcoin Daily-Level Structure Analysis (Based on analysis after May 6):

Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

①, As shown in Figure 1: The corrective trend that began from the May 6 high of $82,850 has presented a four-wave adjustment structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

②, Analysis from the daily structure: The first wave (Wave A) rebound, which started from the July 1 low of $57,820, may have ended on July 21, reaching a rebound height of $66,955.

③, If the Wave A rebound has concluded, the market is currently undergoing the Wave B adjustment phase. After the Wave B adjustment ends (with the precondition that the adjustment low does not break below $57,820), a potential Wave C rebound may follow, which might challenge the resistance zone near $67,300 again.

2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Level Structure (Using 4-hour chart):

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

①, Within the 4-hour timeframe framework, the rebound from the July 1 low (Endpoint 44, ~$57,820) to July 21 (Endpoint 51, ~$66,955) is clearly divided into seven waves: (44-45) to (50-51). Among these, five waves overlap: (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), (49-50), forming a "five-wave" central pivot E.

②, According to structure analysis: Comparing the entry leg (44-45) and exit leg (50-51) of central pivot E, it's clear that the rebound momentum of the exit leg is significantly weaker than that of the entry leg, indicating a momentum divergence. Therefore, the rebound starting from "Endpoint 44" likely ended at "Endpoint 51," with a high probability of subsequent adjustment.

③, The adjustment from "Endpoint 51" has evolved into two waves: (51-52) and (52-53). The current trend can be seen as a pullback confirmation phase after the price broke below $65,700.

2. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast & Operational Strategy

1. BTC Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

Core Insights for This Week:

①, Focus on the test result of price pullback near $65,700.

②, Watch for support strength when the price tests the $60,950 to $61,500 zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700 to $67,300 area (Previous key resistance)

• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 to $71,000 area (Previous key resistance)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $63,700 (Previous key support)

• Second Support Zone: $60,950 to $61,500 area (Previous key support)

• Third Support Level: Near $57,820 (Previous key support)

4. This Week's Operational Strategy (Excluding sudden news impacts)

①, Mid-term Strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively breached the "long/short channel," confirming a market structure shift to a bearish dominance pattern. According to our established trading plan: upon observing a stagnation signal near $67,000 along with a top signal from our proprietary quantitative model, we strictly executed the strategy, increasing mid-term short positions to approximately 40%.

②, Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of position, set stop-loss points, and seek "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute charts as operational timeframes).

③, For short-term operations, we have prepared two specific contingency plans (A/B) in advance to dynamically adapt to the market's complex evolution.

Plan A: Tentative Shorting near Strong Resistance Zone.

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700 to $67,300 zone and meets resistance, coupled with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan B: Light Long Position near Strong Support Zone.

• Entry: If the price adjusts to above the previous low of $57,820 and shows signs of stabilization, coupled with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price rebounds near a key resistance level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis

Figure 4: HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

1. As shown in Figure 4, HYPE's adjustment from its July 7 high of $72.97 to the present (Endpoint 61 to Endpoint 71) can be subdivided into a ten-wave correction structure on the 4-hour chart. Among these, five waves overlap – 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, 66-67 – forming a "five-wave" downward central pivot.

2. The market is currently running the (70-71) rebound wave. Two potential scenarios may follow:

Path 1: $56.47 marks the end of the adjustment, initiating a recovery. The adjustment starting from July 7 ($72.97) ending on July 24 ($56.47) is complete. The current rebound is a technical recovery phase for this decline.

Path 2: Building a "Downward Central Pivot" to Continue the Downtrend. A new "downward central pivot" is currently being constructed. Subsequently, the market will continue its original downward trend, breaking below the previous low of $56.47 to seek further support.

3. In summary, close attention should be paid in the short term to the test result of the $60 to $63.5 resistance zone and the defense strength of support near $56.47. The outcome of the battle at these two price levels will serve as the key basis for determining which path the market will take.

4. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast & Short-term Strategy

1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

①, Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $60 to $63.5 area

• Second Resistance Zone: $68 to $69.5 area

• Third Resistance Level: Near $72.97

②, Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $56.47;

• Second Support Zone: $52 to $55 area;

Core Insight for This Week: Closely monitor the test results of price against the $60 to $63.5 resistance zone and the support strength near $56.47.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week: If the price rebounds to the $60 to $63.5 zone and emits a clear adjustment signal, investors are advised to consider entering a light short position, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline, and controlling position size within 20%.

5. Bitcoin Short-term Trade Performance Review

Strictly following our operational plan based on trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we completed one short-term short trade last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 1.70%.

1. Short-term Trade Record: (See Table 1) Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details Summary:

Table 1

2. Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near $67,000 and showed a stagnation signal, the K-line formed a "Top Division" pattern.

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (white dot + green dot), followed by the signal band (blue) on the chart breaking below the skyline (green), emitting a bearish signal.

This coincided with adjustment signals from the "Momentum Quantitative Model." Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $66,319.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price dropped near $64,500 and showed a stabilization signal, the K-line formed a "Bottom Division" pattern.

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive bottom warning signals (red dots), followed by the signal band (orange-yellow) on the chart breaking above the horizon (magenta), forming a bottom convergence signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position near $65,192.

• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 1.70%.

3. Short-term Trade Schematic

Figure 5: BTC 60-minute K-line Chart (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Notes:

1. When opening a position: Set an initial stop-loss immediately.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the breakeven point (cost price) to ensure principal safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the price thereafter, move the stop-loss by 1% accordingly to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets are highly volatile. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. The viewpoints, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.